The rollercoaster that is card counting

[KewlJ]

Through the years (13 now) I have shared some of my experiences, good, bad and ugly, of my journey of supporting myself through advantage play....mostly card counting with some supplemental machine stuff thrown in. It was my hope that sharing my experiences could benefit other members, just as I have benefited from so many others in the community sharing their knowledge and experiences.

Today I want to share some of my younger brother's year, his second year of full-time card counting and first playing green to black stakes. Last year, I started him at low limit, red stakes play to gain some experience, just as I began my career playing red chip level. I figure (and my own journey told me) if you can learn to win against the crappy, crowded $5 and $10 games, you are well on your way to finding bigger success.

So after his initial red chip year in which he made about 9 grand, but spent more than he earned (that's not going to work for long ), I set my brother up playing green to light black to start this year, playing a rotation of better than two dozen casinos. His starting BR, which was what was left over from last years play, win and spending more than won....was not adequate for his new level of play. But I was prepared to add to his BR as needed (I just never told him so), assuming I felt he was heading in the right direction and I am not talking about profit/loss.

As good fortune would have it, he jumped out of the gate very strong, never needing any additional BR from me. He was running 4-5 times ahead of expectation most of the early months, ending the first 6 months about 3 times ahead of expectation. Over $60,000 profit vs EV of about $20,000. Pretty sweet! By the end of June his major concerns were, should he buy a new car, and get his own apartment? I tried hard to put the brakes on his enthusiasm and ground expectations, but I am not sure I was getting through.

Where I was struggling to keep his enthusiasm grounded, Lady Luck (or Mother Variance) did. As the calendar turned to July and the second half of the year, the rollercoaster peaked and headed downhill. $13,000 losses in a few days. As we talked through his experience, we both learned he fell victim to some bad judgment in chasing losses, a hard lesson to learn....but one that must be learned.

He spent the better part of the next three months in a slow grind, a very different experience than his first half of the year and by the end of September was just about were he was at the end of June, having made up that 13 grand. And in the 10 weeks since, he has continued that slow grind and entered the final month of 2016 ahead $68, 000. But only ahead $8000 since July.

So in this one year, his second of fulltime cad counting, he experienced the whole rollercoaster ride that is card counting. 1.) An incredible 6 month run far above expectation, 2.) a substantial loss backwards, 3.) A slow crawl back from that hole, and 4.) a period of 10 weeks running just about expectation.

From my perspective, it has been an amazing year for him both educationally and financially as he is still about 50% above expectation for the year. ....and there are still 4 weeks to go!! Who knows what he will get to experience?? I have thoroughly enjoyed watching it all unfold and watching him go through this educational process (with lots more of that process to go). He is a little more focused on and feeling a little down about how the last 5 months have gone. I am trying to get him to look at the whole pie, not just a piece of it and see and appreciate how well he has done overall.

 

[sagefr0g]

@KewlJ
very much enjoyed that story. so true and like real it is. so many things, so many things anyone needs to keep ahead of, like you mentioned, dealing with that wild roller coaster ride, chasing loss's, gaining competence at whatever gig, and handling ones own inclinations far as handling the value one gains, sorta thing. particularly liked your statement about getting him to look at the whole pie, not just a piece of it.
some other stuff he needs to be wary of or thoughtful about is to be wary of the sneaky lure of gambling, we all know it, we all stand against it, but most anyone has some gamble in them and it can be insidious in a small shadowy way for those such as us who are so often inside the walls of the casinos. another thing, is our fellow man, friends and foes alike, gotta watch them, keep our selves in line far as following or being led, sorta thing. toe the line far as gray areas and the dark side.
again, great story.

 

[Talmadge]

Thanks Kewlj for the update on your brothers second half of the year. I had often been wondering how he has been doing since your first report. I'm glad it has been a good year for him financially and also experiencing the ups and downs of the game first hand, a real test in oneself. I was wondering if he experienced much heat this year at these levels? Thanks

 

[Ryemo]

KJ,

Good to hear that your brother is doing well in yr #2. Just make sure he stays focused on the EV vs the short-term results when he starts getting ideas about splurging financially. Sounds like you've got him on the right track. You just never know when that negative variance will show it's ugly side. I have a good friend that went on a nightmare of a down swing this year. Similar figures to your brother's, but negative. I'm happy to report though that this person pretty much recovered though. But it was a battle.

I saw some big swings myself this year. Had a couple lower to mid five-figure swings early this year (one positive, then one negative) and I'm currently in the middle of a high five-figure upswing, ever since. I'm gearing up to take my last (longish) trip of the year. Hoping that nothing too crazy happens.

 

[Meistro]

it's a random walk

 

[Ryemo]

I'm gearing up to take my last (longish) trip of the year. Hoping that nothing too crazy happens.

Update:

Took my last long trip of the year and everything went great! Booked a 5 figure win and came out probably 4xEV. Great way to end the year, right?

Then it happened... I had a very short trip planned out, shortly afterwards, solely for the purpose hitting numerous casinos in a line and cashing out a lot of free play. I had to do a lot of driving for this trip.

