I was looking back over some old posts and took an interest in the long losing streaks. Simple thought. Would the chance of falling into one of these pits lessen were they to have happened before to a player? I know it is all new math fresh in every game but would that principle apply to such large timeframes?
Those long losing streaks
- Thread starter Dopple
- Start date
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I don't see where the chance of these losing streaks or period lessens because you have gone through them before. These streaks or periods are part of the game. Learning to deal with them mentally is a must to achieve longterm success. There is a real danger for players that haven't experienced these streaks to "tilt", even mildly. Start raising you wagers before you ordinarily would, maybe while still at a disadvantage. Bet your max bet even though the count has dropped and no longer in max bet range. Things like that.
But once you go through a couple of these streaks or periods and come out the other side close to expectation, most of that goes away. It just becomes the normal cycles of the game.
My younger brother is experiencing some of this for the first time this year. This is his fourth year at current stakes, green to mid black. He did have one other year that he had an extended period of play well below expectation, but it was the best case scenario for such. It was the second half of the year that he ran basically flat after having a first half of year far above expectation. That scenario is a little different because even with the etended losing or "flat" period, you are still above expectation for the whole year.
So, this is his first year he is significantly below expectation. He is about 4 months into a negative swing, which consisted of a pretty big negative dip (backslide) and then just a flat level run, resulting in a year that at the moment is about half expectation. This is just something a player has to get through and the first time is the hardest. And while I don't watch my brother play, so can't swear he has not "tilted", I think he is doing ok. Naturally he thinks it is not as fun as some of the other periods he has experienced, but I don't see any signs of real distress and I have been trying to keep an eye out for.
I didn't really have anyone to lean on my first few times through these periods, but sharing these experiences on these message boards help. You find out others have gone through it and come out the other side, and then when you do likewise, it re-inforces, the math. And that's what it is all about.
But once you go through a couple of these streaks or periods and come out the other side close to expectation, most of that goes away. It just becomes the normal cycles of the game.
My younger brother is experiencing some of this for the first time this year. This is his fourth year at current stakes, green to mid black. He did have one other year that he had an extended period of play well below expectation, but it was the best case scenario for such. It was the second half of the year that he ran basically flat after having a first half of year far above expectation. That scenario is a little different because even with the etended losing or "flat" period, you are still above expectation for the whole year.
So, this is his first year he is significantly below expectation. He is about 4 months into a negative swing, which consisted of a pretty big negative dip (backslide) and then just a flat level run, resulting in a year that at the moment is about half expectation. This is just something a player has to get through and the first time is the hardest. And while I don't watch my brother play, so can't swear he has not "tilted", I think he is doing ok. Naturally he thinks it is not as fun as some of the other periods he has experienced, but I don't see any signs of real distress and I have been trying to keep an eye out for.
I didn't really have anyone to lean on my first few times through these periods, but sharing these experiences on these message boards help. You find out others have gone through it and come out the other side, and then when you do likewise, it re-inforces, the math. And that's what it is all about.
xengrifter
Banned
That is why James Grosjean calls you a dinosaur or a salamander... He said that you salamander guys are always chalking off losing sessions to variance ... Do you recall that? He said that a winning player of his ilk doesn't chalk losses off to variance, instead you are supposed to learn from the losing session, figure out what you did wrong, improve your game so that shit doesn't happen. Right? Remember?KewlJ said:
For a competent counter, there is nothing to learn, and nothing to improve, even when experiencing losses like this.xengrifter said:
He's advocating going "Beyond Counting" which is perfectly fine, but that's something that KJ has decided not to do.
