This has been happening a lot lately

Z

zooner

Member
#1
#1
Hi everyone,

I'm wondering if there's something I should be looking out for during positive counts that would tell me to run. I was playing yesterday and was holding my own for a while. The next shoe (4 decks 80%pen, 3 other players at table), the count goes positive after about 3/4 of a deck out - and I quickly jump onto 2 squares, betting 70% on each of what I would bet playing heads-up. The counts stays above +2 for most of the rest of the shoe. Guess what happened? I dropped $800 in that one shoe, I think I pushed one max bet-lost the rest. I had a lot of 18's and 19's but the dealer kept pulling 20's and 4 or 5 card 21's. I just kept thinking that I have to trust the math, bet appropriately, don't panic, the dealer cannot keep this up. Well, he did, and I was done for the day. What I'm wondering is if there is another 'rule' I can apply when this sort of thing starts to happen. I'm really trying to play smart and build my bankroll gradually but when this happens, it makes me doubt what I'm doing.

I anticipate the answer to be that this is just normal variance but maybe there's some 'voodoo' I can start using. Thanks all.
 
B

BradRod

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Re: This has been happening ..........

What you are experiencing is a shoe where your count is valid and should be reliable but all the 10's are clustered behind the cut card.

I think that there is no counting system or voodoo that can protect you from this type of situation. I am not skilled at shuffle tracking but if you could somehow see where that cluster of high cards winds up after the next shuffle or two you could re4ally clean up. I have experienced this playing behind a shuffle tracker.

The answer is you are playing for the long run. If you encounter this type of situation and your betting stake starts to dwindle you should play more conservatively until you know you are in the pocket of high cards. I know it does seem to go against the math but it is a matter of self preservation and staying in the game.
 
S

stainless steel rat

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
also

It doesn't necessarily mean all the 10's are behind the cut card. With a + count, there is no law that says either you or the dealer gets more of those high cards just because the count is up. I've played many a game where the count was sky-high, yet I got stiffs and the dealer got 20/21's over and over. Even when the count is way +, there is the normal distribution of cards to deal with, you get some, the dealer gets some, and that is what makes variance or flux happen...
 
Z

zooner

Member
#4
#4
What I thought

Thanks, guys. It's just a p*** off, that's all. In retrospect, I am actually proud of the way I played yesterday as I didn't go 'chasing' my losses with big bets in the next shoe when it wasn't called for. And today I don't feel too too bad so I guess I'm learning and will take something away from this. I'll be back at it next week looking for those nice high counts. BTW, the ploppies at the table were doing some weird things, like only hitting to 14 or 15 against dealer's 7,8,9,10. I wonder what would have happened had they played proper basic strategy? The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5, taking an ace on the first 6 (then standing), and a 4 on the second (not doubling, but catching an ace.) Guess what the dealer pulled? A 6-card 21 in a +4 count. I had a good chuckle over that round.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#5
#5
It happens to all of us

This is the reason why a guy playing a $10 game with a $10000 bankroll has around a 13% chance of losing it all. Variance. It is by far the most difficult thing to overcome in counting.

You're playing a 4D game, which is usually dealt in small markets and is susceptible to advanced techniques like ace sequencing and shuffle tracking. You may want to consider adding a little bit of tracking to your game to help isolate where those aces and 10's are.

The simplest form of tracking is a slug track. When you get the cut card, you will know one place in the shoe to put it when the count at the end of the last shoe was positive, and another place to put it when it was negative. That's it. Nothing else. It gives you only a small fraction of the power of all-out shuffle tracking but it's a good start.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#7
#7
A couple of ways

If you want to do a shuffle track, here's the most straightforward way. For a 4D game, go out and get yourself 3 decks of cards with one color back and a fourth with another color back. Pretend the odd colored deck is the slug. The next thing you have to do is recreate the house shuffle exactly. Try to compensate for any dealer-to-dealer variation, and you might also want to take note of ways in which the dealer tends to blow the shuffle. When you've recreated the shuffle, look where the odd colored cards are concentrated. Do some figuring and figure out where you would have to cut the shoe to put the maximum number of slug cards behind the cut card on the next shoe, and then the minimum number. Those are the only two points you have to remember. You can also let the odd colored deck represent the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd decks and see where they end up. This is a slightly tougher type of segment tracking because you have to remember what the count was at the beginning and end of some other deck to make it work, but it works the exact same way and some deck other than the slug might have a more predictable distribution for the next shoe, especially if the house uses a plug to return the slug to the discards. For complete shuffle tracking you'll need the counts of each deck and an equation that correlates the count of each deck in one shoe to each deck in the next. I'd recommend the Qfit CVShuffle software if you want to do anything more than the simplest shuffle tracking.
 