I was not even expecting to play blackjack on this trip, but took some cash with me, just in case. I got to one of my destinations and decided to give it a shot and play some BJ. I've never had problems at this property and have always played rated here. This joint is very tolerant, so I decided to take a break from driving and maybe play a couple hrs. Things started off rocky from the very beginning. Long story short... I ended up playing a marathon session and booked my biggest loss. Dropped more than 20K and finally gave up so I could get back on the road. Got some heat initially, but I think the fact that I dumped so much delayed any kind of BO.

Great way to end the year, lol. On a positive note, I'm still ahead of EV for the year. Even though that was a big hit I took in one horrible session, I won't need to re-size my bets or anything. It's just annoying. I mention this because I remember the post you made on BJ21, KJ. "dealing with the big loss." I can say that I know what that feels like now. Lol

 

[LV Bear]

Good time for such a loss:

One year I lost a big chunk of money in December (about 40% of my year-to-date profit), which reduced the amount I had to pay to IRS. I say “fortunate,” because if you have to a big loss, it would be best under these circumstances. -- MathProf

Bankroll Accounting & Tax Liability

 

[xengrifter]

I was not even expecting to play blackjack on this trip, but took some cash with me, just in case. ..... Dropped more than 20K and finally gave up so I could get back on the road.

What was your total BR and max-bet size?

 

[Ryemo]

What was your total BR and max-bet size?

A little more than 100K and 2x500 max. I was playing a DD game.

 

[sagefr0g]

@Ryemo
what was the table min? how many standard deviations was that loss?

 

[Ryemo]

@Ryemo
what was the table min? how many standard deviations was that loss?

I haven't simmed it yet, but I will soon. Table min was $25, but I was typically spreading 2x50 to 2x500. Pen worsened as time went on. I assume maybe they suspected that I was counting, so I started to see some center cuts. If I had to guess, I'd be willing to bet that the BO never came because I dumped so much. After that, I started getting more aggressive and I would drop to 1x25 in neg counts and would even Wong out completely in deeply negative counts. But no matter what I did, I just couldn't grind my way out.

Eventually I got too tired to play and I was starting to get low on funds. It was only supposed to be a 24 hr (mostly driving only) trip, so my trip roll was limited.

 

[KewlJ]

In my initial post in this thread, I shared a bit of my younger brother's rollercoaster ride in 2016, his second year of full time card counting blackjack play. In keeping with the theme of this thread, "the rollercoaster that is blackjack card counting", I want to share a bit of my 2016, especially the closing months.

I entered 2016, my 13th year of supporting myself from card counting and a little supplemental AP play, $130k short of a million dollars earned in my career. From 2012 thru 2015, I had averaged $104,000 a year in total AP earnings, That is my blackjack card counting plus half of a bit of machine play supplemental stuff that my partner and I do. So for me to hit that little milestone of a million dollars earned, in 2016, I would need to come in significantly above expectation. But I had hit that $130k amount needed, twice before in my career, in 2012 and 2013, so it was not out of the question.

So the first half of 2016 was pretty unremarkable for me. My blackjack numbers were mildly below expectation. Then in July and August, I caught fire, racking in some pretty big wins, I neared that magical, yet meaningless milestone, that for some reason, I was spending too much time obsessing about. The first week in October it happened. After I small winning day my career earnings were $1100 above the million dollar mark! Que the celebration!

That day in early October was my last ATH (all time high). I was above the 1M mark for a total of about 20 hours. It was like the BJ gods and/or Lady Variance allowed me to touch that mark and then began slapping me around. For the final 3 months of 2016, I went backwards. No major 5 figure losing days which often occur during one of my downturns, just constant small losses, always retreating from that ATH. I ended the year 34 grand off that ATH. And the first few days of 2017, I have continued that slide and am now 36,000+ off that ATH.

Now I have had 3 different backwards slides that lasted 5 months or longer, so this slide is no where near my longest. But in the first couple days of 2017, it became my 'deepest' slide backwards. Prior to this my 'deepest' slide backwards was 34 thousand dollars in 2013, before things turned around.

Now a $36,000 downturn is different to different players depending on your level of play. For a mid-level, green to mid black player like myself, we are talking about 90, 'average max bets'. At one time this would have been devastating but I now have the bankroll to easily withstand this kind of downturn, so it's just a little bit of an annoyance. A little frustration. And a little reminder of "the rollercoaster that is blackjack card counting"!

 

[Taff]

Awesome posts. Keep em coming.

 

[Spyros Acebos]

In my initial post in this thread, I shared a bit of my younger brother's rollercoaster ride in 2016, his second year of full time card counting blackjack play. In keeping with the theme of this thread, "the rollercoaster that is blackjack card counting", I want to share a bit of my 2016, especially the closing months.

I entered 2016, my 13th year of supporting myself from card counting and a little supplemental AP play, $130k short of a million dollars earned in my career. From 2012 thru 2015, I had averaged $104,000 a year in total AP earnings, That is my blackjack card counting plus half of a bit of machine play supplemental stuff that my partner and I do. So for me to hit that little milestone of a million dollars earned, in 2016, I would need to come in significantly above expectation. But I had hit that $130k amount needed, twice before in my career, in 2012 and 2013, so it was not out of the question.

