The NO RETREAT BJ scheme is winning

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#41
shadroch said:
If you are playing a game with a house edge of 1% that means that on average you will lose a penny on each dollar bet in the long run.Ten cents on ten dollars,A dollar on one hundred dollars,ten dollars on a thousand.
It doesn't matter if you are betting X,Y,2X,5X,3Y,whatever,in the long run you will lose 1% of the money you wage.The only way to overcome the house edge is to change the game to your advantage. You can do this by counting,by wonging,by hole carding,shuffle tracking,or a few other methods. Altering you bets based only on the results of the last hand is just not going to change the house edge.Thousands of people with math backgrounds far beyond mine have tried for hundreds of years to develop a system that will overcome the houses edge. No one has.You can accept that as fact,or you can find out the hard way.
so it seems. that's a nice post IMHO shadroch. even this apparently has no value for blackjack:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parrondo's_paradox
if only there was a way to tap into positive standard deviation and avoid negative standard deviation :rolleyes:
 
#42
bluewolfcry said:
...don't get it
Next time you go to the casino put one in your pocket !


http://www.luckymojo.com/horseshoe.html

THE HORSESHOE


Without a doubt, the most commonly encountered lucky charm in modern North America is the horseshoe and its representative models in the form of jewelry, wall hangings, and printed images.

This little horseshoe, shown here life-size, is actually a hand-forged pony shoe that my daughter Althaea and i discovered and dug out of the ground one day in 1976 while we were walking an old logging trail through the woods in the Missouri Ozarks. It probably dates from the 1910s to 1930s.

The use of worn-out horseshoes as magically protective amulets -- especially hung above or next to doorways -- originated in Europe, where one can still find them nailed onto houses, barns, and stables from Italy through Germany and up into Britain and Scandinavia. Additionally, wall hangins made in the form of horseshoes are common. In the Middle-East, one finds the terra cotta blue-glazed horseshoe plaque. In Turkey small metal or blue glass horseshoes are blended with the protective all-seeing eye to form a unique apotropaic charm i call the horseshoe-and-eyes that is believed to ward off the evil eye.

There is good reason to suppose that the crescent form of the horseshoe links the symbol to pagan Moon goddesses of ancient Europe such as Artemis and Diana, and that the protection invoked is that of the goddess herself, or, more particularly, of her sacred vulva. As such, the horseshoe is related to other magically protective doorway-goddesses, such as the Irish sheela-na-gig, and to lunar protectresses such as the Blessed Virgin Mary, who is often shown standing on a crescent moon and placed within a vulval mandorla or vesica pisces.

In most of Europe, the Middle-East, and Spanish-colonial Latin America protective horseshoes are placed in a downward facing or vulval position, as shown here, but in some parts of Ireland and Britain people believe that the shoes must be turned upward or "the luck will run out." Americans of English and Irish descent prefer to display horseshoes upward; those of German, Austrian, Italian, Spanish, and Balkan descent generally hang them downward.

In regions where the horseshoe is placed facing upward, folks believe the horseshoe must point up "or the luck runs out." In places where it is hung facing downward they say exactly the opposite -- "it must point down so the luck can pour onto you." However, in its function as an amulet for magical protection, especially over the doorways of barns and stables, the horseshoe usually points downward and it is said that "no witch will pass under it." The "Good Luck" horseshoe image i use on my web pages came from a 1940s American printer's stock cut book, probably drawn and engraved by a German-American, hence the horseshoe points downward.

What does the difference in directionality mean? I think that in most of the world it is the horseshoe ITSELF that is lucky and protective -- whereas in England and Ireland the horseshoe is seen as a mere "collector" of luck from above. There are other regional and cultural differences in horseshoe beliefs, too:

In Italy, for instance, when a horseshoe is nailed by the side of the door (not above it), directionality is not considered important, but what IS important is that the horseshoe was actually used -- worn and discarded by a horse -- that it was found in the road or in a field, not purchased, and that the person who enters the door can touch it.

