# The insurance puzzle

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by flyingwind, Nov 8, 2011.

1. ### flyingwindWell-Known Member

Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?

3. ### tthreeBanned

That's Ten value cards -9 all other cards +4. IC of 1.0 or perfect. Take insurance at TC +16 if I remember right.

4. ### neversplit5sActive Member

Here's an even simpler "perfect insurance count":

Tens are -2; everything else is +1.
IRC = -4 multiplied by the number of decks
Insure when the count is positive; don't when it's negative (at zero it's break-even)

5. ### Mersenne TwisterMember

I found this somewhere.

"true counted" unbalanced insurance count,
IRC(initial running count) = -4*(number of decks)
count tag for non-tens are +1
count tag for tens are -2

when 6 deck, total 312 cards.
C : number of cards dealt
N: number of non-ten cards dealt
T: number of ten cards dealt
number of cards in shoe = 312-C
number of decks in shoe = (312-C)/52
RC = -24+N-2T
N+T = C
probability of insurance win = P

after some calc,
TC=52*(-24+C-3T)/(312-C)
then (52+TC)/156=
by computation,
=(96-T)/(312-C)
this is equal to density of ten cards in shoe =P

Kelly optimal insurance bet = BR*(3P-1)/2=
by computation,
=BR*TC/104

6. ### NAPWell-Known Member

Like the post immediately before yours?

7. ### Mersenne TwisterMember

My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for

Someone can sim?

8. ### bejammin075Active Member

You'd have to be counting with two different sets of card tags. You gonna keep track of all that? Like 8 and 9 will be neutral with your Hi-Lo, but you'll count them as +1 with your insurance count? Good luck!

9. ### Mersenne TwisterMember

How about 2-man-team at same table?

10. ### NAPWell-Known Member

Now you're talking. :cool2:

12. ### blackjack avengerWell-Known Member

related ?

Anyone know what the -2 +1 ins count is worth on top of halves or even hi Lo?

13. ### flyingwindWell-Known Member

That was what I was originally asking, although the exact answer may not matter so much (to me now). Thanks AM for correcting some of my statements. I realized some of the more correct ways to view this, too, after some meditation.

14. ### blackjack avengerWell-Known Member

Did u say meditation?
Great another hippie
Joking:laugh: