To be or not to be... randomly speaking

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by aslan, Oct 29, 2011.

  1. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    We talk about random shuffles, how many passes it takes, and about VP machines based on random shuffles, and on the possibility fre different things occurring in a random sample, etc., yet is there even such a thing as randomness in the real world? Can randomness be proven to even exist? And if there is no randomness in the universe, does that lead to a deterministic outlook, the possibility that the "fix" is in (on a cosmic scale)? :laugh: If there is no randomness, can you be sure you really have the chance you think you have? Is there randomness for all practical purposes? How do you know?
  2. sagefr0g

    sagefr0g Well-Known Member

    random ? i dunno, but far as i can tell it might as well be.
  3. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    Unless of course you had the key to unlock the repeating pattern. :grin:
  4. sagefr0g

    sagefr0g Well-Known Member

    yeah, no, lol, hey gotta read those links you provided, interesting stuff, this random thing. i know, errhh at least i think i know, like for instance, rng's in computers and stuff, they can get pretty random, but just not quite there, not completely random, is how i understand it. so does that mean people can't make truly random stuff? i dunno, but well just for the case of a computers rng, errrhh why can't we make a truly random rng? understand that, then maybe we could understand what random is or isn't, i sure don't know, but it's interesting, hopefully someone around here can explain a bit about the nature of randomness.
  5. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    For one thing, no one can see enough of any possibly random rendering to ensure that it does not repeat itself at some point. That is not to say that it is not random, only that it cannot be proven to be so. Also, in many things that appear random at first glance, a pattern appears on a larger scale, at least, that's what I have gleaned from some of the articles. Like you say, for all practical purposes something may be considered purely random. But what about the physics of it? Does everything have a cause in physics, and if caused, doesn't that make everything predictable, if only you could get your hands around the details of causation? I may not be expressing myself well, but don't exactly same causes have exactly same results all other things being equal? What in the universe is not the result of some sort of causation? The Big Bang, for instance, being the original cause for some scientists, or one of an infinite number of "primal" causes. I am beginning to speak randomly, so I'd better shut up before I disprove my own argument. :laugh:
  6. Gamblor

    Gamblor Well-Known Member

    Taleb (the Black Swan guy) has some interesting thoughts on randomness, which I tend to agree with.

    Basically he thinks the real world randomness, namely the financial world, is completely different then the structured randomness of quantum physics (where probabilistic predictions can be made with a remarkable degree of accuracy) and casino games (where all the conditions of the game are known). And that its a huge mistake to model finance like if it was a game.

    Personally I think this tends to indicate the financial markets are easier to exploit then casino games :) I believe he is correct, but having said that, maybe not all casino games have been modeled completely and totally correctly either - in a simple game like roulette or craps, its possible to take into account all conditions and thus can be modeled accurately, but in other games, maybe not so much.
  7. Gamblor

    Gamblor Well-Known Member

    Yes, practically any computer rng is not entirely random. Some of this has to do with the fact that you often need to generate random numbers quickly (so a simple algorithm is required). Now, are some rng random enough that its hard to exploit, in all likelihood yes.

    Here's an example of a once popular rng. Every 3rd random number generated had an exact correlation to to the first two random numbers generated! Something to keep in mind.

    I love this quote:

    'One of us recalls producing a “random” plot with only 11 planes, and being told by his computer center’s programming consultant that he had misused the random number generator: “We guarantee that each number is random individually, but we don’t guarantee that more than one of them is random.” Figure that out.'
    —W. H. Press
  8. mmeyers

    mmeyers Member

    Michael Larson, Game Show Legend

    Frog, I think you make a really good point that random doesn't really mean random. The hard part is trying to figure out the pattern. Do you remember the game show Press Your Luck?

  9. sagefr0g

    sagefr0g Well-Known Member

    well speaking of physics, as i think maybe legend has it, or at least according to some stories i've read, even Mr. Einstein may have had a problem with causation with respect to quantum physics, no? that 'spooky' action at a distance stuff, entanglement stuff, errhh i dunno, seems he had some discomfort viewing stuff through the lens of quantum mechanics, maybe? i think it might of had to do with his sense that causation had to be in the mix somehow.

    and here's something regarding that, errhh well, for me personally, i've been realizing or finding that seemingly paradoxically but i guess it isn't really paradoxical, that the fact that stuff we want to exploit in the casino's is for all practical purposes random, errrhh well that fact can help us exploit that stuff.:rolleyes:

    lol, i sure do remember Larsen & Press Your Luck, can't remember all the details, so i want to review your link, but heck yeah, a classic sort of an advantage play, imho.:eyepatch:
    and, i'm guessing, trying to remember but here, wasn't Larsen exploiting the lack of randomness in something that was supposedly random, sorta thing? lol
    edit: sort of another side of the coin, here where the fact something is supposed to be random but really isn't, lends the situation exploitable.
  10. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    many questions

    Is Aslan and froggie the same person?

    Is non randomness another reason to bet 1/4 to 1/8 kelly?

    If a non random jacks or better game occasionally holds out a 2 or an A from the deal. How many hands until one can realize it? How many hands until it matters in ev?

    If we flip every penny in the world at the same time is that random enough? Are there enough Chinese to do it? Would the world survive?
  11. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

  12. tthree

    tthree Banned

    I eat at random times. My meals are random. Breakfast at 9PM yesterday but had dinner at 10AM. Oops lunch yesterday is being eaten right now today. I just hate predictability. That's why I like blackjack. I count on unpredictability.:eyepatch:
  13. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    You are so predictable. :rolleyes:
  14. zengrifter

    zengrifter Banned

    So "breakfast" and "dinner" are arbritary lables based on what the meal consists of? z:confused:g
  15. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    random is as random is

    Hand shuffled BJ is not random, one can use the info to an advantage or not use the info and still have an advantage.
  16. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    Random for shuffling is considered the number of times cards must riffled to allow for every possible combination of cards to have a chance of occurrence and is considered to be near enough to random at seven passes.

    In conflict with this is the notion that if the cards came out high, low, high, low, high, low, the same to the end, the cards would not be considered random in order.

    Since no one knows what random looks like, I wonder how they decide on these conventions? Are there rules that do not allow RNGs to produce certain results, like ace, ace, ace, ace, ace, ace, ace, ace, deuce, deuce, deuce, deuce, deuce, deuce, deuce, deuce, trey, trey, trey, etc., etc?
  17. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    Some restaurants advertise "breakfast anytime" or "breakfast 24/7."

    Sometimes, I like breakfast foods for dinner. Conversely, sometimes, I like dinner foods for breakfast. There is nothing like bacon, eggs and toast for dinner, or spaghetti, pizza or steak for breakfast. Steak and eggs is a hybrid meal; so is chicken and waffles; so why is the former always on a breakfast menu and the latter on a dinner menu? :rolleyes: Should there be a food police? Maybe the *dm*n*str*t**n can work on this problem while they are busy r*g*l*t*ng the other foods we eat. I want to eat p*l*t*c*lly correctly.
  18. blackriver

    blackriver Well-Known Member

    They don't have lots of breakfast/dinner options on dinner/breakfast menus for the same reason most menus don't have EVERYTHING you want on them except, ironically the cheese cake factory whose name suggests they would have no real "food" options.

    Hows that for random :)
  19. Sonny

    Sonny Well-Known Member

    If certain results were not allowed then it wouldn't be random. :)

  20. sagefr0g

    sagefr0g Well-Known Member

    so what in nature can be considered random

    is there known stuff in nature that is random?

    how about the position of an electron over time? that considered random?

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