In Mexico, used horseshoes are also prized, but instead of being touched for luck or protection, they are wrapped in colourful rayon thread, decorated with sequins and holy prints of the horseback-riding San Martin Caballero, wrapped in vinyl, and backed with a prayer or a magical incantation called El Secreto de la Virtuoso Herradura.

The distinctions between luck, protection, religion, and magic are nowhere more ambiguous than in the uses of the horseshoe amulet. Although actual horseshoes still serve a magically protective function when nailed above a door, modern horseshoe jewelry is worn not for its protective aspects but for its "lucky" power. In particular, due to a natural association with horse-racing, the miniature horseshoe has become something of a gambler's lucky charm. Furthermore, because horseshoes resemble horseshoe magnets, printed images of horseshoes -- especially on magical or spiritual product labels aimed at African-American hoodoo practitioners -- are often shown "drawing" money to themselves as if they partook of the powers usually ascribed to lodestones.

For representations of horseshoes in various lucky and protective contexts, see the following pages:


actual horseshoes, miniature horseshoe models, and horseshoe sculptures
 
#44
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sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#45
shadroch said:
Bet more on the hands you win,and less on the hands you lose.
Seems so simple,no?
in essence that's the idea lol. how to do that is apparently not so simple.
maybe you could look at positive and negative standard deviation in the long run as a well behaved sine wave. but in the short run what it is is a sum of chaotic waves when added together produce the well behaved sine wave.
maybe the trick would be to understand the nature of the chaotic waves and the nature (if there is one) of how they add together. :rolleyes: :confused:
 

Attachments

#46
shadroch said:
If you are playing a game with a house edge of 1% that means that on average you will lose a penny on each dollar bet in the long run.Ten cents on ten dollars,A dollar on one hundred dollars,ten dollars on a thousand.
It doesn't matter if you are betting X,Y,2X,5X,3Y,whatever,in the long run you will lose 1% of the money you wage.The only way to overcome the house edge is to change the game to your advantage. You can do this by counting,by wonging,by hole carding,shuffle tracking,or a few other methods. Altering you bets based only on the results of the last hand is just not going to change the house edge.Thousands of people with math backgrounds far beyond mine have tried for hundreds of years to develop a system that will overcome the houses edge. No one has.You can accept that as fact,or you can find out the hard way.
I see. Thanks shadroch!
 
#47
The short term is a different breed of animal compared to the iconic long run. Beating the dealer becomes more of an arcane art, similar to an improvised jazz riff. While not a classical approach it stll may approach elegance.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#48
shadroch said:
Bet more on the hands you win,and less on the hands you lose.
Seems so simple,no?
If I could time travel I wouldn't waste it on a blackjack; lotteries like Megamillions and Powerball are easier and more lucrative.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#49
Jack_of_Tirades said:
The short term is a different breed of animal compared to the iconic long run. Beating the dealer becomes more of an arcane art, similar to an improvised jazz riff. While not a classical approach it stll may approach elegance.
yea the short term seems to be a bunch of random parts of a puzzle. the more parts you put together over time the more the nature of the puzzle becomes apparent.
but your idea of beating the dealer as an arcane art is of interest to me in
certain cases. especially those cases where we so often find ourselves pitted
against crappy games and conditions. i mean one can really work ones self half to death trying to beat such games with orthodox techniques and end up getting virtually no where. now if you have really decent conditions the orthodox methods are pretty good. unfortunately conditions are often not so stellar.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9818
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=10046

i think your comming to similar questions and ideas such as those i read in your posts in the thread Is beating the game subjective?
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=10165
where you try and get some loot out of those csm's. hard row to hoe for sure but short of some rocket scientist understanding of the csm the idea of going at it as an arcane art with some understanding of orthodox advantage play methodology seems a noble enough dream.
i guess the question becomes is it possible that in addition to certain proven
robotic like orthodox approachs is there room for the thoughtful application of
creative approachs as well. the short term with it's seeming luxury of apparent 'wiggle room' shrouds it's self in the apparent hope that it may be possible.
a gamble no doubt.
 
