the pendulum swings

[kewljason]

Well folks, I recently vowed to not share my experiences in such great detail, but since I have shared much of my recent successful swings, I thought I would mention that I just had my worse single day in my 7 years of play, just to let anyone who was reading my posts and thinking I win all the time, know that is most definitely not the case. The pendulum swings both ways.

I am not going to go into any details about locations, types of games or events that happened during play, but I will tell you that I left home with 380 units and after a small win on my first session, dumped 280 units at my second stop. That is among my worse single session beatings. After a pit stop at home to refuel my daily BR, I lost another 165 units over the next 4 sessions for a total daily loss of 445 units. My worse single day loss and not quite that same feeling I experienced after last months extreme outcome. Lol But I am having a very decent year, so it's just part of the ride.

Seems I have been experiencing some much wilder swings of late than I have previously in my career, and I can only conclude that this extreme fluctuation is the result of some better condition, mostly penetration that I have been lucky enough to play of late. Deeper pen means more high counts with high wagers and unfortunately, sometimes you lose these. Lol

This experience shows the need for a substantial bankroll, that I thought might be helpful to our rash of new members.

 

[Friendo]

This is a nice counterpoint to all the posts from people claiming to win most or all of their sessions: "I win about 85% of the sessions I play"; "I'm worried I might be 86'ed because I always win at this particular store"; "I play until I am ahead for the day"; "I am the greatest counter in the world, so I always win."

I only wish it had been less costly to you.

Thanks.

P.S.: Dumped 170 units over the past 5 sessions. At first I was filleted on high counts. Then I spent a few hours being cuisinarted on endless low counts - at one point I realized that I had won fewer than 10 double downs in 6 hours. Only 1 of those 5 sessions was a winner, and it was 25 minutes long.

My favorite moment: stood near an eight-deck shoe which spat out nothing but small cards for a few rounds. Wonged in, flat-bet my maximum for a few rounds, and lost every single hand.

I have no idea how anyone claims that they win the vast majority of their sessions.

 

[Severity8]

Ouch my biggest fear is that negative varience will cannabalize my BR before it's able to support itself.

 

[kewljason]

Ouch my biggest fear is that negative varience will cannabalize my BR before it's able to support itself.

I posted some thoughts a while back that kind of go against the grain. During my first 5 years of full time play, most of my play took place in AC, where the games and penetration are very mediocre at best. Most would say poor. During most of that time I experienced rather steady winning results. Very minimal swings. Basically my results chart looked like a very small, but steady incline. No wild swings. Poor penetration means fewer big plus counts and fewer big bet opportunities, So no big wins , no big losses. a seemingly smoother ride, but in the end a smaller winrate as well.

In retrospect I feel that may have been beneficial as at the beginning I was very underfunded and just didn't really know it. I was playing a smaller unit at the time, but a large negative swing like I just experienced would have all but wiped me out and I would probably be punching a time clock somewhere today.

So I don't want to encourage anyone to seek inferior conditions, but it could have that benefit. Will be interesting to hear other experienced players thought on the matter, although I suspect they may not agree with me. (won't be the first time...:laugh

 

[zoomie]

I posted some thoughts a while back that kind of go against the gain. During my first 5 years of full time play, most of my play took place in AC, where the games and penetration are very mediocre at best. Most would say poor. During most of that time I experienced rather steady winning results. Very minimal swings. Basically my results chart looked like a very small, but steady incline. No wild swings. Poor penetration means fewer big plus counts and fewer big bet opportunities, So no big wins , no big losses. a seemingly smoother ride, but in the end a smaller winrate as well.

In retrospect I feel that may have been beneficial as at the beginning I was very underfunded and just didn't really know it. I was playing a smaller unit at the time, but a large negative swing like I just experienced would have all but wiped me out and I would probably be punching a time clock somewhere today.

So I don't want to encourage anyone to seek inferior conditions, but it could have that benefit. Will be interesting to hear other experienced players thought on the matter, although I suspect they may not agree with me. (won't be the first time...:laugh

I think you are right about pen - less pen = less variance - but the other ingredients of inferior conditions certainly lower EV but probably not variance.