Z

zooner

Member
#8
#8
Thank you

Awesome idea. Thank you. I'll start watching the shuffles very carefully next week so I can recreate at home. Thanks for the idea.
 
E

Easy Money

Member
#10
#10
Ploppy plays have no long-term adverse effect

BTW, the ploppies at the table were doing some weird things, like only hitting to 14 or 15 against dealer's 7,8,9,10. I wonder what would have happened had they played proper basic strategy? The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5, taking an ace on the first 6 (then standing), and a 4 on the second (not doubling, but catching an ace.) Guess what the dealer pulled? A 6-card 21 in a +4 count.

Just know that in the long run those moves they make whether good, bad or otherwise, will help you just as much as hurt you. The only bad effect they really have on your game, is they eat cards during positive counts and make for less hands per hour on your betting circle.

On shoe games, I personally like having one other player on the table. I use them as card-eaters when I break away from negative counts.
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
The play was correct

>The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5,

This is basic strategy, and completely correct play. If you have some mythology or don't know basic strategy, you are going to be a loser at the tables. It is easiest to blame losing on other people through selective memory, but it is your responsibility not theirs. I wrote a book for you.
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
Not a large enough sample

One show or one day is not a large enough sample. Keep playing correctly, that's the only thing you can do. Don't worry about winning or losing. Just play correctly. If you know your play is strong, winning will take care of itself.
 
Z

zooner

Member
#13
#13
Not what I meant

I'm not sure you understood my comment on the bonehead play.

Mayor said: "This is basic strategy, and completely correct play. If you have some mythology or don't know basic strategy, you are going to be a loser at the tables. It is easiest to blame losing on other people through selective memory, but it is your responsibility not theirs. I wrote a book for you."

What I said was: "The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5, taking an ace on the first 6 (then standing), and a 4 on the second (not doubling, but catching an ace.)"

What the player actually did was not correct basic strategy. I know basic strategy and don't hold onto any mythological beliefs when it comes to blackjack. The other thing I know for sure is that anything can and will happen in this game.

I also don't blame others when things go bad. And they don't get credit when things are rocking. I simply pointed it out because I found it interesting, that's all. I do my best to capitalize on mistakes like this by offering to buy the player's split or double-down when appropriate.

But since I came off as such a dummy, maybe I should get the book you wrote for me.
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Ahh, sorry.

This shows what a lack of concentration can do to the thoughtful response. It was funny because I read your posts from the top, and they all seemed very solid, except that one. I should have figured I was misreading something.
 
Z

zooner

Member
#15
#15
No worries

I can understand how that can happen. So, no problem. And thanks for the compliment. I do appreciate all the feedback. This community is awesome and as a result, my playing is better than ever. BTW, had a session today (good result) but am continually amazed at the plays people make - learn BS is what I want to tell them but I keep my mouth shut so as not to look like I know something about the game. And I may just have to order your book.
 
C

Cionnaith

New Member
#16
#16
get the book...

The Blackjack Zone is a fabulous book. In addition to providing excellent discussion of blackjack, he delves substantially into the psychology of the game, which I have found lacking in most other books. As a psychologist, I certainly appreciate the approach and he does an excellent job incorporating scientifically established psychological phenomena into the play of the game. Finally, he incorporates "life lessons" in his discussions, which is a wonderful addition. This book could actually be marketed in the "self help/psychology" section at the bookstore. The suggestions he makes about life have more validity than most of the books in that section. Hell with "I'm Okay; You're Okay" get the Blackjack Zone :) Thanks Mayor.
 
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