So the first half of 2016 was pretty unremarkable for me. My blackjack numbers were mildly below expectation. Then in July and August, I caught fire, racking in some pretty big wins, I neared that magical, yet meaningless milestone, that for some reason, I was spending too much time obsessing about. The first week in October it happened. After I small winning day my career earnings were $1100 above the million dollar mark! Que the celebration!

That day in early October was my last ATH (all time high). I was above the 1M mark for a total of about 20 hours. It was like the BJ gods and/or Lady Variance allowed me to touch that mark and then began slapping me around. For the final 3 months of 2016, I went backwards. No major 5 figure losing days which often occur during one of my downturns, just constant small losses, always retreating from that ATH. I ended the year 34 grand off that ATH. And the first few days of 2017, I have continued that slide and am now 36,000+ off that ATH.

Now I have had 3 different backwards slides that lasted 5 months or longer, so this slide is no where near my longest. But in the first couple days of 2017, it became my 'deepest' slide backwards. Prior to this my 'deepest' slide backwards was 34 thousand dollars in 2013, before things turned around.

Now a $36,000 downturn is different to different players depending on your level of play. For a mid-level, green to mid black player like myself, we are talking about 90, 'average max bets'. At one time this would have been devastating but I now have the bankroll to easily withstand this kind of downturn, so it's just a little bit of an annoyance. A little frustration. And a little reminder of "the rollercoaster that is blackjack card counting"!

KewlJ,

I have read many players refer to themselves betting at light, mid-level, and heavy green and/or black.

Would you kindly clarify what that means, or at least what you meant by using those teems?

 

[KewlJ]

KewlJ,

I have read many players refer to themselves betting at light, mid-level, and heavy green and/or black.

Would you kindly clarify what that means, or at least what you meant by using those teems?

I consider red chip play spreading $5 or $10 anywhere up to $100 as "red chip" or low limit play, even if the top bet is in green.

I consider someone who plays the $25 or $50 tables (or even the lower tables but plays a minimum bet of $25) and spreads to black, as mid level play.

And anyone who spreads to a top bet of greater than $1000, I think as higher limit.

I am in that middle, minimum wager $25 or $50 spreading to black range.

But just saying spreading green to black, could mean spreading $25 to $200, or it could mean spreading $50 to $800, so I usually take it a step further to clarify by saying spreading green to mid black. This infers a top wager of $400/$500. At many stores I try to stay just below the $500 threshold which often comes with an extra level of "interest".

I try to make what I am talking about as clear as possible without posting my exact spread, but I see other players use terms like "chunky green", which seems even more vague to me. To me chunky green could be anywhere from 5 or 6 green ($150) to $500/$600, but playing all green.

 

[Spyros Acebos]

Thank you for clarifying as much as you feel comfortable with. I always wonder about the context of words people choose to use, when there is not a common usage/understanding.

I suspect that you must face a hard time playing "green to mid black" at several casinos in the Greater LV area (The sweaty spaniard obviously immediately comes to mind). But by and large, do you find it easy to spread at that level on 3:2, non-CSM blackjack tables around the strip, and off-strip?

 

[21forme]

KJ - keep up the good work! It's also funny what happens after hitting a milestone. For me, I tend to keep cash in 10K bundles, and after a buffer of 4K above that, I take the 10K in earnings to the bank. More often than not, I hit some negative variance, then have to withdraw some money. It's like clockwork

 

[KewlJ]

KJ - keep up the good work! It's also funny what happens after hitting a milestone. For me, I tend to keep cash in 10K bundles, and after a buffer of 4K above that, I take the 10K in earnings to the bank. More often than not, I hit some negative variance, then have to withdraw some money. It's like clockwork

That sounds like Lady V. She has a wicked sense of humor and sense of timing.

 

[xengrifter]

That sounds like Lady V. She has a wicked sense of humor and sense of timing.

It seems entirely logical that since we are only at ATH 1-2% of the time...
... that whenever ATH is reached we should lower our bet size, no?

 

[KewlJ]

It seems entirely logical that since we are only at ATH 1-2% of the time...
... that whenever ATH is reached we should lower our bet size, no?

That's faulty logic though.

Early in my career, I did something along those lines. If I remember correctly, I got out of the gate pretty fast one year, and was 4 or 5 times expectation after a month or two. I figured there had to be some 'losing' coming down the road, so I cut my bet back thinking this would reduce the losing period that was "due". That losing period (or correction) never came. What happened was I continued to win, just not at that rate that I was during the fast start. All I managed to do was cut my win in half from the point that I reduced spread ramp.

I guess that was my way of proving to myself that statement that you are never "due" for anything. The cards don't know that you have been winning and are "due" to lose or losing and are "due" to win. Just like a roulette wheel doesn't know that 7 straight reds have come out.

As for the ATH at 1-2% of the time, while this is true, they often are grouped together. I mean if I am at an ATH today and I win tomorrow, I will be at another ATH, and again maybe the next day. You likely will hit several in short order. But then once you falls back significantly, then you aren't going to see another ATH in the immediate future. It might be weeks or months.