kewljason
Well-Known Member
Looking over my records of the last 7 years I have a few thoughts I wanted to share regarding what I call volatility. For the first 5 and a half years, the majority of my play took place in AC, playing mediocre (at best) 8 deck games with about 2 cut off and later 6 deck games with about 1.5 cut off. Occasionally you could find better if you looked hard, but not much better. I am not a 'chart guy' but if I was to make a chart, it would show a steady incline. Slight, to be sure, with a small 'win rate', but steady for the most part with minimal peaks and valleys.
16 months ago, I relocated to Vegas, where I have had access to some slightly better games. I play a lot of 6 deck games with a deck and a half down to 1 deck cut off and occasionally some decent double deck games. I realize the estimated 120,000 hands during this 16 month period is a small sample. Probably too small to draw any conclusions from, but I find myself doing so anyhow...:laugh: While my 'win rate' has improved slightly, the thing that really caught my eye was the volatility. Huge swings, both up and down, that I was not accustomed too. I assume these swings are the results of more frequent high counts, resulting in max bets. While this is good for your long-term win rate, it apparently is bad for volatility.
While I am starting to get used to these incidents, it is trying and you better be substantially bankrolled.
I can't help but think, If I encountered such swings early on in my career, while playing small stakes and under-funded, I wouldn't be here doing this now. So while those of us that tackled or still tackle the AC games, often talk about how bad they are, and no doubt, they are, maybe it isn't the worst place for a player with limited bankroll. That was my experience anyway.
16 months ago, I relocated to Vegas, where I have had access to some slightly better games. I play a lot of 6 deck games with a deck and a half down to 1 deck cut off and occasionally some decent double deck games. I realize the estimated 120,000 hands during this 16 month period is a small sample. Probably too small to draw any conclusions from, but I find myself doing so anyhow...:laugh: While my 'win rate' has improved slightly, the thing that really caught my eye was the volatility. Huge swings, both up and down, that I was not accustomed too. I assume these swings are the results of more frequent high counts, resulting in max bets. While this is good for your long-term win rate, it apparently is bad for volatility.
While I am starting to get used to these incidents, it is trying and you better be substantially bankrolled. I can't help but think, If I encountered such swings early on in my career, while playing small stakes and under-funded, I wouldn't be here doing this now. So while those of us that tackled or still tackle the AC games, often talk about how bad they are, and no doubt, they are, maybe it isn't the worst place for a player with limited bankroll. That was my experience anyway.
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