zengrifter
Banned
His play was screwed from the start because he was GROSSLY over-betting.
Do you know what over-betting is? zg
The second to last farewell
- Thread starter Dopple
- Start date
Do you know what over-betting is? zg
Long run break even with proportional over-betting.
Short run disaster likelihood greatly increased.
farmdoggy
Well-Known Member
Well, sux you have to take a break. I've been in the position where I knowingly took an almost 50% RoR just to try and play at a certain table. I got burned too! (go figure). ZG is right though... Nothing really happened. If your goal is to make 15-30 bucks an hour than you can drop your max bets to 2x50. Doing so might mean your wounds don't have to heal as long.
Good luck to ya
Good luck to ya
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
dang, if that's the case i guess i don't have a bankroll. lose money? heck no man.
but yeah unfortunately risk is a very real part of the equation involving a reward an advantage can afford.
gimme a relatively large reward with respect to a relatively minute risk of a relatively minute chunk of my bankroll and lemme be able to constantly monitor the situation and be able to make decisions regarding the bottom line, that's what i'm talkin bout.
zengrifter
Banned
A relenishable BR should be played at 1/3 Kelly (or less).
You were just being a bit of a rookie compulsive overbetting gambler.
No get back to work with the spread I suggested above. zg
kewljason
Well-Known Member
NO! Stop it PS. (btw that's your new name now, PS...or...Pot-stirrer) :laugh:
But seriously. It's ok to point out things that he did wrong during his venture, in the hopes that he and others may learn from those mistakes for the future, but don't encourage someone who has made the decision that he needs to take a break, to get back in there. Especially someone who shared his reasoning, spending more time and money on/with his daughter, as dopple did. Shame on you, PS!
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
i guess that's correct Sharky, one can choose to only put ones big toe in, no need to put one's self into danger of drowning.:laugh:
that said i think we agree it is prudent to have a handle on risk from head to toe. ie. consider all our assets and liabilities, best we can.
thing is how many of us use the total value of our assets minus liabilities as the numerical value of our bankroll and then determine some ROR?
who ever put together the kelly faq seems to think we should.
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm (Archive copy)
as Q7 & Q8 seems to indicate........ oh well, just me maybe, that just seems silly, but then i'm no pro, but a pro who is wholly dependent upon blackjack for an income well perhaps it would be prudent of him to go to such depths of risk assessment. and then ruin really does mean ruin, should it happen.
to me that's the beauty of being a supplemental sort of income player when it comes to bankroll and risk. just choose some number and that's your bankroll. heck six years ago i chose $300 for a bankroll, lose that and i was gonna be done.:laugh: six years later and after one hell of a lotta luck and learning stuff from the folks on this site, trust me it a'int to likely i'll ever lose that bankroll.
whatever, the bankroll is always changing, hopefully increasing.
thing is just apply the math to that number when ever you darn well choose to and play and bet as it is incumbent upon you to achieve whatever ROR it is that you desire.
NO! Stop it PS. (btw that's your new name now, PS...or...Pot-stirrer) :laugh:
But seriously. It's ok to point out things that he did wrong during his venture, in the hopes that he and others may learn from those mistakes for the future, but don't encourage someone who has made the decision that he needs to take a break, to get back in there. Especially someone who shared his reasoning, spending more time and money on/with his daughter, as dopple did. Shame on you, PS!
Zg or I guess PS as we'll call him now, loves nothing better than doing that. Just ask the govt. :laugh:
zengrifter
Banned
First we tell him its NOT okay to play and we get heat...NO! Stop it PS. (btw that's your new name now, PS...or...Pot-stirrer) :laugh:
But seriously. It's ok to point out things that he did wrong during his venture, in the hopes that he and others may learn from those mistakes for the future, but don't encourage someone who has made the decision that he needs to take a break, to get back in there. Especially someone who shared his reasoning, spending more time and money on/with his daughter, as dopple did. Shame on you, PS!
... then we tel him it IS okay to play and we get heat.
Dopple, you get back on that horse right now! z:laugh:g
zengrifter
Banned
Shame on him - several posters told him he was gambling excessively with overbets, he didn't listen, and now he just wants to quit. zgNO! Stop it PS. ... someone who shared his reasoning, spending more time and money on/with his daughter, as dopple did. Shame on you, PS!
zengrifter
Banned
That's a little too personal, mon ami. zg
kewljason
Well-Known Member
This thread isn't turning personal. I am just playing with and appreciate ZG. But....sometimes he does like to pull out his big spoon and stir things up.
Sorry, you're right. I didn't mean it in a bad way though.
This happens to be excellent advice. Can someone please explain to me how these words could get twisted into "pot-stirring"?
EVERYONE goes through this. I'll give it about one to two weeks; the OP will clear his head up and WILL get back to work. And unless he CAREFULLY heeds ZG's advice, his problems will keep repeating themselves.
When a baseball player is swinging too hard, he goes into a slump. When a card counter is swinging too hard, it's even WORSE.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
This happens to be excellent advice. Can someone please explain to me how these words could get twisted into "pot-stirring"?
EVERYONE goes through this. I'll give it about one to two weeks; the OP will clear his head up and WILL get back to work. And unless he CAREFULLY heeds ZG's advice, his problems will keep repeating themselves.
When a baseball player is swinging too hard, he goes into a slump. When a card counter is swinging too hard, it's even WORSE.
yes. someone can explain it.
The 'pot-stirring' analogy directed at Zg (in fun) was really not based on anything from this thread. I came up with that analogy based on his posts in another thread, which has since been cleaned and changed and one of the participants "vacationed" lol Zg has a history of 'pot-stirring'. He likes to keep things jumping. Sometimes good. sometimes bad. Usually entertaining. As for his advise, I agree that it is good advise that the some can learn from. Perhaps even the OP when he is ready.
I object to the 'encouraging someone to get back out there' who has clearly expressed that he needs to take a break and direct his efforts, time and money elsewhere, at least for the time being. Quote from his original post--
Now that I cannot produce anything for my 5 year old girls future I will instead treasure this precious time we have together in nature and puzzles, words and song.
Hey Jason I like you but I don't need to be protected from ZG. You make it sound like he is trying to get me hooked on dope.
I will be back at a lower level and win in the long run.
It is totally possible to suffer a downturn such as mine overbetting and still have a winning game.
My life is in control and I dont let it bug me too much because I put the playing money in a different place in my head apart from the money I work for.
The playing money will move up and down but it is a different department.
I will surely be due to win alot when I go back. They owe me.
I will be back at a lower level and win in the long run.
It is totally possible to suffer a downturn such as mine overbetting and still have a winning game.
My life is in control and I dont let it bug me too much because I put the playing money in a different place in my head apart from the money I work for.
The playing money will move up and down but it is a different department.
I will surely be due to win alot when I go back. They owe me.