Even competent hole carders, including JG, experience big losses sometimes.
xengrifter
Banned
That's not exactly correct, KJ is fairly well versed in an assortment of plays.johndoe said:
But whereas some APs apparently do not go anywhere near blackjack counting, some continue to use counting as the main workhorse.
xengrifter
Banned
That's what I thought, but then horseshit seems like too strong a word to attribute to such a luminary...DSchles said:
...Ps - I once got a three-day ban at this very forum for calling one of his priceless gems a "wasted gasbag of a post"
Negative Variance, Juicy Counts & Ishniae
By James Grosjean
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/negative-variance-juicy-count-games-and-ishniae-sp/
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xengrifter
Banned
Here is another one ...
Doctor it hurts when I do that -
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/doctor-it-hurts-when-i-do-this/
Doctor it hurts when I do that -
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/doctor-it-hurts-when-i-do-this/
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I am familiar, ZG! The very first quote (back to back 5 figure losing days) is mine. I happen to be a frequent target of King James, well at that time anyway....not so much lately, or maybe I just don't read all his little snipes as much.xengrifter said:
So anyway, that quote was made in early 2013. My year started on a 4 month losing run, which included these back to back 5 figure loss days and by late April, I was 33k in the red. The worse start to a year I have ever had. So somewhere along the line, venting a bit I made the post with that quote (probably on Norm's site or BJ21).
And guess what, 2013 also containing my biggest positive run, even to this day. $115k, in a little over 5 weeks. And in the end, my 2013 results remains the best year I have had playing blackjack in 16 years. So let's see who was right?? Maybe the guy that as the second part of that quote said "I will survive this. It will all work out in the end". AND IT DID! And that is what blackjack card counting is all about....variance and the longrun.
I also make no apologies for a post about going through negative variance. It's a little venting. I happen to think that is one of the benefits of these forums, for a solo type card counter to vent a little when variance is crapping on you. It doesn't mean you aren't in control or don't know what you are doing. These swings are part of blackjack card counting and they are expected, but sometimes it is still nice to vent a bit, with like minded people on the forums that understand what you are going through.
Really, I don't know what your point is for bringing this up, nor James for making his little snide remarks at the time.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I think I should add, that I have tremendous respect for James Grosjean, his mathematical and AP ability. I really do. Like so many others on these forums, I wish I had a tenth of their math abilities.
But I have never understood James' need to put down others. The whole "salamander" thing. What is this need to remind people that you are better than them.
Anyway, If I am a salamander, it is because I choose to be. I {still} enjoy blackjack, card counting and making a living from this most elementary method of advantage play, using tried and tested methods, learned mostly from others in this community.....with my own little twists on some things.
I have over the years employed some other AP plays. Hole-carding, video poker play, several blackjack side bets, 6 months of successful Big wheel or big 6 wheel (or whatever it is called) play. The knowledge for this last one came directly from Grosjean's book. I think I may be directly responsible for TI replacing their wheels with the electronic version.
So it is not like I am incapable of learning other things, or "progressing" as James says. I choose not to. I like what I do.
But I have never understood James' need to put down others. The whole "salamander" thing.
What is this need to remind people that you are better than them. Anyway, If I am a salamander, it is because I choose to be. I {still} enjoy blackjack, card counting and making a living from this most elementary method of advantage play, using tried and tested methods, learned mostly from others in this community.....with my own little twists on some things.
I have over the years employed some other AP plays. Hole-carding, video poker play, several blackjack side bets, 6 months of successful Big wheel or big 6 wheel (or whatever it is called) play. The knowledge for this last one came directly from Grosjean's book. I think I may be directly responsible for TI replacing their wheels with the electronic version.
So it is not like I am incapable of learning other things, or "progressing" as James says. I choose not to. I like what I do.
xengrifter
Banned
Well, you are not a tadpole anymore!KewlJ said:
xengrifter
Banned
Did we jump tracks from a different thread suddenly
xengrifter
Banned
Don't take my musings out of context...BoSox said:
... The context was KJ and part of the Grosjean meanderings linked above were intended swipes at KJ and card counters in general who publicly bemoan a large negative variance while finding comfort in existential surrender to the underlying math.
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