#50
sagefr0g said:
where you try and get some loot out of those csm's. hard row to hoe for sure but short of some rocket scientist understanding of the csm the idea of going at it as an arcane art with some understanding of orthodox advantage play methodology seems a noble enough dream.
i guess the question becomes is it possible that in addition to certain proven
robotic like orthodox approachs is there room for the thoughtful application of
creative approachs as well. the short term with it's seeming luxury of apparent 'wiggle room' shrouds it's self in the apparent hope that it may be possible.
a gamble no doubt.
Exactly wisefrog--the first rule of csm is consider the machine your friend--do not paddle against the current. The second rule is tread water until you find the streak. The third rule is know when the streak has run its course. The fourth rule is leave the table with a profit. The fifth rule is if you did not leave the table with a profit then leave the casino with a profit. The sixth rule is do not place your faith in progressive betting schemes. The seventh rule is when in the black place your faith in reasonably random spreads. The eight rule is enjoy the house’s money. The ninth rule is when facing an unmovable force leave the casino with a small loss. The tenth rule is rinse and repeat until they (the evil empire) no longer consider csm their idolatrous panacea.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#52
:cool2:
Jack_of_Tirades said:
Exactly wisefrog--the first rule of csm is consider the machine your friend--do not paddle against the current. The second rule is tread water until you find the streak. The third rule is know when the streak has run its course. The fourth rule is leave the table with a profit. The fifth rule is if you did not leave the table with a profit then leave the casino with a profit. The sixth rule is do not place your faith in progressive betting schemes. The seventh rule is when in the black place your faith in reasonably random spreads. The eight rule is enjoy the house’s money. The ninth rule is when facing an unmovable force leave the casino with a small loss. The tenth rule is rinse and repeat until they (the evil empire) no longer consider csm their idolatrous panacea.
rule 1......mmmm a bit difficult to swallow. so ok we gonna gamble any who..
rule 2..... mmmm yeah ok.
rule 3..... mmmm might just be an inexact science. lets call it arcane art :rolleyes:
rule 4 .....mmmm another arcane art form. lol
rule 5 .....mmmm can we modify that to leave casino with positive EV? so maybe we amble over to a beatable game and play like a good lil robot for a spell. :)
rule 6 .....mmmm no arguement here.
rule 7 .....mmmm i guess your talkin playing the csm here still. uhmm yes & no i think maybe i'd bet up only say if a load of low cards came out and the dealer lets the discard tray pile up for a while. blantantly sit out hands. or better yet stand, don't play and watch then throw in a bet if the discard tray is heavy with low cards. thats random enough for me lol. if the dealer doesn't let the discard tray pile up walk away to a random shoe game. lol.
rule 8 ....mmmm the best rule yet. :rolleyes:
rule 9 ....mmmm maybe this should be rule 1 lol
rule 10...mmmm let's replace that one with Shad's rule 11. :cool2:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#53
sagefr0g said:
:cool2:
rule 1......mmmm a bit difficult to swallow. so ok we gonna gamble any who..
rule 2..... mmmm yeah ok.
rule 3..... mmmm might just be an inexact science. lets call it arcane art :rolleyes:
rule 4 .....mmmm another arcane art form. lol
rule 5 .....mmmm can we modify that to leave casino with positive EV? so maybe we amble over to a beatable game and play like a good lil robot for a spell. :)
rule 6 .....mmmm no arguement here.
rule 7 .....mmmm i guess your talkin playing the csm here still. uhmm yes & no i think maybe i'd bet up only say if a load of low cards came out and the dealer lets the discard tray pile up for a while. blantantly sit out hands. or better yet stand, don't play and watch then throw in a bet if the discard tray is heavy with low cards. thats random enough for me lol. if the dealer doesn't let the discard tray pile up walk away to a random shoe game. lol.
rule 8 ....mmmm the best rule yet. :rolleyes:
rule 9 ....mmmm maybe this should be rule 1 lol
rule 10...mmmm let's replace that one with Shad's rule 11. :cool2:
Aslan's Rules

Rule One - Gamble only to the extent necessary (Life's a gamble -- it can't be avoided!)