 

[ohbehave]

This is a nice counterpoint to all the posts from people claiming to win most or all of their sessions: "I win about 85% of the sessions I play"; "I'm worried I might be 86'ed because I always win at this particular store"; "I play until I am ahead for the day"; "I am the greatest counter in the world, so I always win."

Those that make posts like that are trolls and never last long here.

 

[Most Interesting Man]

I feel your pain Kewl. My worst was a drawdown of about 350 units with most of it gone in one session. All my largest fluctuations have been during sky high counts. That's when the big bets are out and have been out for a large chunk of the shoe. As the count keeps climbing someone's gonna get the low cards.

 

[DirtHawker]

Thanks for the post, Kewl. This is important stuff for everyone to know is real and not just theoretical, that even a highly practiced and skilled counter will hit big neg variance.

Almost anyone can get the mechanics down, even in the casino environment - bankroll management and longevity separates the men from the boys.

 

[Gamblor]

Yeah same here. After about 15 sessions with only a couple of moderate losses, mostly big wins (around 60 units per session) and sprinkling of small wins, I just went through a streak of 5 sessions losing on average 50 units per session. Did a little re-evaluation of my game, had a small loss, and finally got in a decent win (40 units).

Nice when the storm passes

 

[BJgenius007]

Well folks, I recently vowed to not share my experiences in such great detail, but since I have shared much of my recent successful swings, I thought I would mention that I just had my worse single day in my 7 years of play, just to let anyone who was reading my posts and thinking I win all the time, know that is most definitely not the case. The pendulum swings both ways.

I am not going to go into any details about locations, types of games or events that happened during play, but I will tell you that I left home with 380 units and after a small win on my first session, dumped 280 units at my second stop. That is among my worse single session beatings. After a pit stop at home to refuel my daily BR, I lost another 165 units over the next 4 sessions for a total daily loss of 445 units. My worse single day loss and not quite that same feeling I experienced after last months extreme outcome. Lol But I am having a very decent year, so it's just part of the ride.

Seems I have been experiencing some much wilder swings of late than I have previously in my career, and I can only conclude that this extreme fluctuation is the result of some better condition, mostly penetration that I have been lucky enough to play of late. Deeper pen means more high counts with high wagers and unfortunately, sometimes you lose these. Lol

This experience shows the need for a substantial bankroll, that I thought might be helpful to our rash of new members.

How could you lose so much in one day? I spread $25 to $450 in shoe game. So my max bet is 18 units. Theoretically if I split three times and double on each, I could lose 114 units in one hand. But it never happened. I can only remember I put 54 units on the table. And it happened very scarcely. If I lost 100 units in one day, I will call it a day.

 

[moo321]

It happens. And it's quite nasty, but it also comes back, and when it does it comes back fast.

I had a period of about 6 months one time where I didn't fail to win 100 units every time I set foot in a casino.

 

[Gamblor]

445 is excessive for one day, but certainly possible. Lets say you have 5 bad shoes in a row where your losing 5 out of 6 of max bets (say x15), that's about 300 units. Throw in bad double downs and splits, and can get up there pretty quick.

 

[kewljason]

How could you lose so much in one day? I spread $25 to $450 in shoe game. So my max bet is 18 units. Theoretically if I split three times and double on each, I could lose 114 units in one hand. But it never happened. I can only remember I put 54 units on the table. And it happened very scarcely. If I lost 100 units in one day, I will call it a day.

You lose (or win) so much in one session by playing a good heads up game with the dealer or even with one other person. If the count gets high early and you are you are placing your max bet by mid shoe, you can easily get 20-25 max wager hands, with better than average penetration. Usually the win/loss hands ratio is fairly even, and you hope to win more than your share. Occasionally, the gods smile on you and you win far more than your share resulting in a very quick monster positive swing and sometimes unforetunately, it goes the other way. That's how.

