Hello to all my Comrades and Comradettes, I am fairly new to the whole CC thing and I am trying to discover how an edge really functions before I try it live. Here is the question: If we have a method that produces a 1% edge during certain occasions, (call them Y type hands) in BJ, if am betting 1 unit during the NON Y hands and 5 units during the Y hands, is my overall Long term edge 1% or is it 5%, or some number in between that. For the purpose of the calculation let's say the Y hands compose 20% of all hands on average. In other words does raising the bet during an edge actually amplify the overall edge?? On the surface it seems to me the answer is Yes but I can't wrap my head around it. Any help would be greatly appreciated. thanks, bklyn
The mechanics of an edge
- Thread starter bklynkid222
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Welcome to the forum. I think the best thing for you to do at this point is to read a really good beginner card counting book. Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong would be a good one to help you start to wrap your head around these type of concepts. I`ll briefly answer your questions, but from how you phrased them, it sounds like you`re going to need to do that or something very similar to really get a strong understanding of it all. If I really delved deep into what you`re talking about, I`d be writing a ton and I wouldn`t be able explain it as well as the book I mentioned (among others) would. We all have to start somewhere. Anyway, here we go... Your long term edge in card counting is going to be around 1%. When you mentioned the Y hands being 20% on average, you were actually really close in how the distribution goes, but it gets way more complicated than just that. I say you were close because the true count will be between -1 and +1 around 65% of the time. So over half the time you`re playing in what`s basically a neutral count. 17.5% of the time the count will go out of that range and more negative and 17.5% of the time it`ll go out of that range and more positive. But to various extents though; your edge on any upcoming hand will be determined by the exact composition of cards left to play. So when you have an edge sometimes it`ll be less than 1%, sometimes it`ll be more than 1%. But overall in the long run you`ll have around a 1% edge if you play correctly. How you phrased your last question is a little off compared to how it works, so I`ll just say this: raising your bet when you have an edge is what gives you your edge in the long run. You have to bet more when you have the edge, because that`s how you overcome blackjack being a negative expectation game. The bigger your bet spread (the more you bet when you have the edge), the more you`ll be able to make up for the hands you played that have a negative expectation, hence the more you`ll win over time. My explanations here were very generalized, so that`s why I say you`ll really have to delve in deeper to understand.
Yes, your thoughts are reasonably accurate. Your biggest problem in this thread is going to be sifting through the reams of unimportant drivel that will ensue. So, if you can avoid all the chaff, the wheat is as follows.
Suppose you are at a -2% edge 20% of the time; a -0.5% edge 60% of the time; and a +2% edge 20% of the time. How can you make money? Clearly, if you play all the hands (you don't have to!) and there are 100 per hour, you will make a one-unit bet (call it $1) on all the negative-edge hands, for a total of 80 such wagers. And you will lose, on average, $20 x (-.02) + $60 x (-0.005) = $0.70 on those 80 hands. How can you make that back and more, to show a profit?
On the 20 hands that you will have a 2% edge, you need to bet more than $1! Suppose you bet $5. Then you will have a 2% edge on a total of $100 wagered (20 hands x $5 per hand), for a $2 profit. When you subtract the $0.70 you lost on the losing hands, your overall profit for 100 hands is $1.30, which represents a global edge of 0.72% on all the 100 hands played ($1.30 profit on total of $180 wagered).
The more you bet when you have the edge (you'll always bet one unit when you don't have the edge), the greater your overall profit will be.
Clear?
Don
Suppose you are at a -2% edge 20% of the time; a -0.5% edge 60% of the time; and a +2% edge 20% of the time. How can you make money? Clearly, if you play all the hands (you don't have to!) and there are 100 per hour, you will make a one-unit bet (call it $1) on all the negative-edge hands, for a total of 80 such wagers. And you will lose, on average, $20 x (-.02) + $60 x (-0.005) = $0.70 on those 80 hands. How can you make that back and more, to show a profit?
On the 20 hands that you will have a 2% edge, you need to bet more than $1! Suppose you bet $5. Then you will have a 2% edge on a total of $100 wagered (20 hands x $5 per hand), for a $2 profit. When you subtract the $0.70 you lost on the losing hands, your overall profit for 100 hands is $1.30, which represents a global edge of 0.72% on all the 100 hands played ($1.30 profit on total of $180 wagered).
The more you bet when you have the edge (you'll always bet one unit when you don't have the edge), the greater your overall profit will be.
Clear?
Don
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When this is in a spreadsheet it is easier to realize:
Screenshot from the YouTube video, "Why you need $10,000 to earn $10/hr Card Counting".
I'd like to cooporate with anyone interested in helping make something like this available. and add in the math for variations in rules. I'd also like to get access to the exact % of PLAYER ADVANTAGE for each True Count...If you can share a link that would be great.
Screenshot from the YouTube video, "Why you need $10,000 to earn $10/hr Card Counting".