Rule Two - Never bet money where the odds are prohibitive. A 1% edge is fine if you have time to spare, but if you need the money now, never bet with less than a 10% edge.

Rule Three - Never bet a man at his own game; he knows something that you don't.

Rule Four - Don't cheat. It's the only way to always win, but it's a fools way of life. Remember, what goes around, comes around.

Rule Five - Gambling is not entertainment. Always remember the empty feeling you had when you lost way more than you intended. Trying your luck is like dodging raindrops in a rainstorm hoping not to get wet.

Rule Six - If you like the excitement of gambling, you will soon learn that losing is exciting, too. Gambling addicts can't tell the difference. If you need gambling to feel alive, face it, you're not living. Correct your life, not your bankroll.

Rule Seven - Gamblers mostly remember the good times. Believe me, they have to live through a whole lot of crap to have anything worthwhile remembering!

Rule Eight - If you find yourself on a losing streak -- stop, pull back. Get aways from it for a while. Reassess what you're doing. Don't drop a bundle; set yourself a loss limit. Get your mind refreshed. Enjoy life. Return when you feel completely rejuvenated and on top of it.

Rule Nine - If they say you have no heart, that you're a locksmith, that you don't have any gamble in you -- consider it the highest form of praise. Let the suckers strut around with their Machismo, their boasting, and their entire life-savings in their pocket, ready to get busted at a moment's notice.

Rule Ten - Life is good -- don't gamble it away. Enjoy your family, your friends, your possessions. Help other people in need -- go ahead, it enriches your life. And if someone offers you a deal too good to be true, well, you know the rest....
 
#54
Update on my NO RETREAT betting scheme

Have now completed 15 sessions, counting even a weekend trip of playing as one session, so many hrs completed. 14 wins and one loss for net win of $2340. Playing now with $600 session bankroll, double deck, at $10 minimum tables. Start the new shoe at $10 bets, upping bets on each win and stopping at $20 max which is double the starting bet. No regression, up each bet by one unit,i.e.$5, on each win until get at $20 max and keep at $20 until the end of the shoe, then start over at minimum bet on the next shoe and follow the same scheme. Since I have stopped at $20 max, have gone undefeated in eight sessions, originally went up one unit on each win with no max so sometimes I got in the $30-$50 range which was too much at risk for my bankroll. This is a steady, consistent winner and had a unusually good $600 net win recently. I have the unusual theory that it is possible to beat this game despite the house edge, with the proper bankroll and betting scheme and playing only double decks with good rules. WITHOUT having to count with all that aggravation and the risk of ruin with the big bets on the favorable counts.
 

The Stork

Well-Known Member
#56
What makes you so confident

When we win, we seems to become unlogical. When we lose some hysterical.
You win 80 percent and suddenly you lose everything in one session. One time more....

WHEN YOUR EXPECTATION IS NEGATIVE YOU WIN SOMETIMES. IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING TO YOUR LONGRUN EXPECTATION. IT IS STILL NEGATIVE IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ANY IDEA WHERE YOU ARE DURING THE SHOE OR PITCH GAME.

Keep your money in your pocket and go play chess or act like a pro.
it is better to be smart and lose than winning and thinking you are smart.

Stork :)
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#57
The Stork said:
When we win, we seems to become unlogical. When we lose some hysterical.
You win 80 percent and suddenly you lose everything in one session. One time more....