At the end of the year my results will be all about the number of hands I was able to play, so when ever possible I try to get these heads up situations. with a good dealer you can bang out 100 hands in two 6 deck shoes in about 20 minutes. You can't get that all the time. I don't even try as doing so would mean always playing the graveyard/early morning shift and I like to spread my play and hours around. But a few of these oportunities every week can really bump up your hands per hour average, which directly translates to $ per hour. Unforetunately the downside is a wilder ride with wilder swings. ya take the good with the bad. Higher EV in the long run trumps short term wild swings (if properly bankrolled and mentally prepared).

 

[Machinist]

Unit shmunit!!!!!! It's all about gettin the money on the table. I like to say fluctuations (variance for u bj people) is a wonderful thing!! Keeps the rifraff at bay........
Bankroll,bankroll,bankroll...........proper funding is the key, then fluctuations are irrelevent and and worrying or sweating your br is nuttin.
If you were betting a penny as a unit, would we even be having this conversation?
If there is a good gig going , why would youhave a unit stoploss??
Perfect example would be a 2 to 1 BJ promo, would you quit because of some variance???
Machinist

 

[Eye of the Tiger]

Unit shmunit!!!!!! It's all about gettin the money on the table. I like to say fluctuations (variance for u bj people) is a wonderful thing!! Keeps the rifraff at bay........
Bankroll,bankroll,bankroll...........proper funding is the key, then fluctuations are irrelevent and and worrying or sweating your br is nuttin.
If you were betting a penny as a unit, would we even be having this conversation?
If there is a good gig going , why would youhave a unit stoploss??
Perfect example would be a 2 to 1 BJ promo, would you quit because of some variance???
Machinist

You talk a good game. I understand proper funding. You say it ain't nuttin well I say it ain't so. The man just lost $11,125 large in one day. That's about 5% of his bankroll I would guess. It's works on your mind whether you believe it or not that's why people quit. You can pull out all the math you want but in the real world it just don't work sometimes. I seen people loose a lot more then that when the dealers are hot, unless you want to burn up your BR it time to call it a day. One of my worst times at the tables was that I was burning through a $1,000 every 15 minutes at a $50 min table. What is your worst nightmare at the machines?

 

[blackchipjim]

Beat downs!

O yeah, we all know the beat downs occur and it isn't pretty. Makes you think sometimes like just walking thru the front door and throwing the bills into the air so it goes to people who may need it. Bankrolling is the biggest factor to ride the waves even if the shark keeps biting the end of your paddle off. Can't tell you how many times I wondered if I was really cut out to be an ap. I bought me a voodoo doll and everything is ok now, 6ft blonde with a killer set of....

 

[Machinist]

You talk a good game. I understand proper funding. You say it ain't nuttin well I say it ain't so. The man just lost $11,125 large in one day. That's about 5% of his bankroll I would guess. It's works on your mind whether you believe it or not that's why people quit. You can pull out all the math you want but in the real world it just don't work sometimes. I seen people loose a lot more then that when the dealers are hot, unless you want to burn up your BR it time to call it a day. One of my worst times at the tables was that I was burning through a $1,000 every 15 minutes at a $50 min table. What is your worst nightmare at the machines?

Hey Eye of der tiger!! I'm not raggin on anyone at all......Been in this business for a mighty long time time.
The point I'm makin is 11g isno big deal to warren buffet,,right. KJ isn't sweating to much yet, but he would sweat a lot less if he had double his bankroll,right? Also remember he did post about his variance up , and a resulting backoff??
All I'm sayin is know the math, bet accordingly and you will be fine. I can't count the times when I was starting out that I questioned myself on a huge flux down.!!!
If someone burned up his BR in one day........well he really didn't have a BR did he.
Time in the trenches is huge, every year your an AP, brings you closer to being bored outa your gourd with this crap. The rush of a huge bet, the spin of a 5 dollar slot, 5$ 5play VP,,,,,,boring,,,,,it becomes a job, nothing more.
I remember starting out in this stuff 1994, what a rush,,!!!,,,,,now......eh the magic is gone once ya know how the illusion is done
I'm really can't go into my largest flux, but it was at 5$ tripleplay VP with a 10 man team. You can do the math on vp fluxuations..... Heck I sweated more on single line .25 VP in the early years...LOL.....But the br was proper, as was the payoff.
All I'm sayin is you get used to fluxuations over time. If your BR is proper, your games r good, and your good at what ya do.
Ask KJ how he feels now after 7 years or so, compared from when he first started in this racket. Heck...ask AM or Flash or bojack or a dozen other guys that have been in this crap for a long time.
Take care

