The Victor Insurance Parameter
- Thread starter Deathclutch
- Start date
Victor Insurance Parameter: why does it work? And other side counts?
I'm new to this old thread, and found it fascinating. I read the VIP articles on Snyder's site, and read through this thread at least 2 times. This quote above was the 2nd post in this long thread, but nobody has really answered it. How the heck does it work? Unseen aces have nothing to do with whether the hole card is a 10 for the insurance bet. So I've been thinking about it.
It seems like the Ace side count is just functioning as a proxy for estimating the number of remaining decks, without looking at the remaining decks. In a six deck shoe, if you are at 20 Aces remaining, you should have about 5 decks left. Is that what the VIP boils down to?
I could understand how for insurance betting, the two methods would corrolate, meaning that if you figure out your insurance bet using the remaining decks or use remaining Aces, they should both corrolate, but it doesn't make sense that the remaining Aces would be more accurate. To me, it would seem like the remaining decks is the bottom line, or what you are trying to directly get at, and it would seem to me that remaining Aces would only be a fuzzy approximation of remaining decks.
Another thought on the VIP that no one has brought up: Would the VIP work with any other side count that is not overlapping the main count? For example, Hi Opt 1, you count 3, 4, 5, 6 vs 10's. I've read that some people like to side count 7's. Since unseen 7's have as much to do with insurance as unseen Aces (meaning that they both have nothing to do with it), if you were (just suppose) side counting 7's instead of Aces, wouldn't the VIP work just the same? Substitute remaining 7's instead of remaining Aces to compute the VIP?
I'm new to this old thread, and found it fascinating. I read the VIP articles on Snyder's site, and read through this thread at least 2 times. This quote above was the 2nd post in this long thread, but nobody has really answered it. How the heck does it work? Unseen aces have nothing to do with whether the hole card is a 10 for the insurance bet. So I've been thinking about it.
It seems like the Ace side count is just functioning as a proxy for estimating the number of remaining decks, without looking at the remaining decks. In a six deck shoe, if you are at 20 Aces remaining, you should have about 5 decks left. Is that what the VIP boils down to?
I could understand how for insurance betting, the two methods would corrolate, meaning that if you figure out your insurance bet using the remaining decks or use remaining Aces, they should both corrolate, but it doesn't make sense that the remaining Aces would be more accurate. To me, it would seem like the remaining decks is the bottom line, or what you are trying to directly get at, and it would seem to me that remaining Aces would only be a fuzzy approximation of remaining decks.
Another thought on the VIP that no one has brought up: Would the VIP work with any other side count that is not overlapping the main count? For example, Hi Opt 1, you count 3, 4, 5, 6 vs 10's. I've read that some people like to side count 7's. Since unseen 7's have as much to do with insurance as unseen Aces (meaning that they both have nothing to do with it), if you were (just suppose) side counting 7's instead of Aces, wouldn't the VIP work just the same? Substitute remaining 7's instead of remaining Aces to compute the VIP?
There is nothing special about aces. The VIP technique would work for any side counted card not in the main count. The running count is a function of tens to other counted cards. The accuracy of your index use depends on the accuracy of your estimate of the number of decks remaining. By dividing the RC by the number of any non ten value side counted card not in the main count yet to be played and comparing to a threshold for that count there is no estimation required only an accurate RC and side count. Ace neutral counts using the ace side count give an accurate decision if your counts are accurate.
The side count is not used as a substitute for deck estimate but as a gage of the balance of an uncounted card. If you eliminate all of any non ten value card from the shoe insurance is an even bet (index would be 0). The fewer of an uncounted card left in the shoe the smaller the index needs to be the more the higher the index needs to be. Remember your index is based on an assumption of balance among the uncounted cards. If they are out of balance your index is not accurate. The VIP effectively adds an uncounted card to the decision process while removing the need to have a deck estimate add in more possibility for error. Your decision is based on more information with less error.
The side count is not used as a substitute for deck estimate but as a gage of the balance of an uncounted card. If you eliminate all of any non ten value card from the shoe insurance is an even bet (index would be 0). The fewer of an uncounted card left in the shoe the smaller the index needs to be the more the higher the index needs to be. Remember your index is based on an assumption of balance among the uncounted cards. If they are out of balance your index is not accurate. The VIP effectively adds an uncounted card to the decision process while removing the need to have a deck estimate add in more possibility for error. Your decision is based on more information with less error.
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Ok, maybe this is starting to make logical sense. And I won't want to use the VIP unless it somehow makes sense. While I think you could say that an Ace side count could be a proxy for remaining decks, maybe what would be more accurate is to say is that the side count is a proxy for the non-counted cards. For Hi Opt 1, the Ace side count is being used in VIP as an estimation of the non-counted cards A, 2, 7, 8, and 9. So the VIP calculation takes into account (3,4,5,6 vs 10's) vs. Aces, where the Aces are a proxy for A,2,7,8,9.
Has anyone been able to sim this? And is anyone actively using the VIP? How's it working for you?
Has anyone been able to sim this? And is anyone actively using the VIP? How's it working for you?
I will chime in (like I always do, sorry QFIT) and say that while the gain isn't there, it's much simpler, for me at least, than true counting and more accurate . In a DD game there are 7 Aces and 7 RC's and for Hi opt II they are almost identical. There is no deck estimation whatsoever and if you're already side counting aces I don't see why someone wouldn't use it.
For anything more than 2 decks true counting is easier.
Here's something I did when I first started using it. I counted a deck until I got to and ace. I used both VIP and true count to see how they compared. Then I actually counted the 10's vs. Non 10's to make sure it was accurate, and it was.
For anything more than 2 decks true counting is easier.
Here's something I did when I first started using it. I counted a deck until I got to and ace. I used both VIP and true count to see how they compared. Then I actually counted the 10's vs. Non 10's to make sure it was accurate, and it was.