Tired of losing, Help please
- Thread starter dj56
- Start date
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
As a basic strategy player you are expected to lose over the long run so don't be surprised. Like Sabre said stick to the table minimum and look for a table with the best rules. If you want to be a winner over the long run learn to count.
Katweezel
Well-Known Member
Negative expectation
Do you know what a negative expectation game means? Do you realize Blackjack is a game where you can expect to win only about 43% of your hands, lose about 49% and tie the rest? Can you see from those (long-term) figures that you are destined to lose, like probably around 98% of the people playing Blackjack in any casino today? Perfect basic strategy just means you will still lose, but slower. I had a disease once, called: DELUSION. I believed I could win at Blackjack, playing perfect basic stragegy, because I did win big maybe one time in every 20. It cost me a heap of money before I finally woke up to my own idiocy. My advice: Stop playing blackjack now. Look on this site for the best books to read. Read posts under the threads under Card Counting. How bad do you want whatever you want? If you want it bad enough, you will do whatever it takes to achieve it. It takes work. Do you have what it takes? Find out. :cat:
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
how much have you lost?
what are the rules, number of decks, penetration of the games you've been playing?
Wookets
Well-Known Member
Also make sure you're playing games with low house edge. Generally, you want 4 or less decks, a 3-2 payout for blackjack, and S17 games. Try to find games with the best rules and you will lose at a much slower rate if you play solely basic strategy. A house edge calculator is located here for your reference: http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html
Learning BS perfectly for the game you play was your first correct decision, but BS in nearly all games today has a negative expected valuation. (the house has the edge)
Read up on the different counting strategies, pick one, and than know it as well as you say you know BS. Practice it for a few months, continue reading, practice some more and maybe then you will be ready to take on the enemy..
You started correctly, stay on that path.
BJC
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ihate17
Well-Known Member
Learning to count is not learning to win, it is just one step in learning to win
DJ
You have already taken the first step in learning to win at blackjack if you have really completely mastered basic strategy.
Counting and hi-lo will work, is the common next step but only a step.
What I mean here is just learning to count is not enough. You need to purchase some good blackjack books. Learn about risk or ruin, bet sizing, indexes, and things like how to act in the casino. You also need to learn as much about your opponent as you can (the casino) and all casinos do things differently.
Then the hardest thing and I believe the reason most cardcounters give up as losers, is that while you must appear to be a hunch taking gambler you are playing as a cold calculating machine. Human emotions, natural feelings that come about when playing blackjack can kill your bankroll.
You get beat badly a few times in high counts and now you do not spread enough----result, your missed opportunities may leave you as a lifetime loser.
You get beat badly a few times in a high count and now the count has gone down but you put up some huge bets to get your money back----resut, your steaming will eventually completely wipe out your bankroll.
It is a long tough road but it can be a profitable hobby.
ihate17
DJ
You have already taken the first step in learning to win at blackjack if you have really completely mastered basic strategy.
Counting and hi-lo will work, is the common next step but only a step.
What I mean here is just learning to count is not enough. You need to purchase some good blackjack books. Learn about risk or ruin, bet sizing, indexes, and things like how to act in the casino. You also need to learn as much about your opponent as you can (the casino) and all casinos do things differently.
Then the hardest thing and I believe the reason most cardcounters give up as losers, is that while you must appear to be a hunch taking gambler you are playing as a cold calculating machine. Human emotions, natural feelings that come about when playing blackjack can kill your bankroll.
You get beat badly a few times in high counts and now you do not spread enough----result, your missed opportunities may leave you as a lifetime loser.
You get beat badly a few times in a high count and now the count has gone down but you put up some huge bets to get your money back----resut, your steaming will eventually completely wipe out your bankroll.
