the mathmatical effect of backcounting

[standard toaster]

I know i have seen this a million times and I know the effect is a great one but I was wondering exactly how much it effects the counter. I couldent find it in my search.
It is harder to explain things you think you know to someone else in great detail without exact numbers

 

[EasyRhino]

Reading Blackjack attack is probably the best way.

Avoiding negative counts has two positive effects:
1) Increases win rate, because you're not losing money in negative counts
2) Decreases variance, because you're playing fewer hands (even small bets will add to your variance)

Both the win rate and lower variance help reduce your risk of ruin. With that reduced, you could actually bet more and maintain your previous ROR, and by betting more, you increase your win rate even further.

Basically, I'm saying it's magic.

 

[standard toaster]

Reading Blackjack attack is probably the best way.

Avoiding negative counts has two positive effects:
1) Increases win rate, because you're not losing money in negative counts
2) Decreases variance, because you're playing fewer hands (even small bets will add to your variance)

Both the win rate and lower variance help reduce your risk of ruin. With that reduced, you could actually bet more and maintain your previous ROR, and by betting more, you increase your win rate even further.

Basically, I'm saying it's magic.

Thanks for the reply rhino but I was looking more for a Sim result type of response. I know how great it is but how great in #,% detail is what I am after.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Reading Blackjack attack is probably the best way.

Avoiding negative counts has two positive effects:
1) Increases win rate, because you're not losing money in negative counts
2) Decreases variance, because you're playing fewer hands (even small bets will add to your variance)

Both the win rate and lower variance help reduce your risk of ruin. With that reduced, you could actually bet more and maintain your previous ROR, and by betting more, you increase your win rate even further.

Basically, I'm saying it's magic.

Regarding 2), it depends. In large stores it is easy to Wong out of negative counts and go to new shoes. This can actually increase the amount of money you get down on the tables because you're seeing more positive counts. One of the worst parts about playing negative counts is you're not playing positive ones. That's why even if you're backcounting and not betting anything it's valuable to walk away from negative shoes.

 

[EasyRhino]

Sim result type of response.

Blackjack Attack.

 

[callipygian]

I was looking more for a Sim result type of response. I know how great it is but how great in #,% detail is what I am after.

Ugh, there are so many variables that go into a sim that you're going to be disappointed with whatever comes out. That being said, here are some numbers.

Base game: 8 deck shoe, H17, LS, RS, RSA, DOA, DAS, 3:2 BJ.
Count system: Hi-Lo

Flat betting
EV per hand: -0.00569
Average bet: 1

Spreading (1,1,2,4,8)
EV per hand: +0.00080
Average bet: 1.37

Wonging out at -1, flat betting
EV per hand: -0.00223
Average bet: 1

Wonging out at -1, spreading
EV per hand: +0.00624
Average bet: 1.46

Note that EV per hand is slightly different than what most people consider EV; mathematical nitpickers will divide the EV per hand by average bet in order to get traditional EV - money won divided by money bet.

 

[White Guy]

I am still trying to figure out how to figure units and EV if you are strictly wonging in at say +5 and out at +1 flat betting $100-200. $100 when it drops to less than 3 and out below +1. Is that a good game plan? What would ROR be on 10k BR vs 20k??
Thanks

 

[callipygian]

I am still trying to figure out how to figure units and EV if you are strictly wonging in at say +5 and out at +1 flat betting $100-200. $100 when it drops to less than 3 and out below +1. Is that a good game plan? What would ROR be on 10k BR vs 20k??
Thanks

Ugh, I thought you wrote +5/-1 instead of +5/+1. I'm not going to redo it all, so you'll have to live with my results.