Machinist

 

[assume_R]

I posted some thoughts a while back that kind of go against the grain. During my first 5 years of full time play, most of my play took place in AC, where the games and penetration are very mediocre at best. Most would say poor. During most of that time I experienced rather steady winning results. Very minimal swings. Basically my results chart looked like a very small, but steady incline. No wild swings. Poor penetration means fewer big plus counts and fewer big bet opportunities, So no big wins , no big losses. a seemingly smoother ride, but in the end a smaller winrate as well.

In retrospect I feel that may have been beneficial as at the beginning I was very underfunded and just didn't really know it. I was playing a smaller unit at the time, but a large negative swing like I just experienced would have all but wiped me out and I would probably be punching a time clock somewhere today.

So I don't want to encourage anyone to seek inferior conditions, but it could have that benefit. Will be interesting to hear other experienced players thought on the matter, although I suspect they may not agree with me. (won't be the first time...:laugh

So I'm sure you ran simulations when you played in AC versus when you moved to Vegas. Did your Variance variable go up a lot? i.e. were you prepared for these big swings in advance based on simulating higher penetrations? Or were you just a bit lucky in the first 5 years of your career with a slow steady ride?

 

[kewljason]

The man just lost $11,125 large in one day. That's about 5% of his bankroll I would guess.

$11,125 is not 5% of my BR! Maybe that's my problem. I know that I am properly bankrolled for the games I am playing and these two recent extreme swings (one in each direction) are on the far side of norm, but maybe increasing my BR even further to increase my comfort level is the answer.

So I'm sure you ran simulations when you played in AC versus when you moved to Vegas. Did your Variance variable go up a lot? i.e. were you prepared for these big swings in advance based on simulating higher penetrations? Or were you just a bit lucky in the first 5 years of your career with a slow steady ride?

As I stated, before I was definately underfunded early on, and didn't really even know it, so looking back, yes of course I was lucky.

And yes I have ran sims on the games I now play. Being prepared? I think that's a little tricky. Knowing that things can and will happen and actually experiencing them for the first time are quite different. I have said that about extended losing periods where you drop a percentage of BR over several months. I said that last year when I went through a basically flat 8 months period of not winning nor losing much just playing day after day with nothing to show for it, while money keeps going out. And now in a short span of just over a month I have had my two biggest single day and single session swings, one in each direction, I say it again. You can run sims and read about all of these things, but are you ever really prepared for the actual experience? As Machinist points out, knowing you have the bankroll is a great comfort, but it doesn't eliminate some of the anxiety, especially the first time some of these events happen. Some of these things, you just have to work through a few times to become comfortable with them. The actual experience of some of these things is something you can't learn in a book or on a message board. I guess 7+ years in I am still learning some of these lessons. Maybe I am a slow learner, but I will get there.

 

[newbctr]

Jason,

Here is my advice from my recent success, even though you think I am a fake...

The + playing conditions are indeed critical. If you want to reduce your variance, try the "progressive ploppy" approach. Never increase your bet after a loss, and never decrease after a win. When spread to 2 hands, this is defined as net cash win on hand. This will drop your win rate a good amount, but adds cover fairly significantly, and you can increase your spread 2 more X (i.e. 12 >> 14) to compensate for the lost E(R). Ever since I did this, my variance dropped considerably, and my % of winning days went up a lot. I recall early on, before playing this way, having shoes where I lost ~100 units. These have been extremely rare since I did this. Check Ian's book for further explanation.

I am obviously well aware that each hand is independent and "streaks" don't exist, but clusters of losing hands do exist, and by increasing bets further when you are losing, no matter how good the count, you are increasing both exposure and variance.

Hope this helps buddy...