I'd like to cooporate with anyone interested in helping make something like this available. and add in the math for variations in rules. I'd also like to get access to the exact % of PLAYER ADVANTAGE for each True Count...If you can share a link that would be great.
Lots of good info here. I just joined the forum, and have been out of the game, so to speak, for many years. I learned, and actually became quite proficient, at using the Revere Advanced Point Count System back in the 70's. I just sold my house in Los Angeles and bought a home in Las Vegas. I look forward to learning as much as I can from everyone here on this forum.
I am retired, and looking to learn a level 1 CC system. What is a good one for me to learn?
Roger
I am retired, and looking to learn a level 1 CC system. What is a good one for me to learn?
Roger
Hi-lo is the most popular level 1 count. If you were proficient at Revere though, even if it was long ago I`d still try that count out again and see how you do with picking it back up.... It might come back to you way more easily than learning an easier count just because of the familiarity. No reason in taking a step backwards to a weaker count if you don`t have to.
Hello Don, I have gone through what you mentioned here and I think I grasp it so thank you very much for the expert breakdown. I would like to apply that logic to a different "system" pay off matrix per se. to understand some of the outputs that would flow from it. Let's say that I have a method that produces the following long term result "structure": During 66% of the hands dealt I have a - 1/2% edge against me, call it "X" type hands and for the remaining 33% of the hands I have a + 1/2% edge for me, call those "Y" type hands. Using the logic you provided I did the calculation with a $1.00 to $10.00 spread. On X types I bet $1.00, on Y types I bet $10.00.
So here it is 66 hands X $1.00 X -.005= minus 33 cents. & 33 hands X $10.00 X +.005= +$1.65 Agreed ?? If true, then my global edge as you call it is $1.65 - .33 = $1.32 over 100 hands, or also +1.32 %, (with the 1 to 10 unit ratio)
My questions are about the outputs: If what I stated above is really my global edge, is that the number I should use for risk of ruin calculations?? I mean when I ask what is my long term real "edge" should I count it as +1.32% with the above scenario??
My second question is what is my average earning rate at a certain dollar bet level? In this case I factored an example in the following way: Since there are no $1.00 min tables where I play, I assumed these values: $3.00 for the X type hands and $30.00 for the Y type hands which I think gives me this result in terms of average dollars earned per 100 hands. So here we go (math genius that I am) ::
66 X $3.00 X -.005 = minus 99 cents & then 33 X $30.00 X +.005 = +$4.95 so we see the per 100 hand average comes to + $3.96, I think. Is that right??
My last question is, should I factor my bankroll based on my average bet size Or should I factor it based on my large bet size of $30.00 in this example, because as you know, the framework is always If I have an edge of "A"% and I want a 90% chance of playing forever, I will need "B" units of capital, so which size unit?? the average unit or your max unit?? Again thank you very much for this wonderful forum, bklyn
So here it is 66 hands X $1.00 X -.005= minus 33 cents. & 33 hands X $10.00 X +.005= +$1.65 Agreed ?? If true, then my global edge as you call it is $1.65 - .33 = $1.32 over 100 hands, or also +1.32 %, (with the 1 to 10 unit ratio)
My questions are about the outputs: If what I stated above is really my global edge, is that the number I should use for risk of ruin calculations?? I mean when I ask what is my long term real "edge" should I count it as +1.32% with the above scenario??
My second question is what is my average earning rate at a certain dollar bet level? In this case I factored an example in the following way: Since there are no $1.00 min tables where I play, I assumed these values: $3.00 for the X type hands and $30.00 for the Y type hands which I think gives me this result in terms of average dollars earned per 100 hands. So here we go (math genius that I am) ::
66 X $3.00 X -.005 = minus 99 cents & then 33 X $30.00 X +.005 = +$4.95 so we see the per 100 hand average comes to + $3.96, I think. Is that right??
My last question is, should I factor my bankroll based on my average bet size Or should I factor it based on my large bet size of $30.00 in this example, because as you know, the framework is always If I have an edge of "A"% and I want a 90% chance of playing forever, I will need "B" units of capital, so which size unit?? the average unit or your max unit?? Again thank you very much for this wonderful forum, bklyn
Your math is correct for getting the edge. But you also need the variance (or standard deviation) to calculate the risk of ruin, as that is part of the ROR formula.
Once you calculate the variance (see BJA3, p. 20), you can then get ROR (pp. 112-113).
Finally, armed with the above, you can play around with different bankrolls to see what the ROR would be for each. Or, at this point, you can also use Norm's online calculators, which will crunch all the numbers for you.
Don
Once you calculate the variance (see BJA3, p. 20), you can then get ROR (pp. 112-113).
Finally, armed with the above, you can play around with different bankrolls to see what the ROR would be for each. Or, at this point, you can also use Norm's online calculators, which will crunch all the numbers for you.
Don