8D, H17, DOA, DAS, RS, RSA, LS, 3:2 BJ, Hi-Lo, 75% penetration

-0.006 0.0004 0.0248
-0.0045 0.003 0.0495
-0.0021 0.0072 0.0963

Play all (100% of total hands were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,1,1,1
EV per hand: -0.0060
Average Bet: 1.0 units

Play all (100% of total hands were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,2,2,2
EV per hand: -0.0045
Average Bet: 1.1 units

Play all (100% of total hands were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,2,2,4,4
EV per hand: -0.0021
Average Bet: 1.2 units

Wonging in at 0, Wonging out at -1 (81% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,1,1,1
EV per hand: -0.0022
Average Bet: 1.0 units

Wonging in at 0, Wonging out at -1 (81% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,2,2,2
EV per hand: -0.0004
Average Bet: 1.1 units

Wonging in at 0, Wonging out at -1 (81% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,2,2,4,4
EV per hand: +0.0027
Average Bet: 1.3 units

Wonging in at +1, Wonging out at -1 (60% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,1,1,1
EV per hand: +0.0004
Average bet: 1.0 units

Wonging in at +1, Wonging out at -1 (60% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,2,2,2
EV per hand: +0.0030
Average bet: 1.1 units

Wonging in at +1, Wonging out at -1 (60% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,2,2,4,4
EV per hand: +0.0072
Average bet: 1.4 units

Wonging in at +5, Wonging out at -1 (2% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,1,1,1
EV per hand: +0.0248
Average bet: 1.0 units

Wonging in at +5, Wonging out at -1 (2% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,1,2,2,2
EV per hand: +0.0495
Average bet: 1.9 units

Wonging in at +5, Wonging out at -1 (2% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,2,2,4,4
EV per hand: +0.0963
Average bet: 3.6 units

Note that total hands played over total hands seen is not entirely accurate, since I counted backcounting and Wonging out to be the same (which I shouldn't have done since Wonging out usually means you leave the table). Oh, well.

Edit: Oh, crap. I copied the wrong EV's over. These numbers are all for NO INSURANCE bets. The numbers go up if you bet insurance correctly, and the larger your bet spread, the more it goes up. I'll try and fix it later.

Edit 2: Fixed for insurance.

 

[EasyRhino]

a) WG, you might want to download powersim from the blackjacforum site. It's free and you can run your own sims.

b) Waiting until TC +5 is too late. Wong in at more like +2 or +3, and wong out at 0 or -1.

 

[White Guy]

Wonging in at +5, Wonging out at -1 (2% of total hands seen were played)
Bet scale: 1,1,2,2,4,4
EV per hand: +0.0963
Average bet: 3.6 units

Man you are a calculator..
Does this basically say that if I wong in at +5 betting four units than decrease to one unit at 0 and wong completely out at less than 0 thats my EV.. That is how I understand it but how would I figure my units? Usually for multideck I figure my units based on my minimum bet and my max is twelve units which is 1% of my total roll. Would I figure a one to four spread with my Min bet being $50 and max being $200 based off of a 20k roll? Would my ROR be less than a 15$-$200 spread wonging out at -1?? If I wong out at less than +1 I am sure it would go down vs. a play all wong out at -1. But than also I would play far less hands so could I double my bet to $400 at 5+ and down to $100 at +1 and wong out at less than +1 to receive an ROR and EV the same as spreading 1-12 play all wong out at -1 with $200 max bet 20k roll??
my head is hurting..
What is a good book I can find to cover this? I know Bjack Attack but is there something that covers more of the win rate and ROR?? Basically I would like to figure a conservative hourly estimate based off of a 20k Broll strictly wonging to figure if trips to Vegas will pay.. How would all this change if I wong in at +3 and out at 0? Man too much thinking for one sitting. I will download that software and give it a try.
Thanks For The Help ER and CP

 

[Kasi]

Thanks for the reply rhino but I was looking more for a Sim result type of response. I know how great it is but how great in #,% detail is what I am after.

Well, it's like everyone says.

If BCing you play fewer rounds per hour, your avg bet in units is less. You have fewer units in a SD/rd but more $'s per round and hour.

The big thing is you can increase your unit size 10 to 100 times or so compared to playing-all and have the same risk.

In other words, you could spread $5-$80 (1-16) playing-all or $75-$300 with the same risk and same roll in the same game kind of thing.

Probably didn't help you much lol but it's all about how much you bet, how often and with what advantage or not when you bet.

 

[Kasi]

IWhat would ROR be on 10k BR vs 20k??
Thanks

Dou8bling your $roll, thereby doubling the number of units in your original roll, will make your new ROR the old RoR times the old ROR. In the same game betting with same $spread etc lol.

At least in play-all lol. I think lol.