It is a long tough road but it can be a profitable hobby.
ihate17
Variance is pretty high in blackjack. Just betting $10 per hand on average, depending on the rules you can be up $200 or down $220. Losing $600 in 3 hours is not uncommon. Double that if you're playing $20 bets.
per hour. In the long run you will always be down if you only play basic strategy.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
ok and is it a game where you can double on any two first cards and that you can double after splitting? is late surrender allowed?
also don't mean to be nosey, but it would, might could help if we knew how much you've lost in how many hours of play. also have you just been flat betting, never raising your bets? i think you said you've played both $10 & $15 min tables, are there any $5 min tables? you'd be much better off on a $5 min table if you continue to play with just using basic strategy. kudos for using basic strategy by the way.
reason for asking all these questions, is if you do continue to play with just basic strategy you may find it interesting to know what short term fluctuations are likely to occur and what the chances of you winning some or all of your money back might be in the relative short term assuming you just happen to get some degree of luck come your way.
long term like everyone's been saying, just using basic strategy is a losing proposition. if you learn to count cards your prospects of not losing anymore money will be much better, you could end up being nearly a one percent favorite to win, sort of thing.
creeping panther
Banned
Dj
The dealer hitting soft 17 in a 6d game is a outrage. The only way I would play such a game is if there were extenuating circumstances.
CP
The dealer hitting soft 17 in a 6d game is a outrage. The only way I would play such a game is if there were extenuating circumstances.
CP
callipygian
Well-Known Member
This.
Plus, note that counting cards will INCREASE your variance, not lower it. It's not unusual for $10-$40 bettors to be up or down $1,000 whether they're long term winners or long term losers.
I usually take 60 to the casino each time i go im thinking of taking more i usually last about an hr or so on that and 2 times ive broke even and 4 times lost it all. yea i think hitting a soft 17 for the dealer is bs. but its the only casino even within driving distance. what are some counting strategies that work for some of you guys?
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
You take 60 ? Sixty what ? Dollars ?
Even if you could make $1 bets $60 would be inadequate.
You said: " .. hitting a soft 17 for the dealer is bs"
The difference in the House Edge with and without that rule is dramatic.
The House Edge is worsened by .2%
Yes, two tenths of one percent. Two cents on the dollar. Awful !
Look at it this way: If the House Edge is .4% against you, then this rule
increases the House's advantage against you by 50% !
You said: " ... the only casino even within driving distance."
The oldest joke in the book is:
"Sure the game is crooked - but its the only game in town."
The second oldest joke, probably applies to you.
"I hope that I break even. I need the money."
Learn to card count, study, practice. A LOT.
It typically takes anywhere from 4 months to a year to gain enough mastery of the game to make it sensible to risk a few bucks.
Save your money. Go to where the game is worthwhile a 4 times a year.
Your basic question is how do we attack such games ?
The answer is that the worse the game is the stronger your tactics must be in order to succeed.
In an awful game amateurs go from having slim chances to having none.
If you simply tell us where it is you play we may be better equipped o offer some useful advice.
Even if you could make $1 bets $60 would be inadequate.
You said: " .. hitting a soft 17 for the dealer is bs"
The difference in the House Edge with and without that rule is dramatic.
The House Edge is worsened by .2%
Yes, two tenths of one percent. Two cents on the dollar. Awful !
Look at it this way: If the House Edge is .4% against you, then this rule
increases the House's advantage against you by 50% !
You said: " ... the only casino even within driving distance."
The oldest joke in the book is:
"Sure the game is crooked - but its the only game in town."
The second oldest joke, probably applies to you.
"I hope that I break even. I need the money."
Learn to card count, study, practice. A LOT.
It typically takes anywhere from 4 months to a year to gain enough mastery of the game to make it sensible to risk a few bucks.
Save your money. Go to where the game is worthwhile a 4 times a year.
Your basic question is how do we attack such games ?
The answer is that the worse the game is the stronger your tactics must be in order to succeed.
In an awful game amateurs go from having slim chances to having none.
If you simply tell us where it is you play we may be better equipped o offer some useful advice.
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
Amazingly, the casino you mention is not listed in C.B.J.N.
Bad games require a powerful count and a BIG bankroll.
You will need a far more efficient and powerful Card Counting System
than a KISS Count to attack this game.
In BJ "One Size Does NOT Fit All"
i suggest abandoning BJ for now - as you do not yet have the money to play
with any realistic chance to consistently win.
When you graduate you may land a well-paying job AND have the time to study the game.
To do otherwise is virtual financial suicide.
Bad games require a powerful count and a BIG bankroll.
You will need a far more efficient and powerful Card Counting System
than a KISS Count to attack this game.
In BJ "One Size Does NOT Fit All"
i suggest abandoning BJ for now - as you do not yet have the money to play
with any realistic chance to consistently win.
When you graduate you may land a well-paying job AND have the time to study the game.
To do otherwise is virtual financial suicide.