WHEN YOUR EXPECTATION IS NEGATIVE YOU WIN SOMETIMES. IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING TO YOUR LONGRUN EXPECTATION. IT IS STILL NEGATIVE IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ANY IDEA WHERE YOU ARE DURING THE SHOE OR PITCH GAME.

Keep your money in your pocket and go play chess or act like a pro.
it is better to be smart and lose than winning and thinking you are smart.

Stork :)
well said Stork! and may i add we can always dream. it don't cost nothin lol.
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#58
Blindfolded

Please correct me if I'm wrong but a counter may have huge swings in his game due to variance correct. If a bs player is playing a losing game to start by the house edge correct. For all cause and effect the bs player will lose less than the counter correct in the short run. Before I ever atttempted to count years ago I used a similiar system of betting up on the wins and base bets when losing. I had some good results sometimes and sometimes not,mind you I never really tracked the results. I know now that it's losing propisition but I never really did a sim on this theory. I would think in theory your high bets would be at your winning percetages of your hands. Your low bets would occur more often at your losing percentages of your hands. Not knowing where your count is in the shoe would be like walking down a path blindfolded hoping you don't fall off. blackchipjim
 

Harman

Well-Known Member
#59
davidmcclung said:
Have now completed 15 sessions, counting even a weekend trip of playing as one session, so many hrs completed. 14 wins and one loss for net win of $2340. Playing now with $600 session bankroll, double deck, at $10 minimum tables. Start the new shoe at $10 bets, upping bets on each win and stopping at $20 max which is double the starting bet. No regression, up each bet by one unit,i.e.$5, on each win until get at $20 max and keep at $20 until the end of the shoe, then start over at minimum bet on the next shoe and follow the same scheme. Since I have stopped at $20 max, have gone undefeated in eight sessions, originally went up one unit on each win with no max so sometimes I got in the $30-$50 range which was too much at risk for my bankroll. This is a steady, consistent winner and had a unusually good $600 net win recently. I have the unusual theory that it is possible to beat this game despite the house edge, with the proper bankroll and betting scheme and playing only double decks with good rules. WITHOUT having to count with all that aggravation and the risk of ruin with the big bets on the favorable counts.

Hey man, don't let anyone get you down. Enjoy it whilst it lasts, maybe you have invented the first long term success progressive system. Just remember what we told you when it all goes wrong
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#60
Sure, go for it David.

I like betting systems, always interested in just how often they may "win", i.e produce a desired win goal by betting in such-and-such a way with so many units of roll.

I see absolutely no problem whatsoever with anyone who chooses to win x a higher percentage of the time by betting a certain way than, say, flat-betting. Why the heck not?

That's what betting systems do. They win a desired goal more often. If a guy is maybe only going to play 10,000 spins, roll the dice 10,000 times, play 10,000 hands of BJ it might even make alot of sense.

You got 1000 units and want to win 10 units 98.5+% of the time at craps, why not? It could be hundreds and hundreds of hours before you lose the original 1000 units. And that's alot crappier of a game than BJ but only even money pay-offs. Think how often a 5000 unit roll might win or the liklihood of another 1000 unit roll with twice the original unit of recovering the original 1000 unit should it be lost at some point in time.

These guys that want to spread 12-1 in some basically crappy game with $500 but would be real happy with winning $50 at a $5 table on an occasional nite, might be alot better off using a betting system in a -EV game and 100 unit roll at games like craps and roulette where they have a very high chance of achieving that goal.

It's always "eventually you'll lose" (and one will, make no mistake, lol) - but it's never "you got a 50-50 chance of being ahead 3000 hours from now" on the chance that that's maybe all one may be asking for in the first place.

Even the guy who lost his money to the Wiz betting on his betting system was, I think, still ahead 168,000 hands later. That could be a lifetime's play for alot of people who might just be real happy with breaking even after all those hands.

Maybe there's a Voodoo thread here because it maybe it actually may have a place in this world.

Woohoo for Voodoo lol.
 
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