Trip Report

S

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Finally got in some playing time totaling 19.5 hours in the last couple trips. For the time invested, my total return was 252 units. Nice to be headed upwards again. :)

Some of the time on one of the trips I used a player card. I find that when I use the card I don't feel the freedom to wong-out and go to another table nearly as often. Therefore, I'm playing more negative EV shoe games when using the card. Without the card, if the shoe dumps to -1.5TC in the first couple hands, I,m gone. I can't realize that kind of freedom if the card is still in the hands of the pit stiff. Even if I get the card back before the count goes south, I feel that they feel more of an obligation to keep an eye on me, such as; when I'm in, when I'm out, where I'm at, what I am doing standing behind the other players just watching, etc, etc.

I don't like being tracked. This is one major reason. I think this is a problem issue for us shoe players and I haven't figured a way to fix it.
 
S

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Never calculated my EV yet

This is an area of the math that I'm not yet sure of. Need some help to calc it.

Using 1 to 22 spread on 6D.
Wonging-in about 75% of the time at +1 or better, about 25% start at new shoe.
Always wong-out at no worse than -1.5.
Two hands almost always at +2 or more.
Played 19.5 hrs.
Won 252 units.

Yes Sammy Boy, the wife watched me win about 60 units in the last half of one shoe. However, the day before she watched me lose about 35 units in one shoe. She's beginning to understand now what it is that I do. She's also becoming more confident that I don't have a compulsive behavior with $. She now knows it's a hell of a lot better and a lot less expensive than me taking up golf. In the beginning, I told her it's either golf or BJ. I have found that having a wife who has been very negative and difficult about BJ has made me have to perform at my best. There is just no room for not being as sharp as possible. For now, if I don't win at least in the medium run, my game is toast.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#5
#5
Good work

If you can get away with Wonging in and out like that on 6D with a 1:22 spread, your EV is probably around 3 BU per hundred hands, assuming you have good rules like LSR and S17. That's a pretty nice setup you have there, can't get much better with shoe play. My guess is that the Wonging in buys you less than any of the other features of your play, and probably arouses more suspicion than any other, so if you need to modify that would be the first feature I eliminate. Just my opinion, the experts here may disagree.

By the way, I bought a new truck with last year's winnings and ever since my SR has been much more amenable to my play! She worries if I haven't been for a while and encourages me to go out, and now when she picks vacation spots for us she aims for places that have casinos so I can play while she relaxes on the beach. Money talks, BS walks. Don't forget that successful counters are among a rarefied elite of people in terms of their understanding of game theory and gaming math so you can't count on anyone understanding anything other than your results, and we all know how long it can take the positive results to come.
 
S

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Thanks for the feedback AM

Forgot to mention that the game didn't have LSR and it is H17 with pen at 75%, has DOA2 and RSA, average two other players. The game isn't perfect so I feel I need to wong a lot.

I'm just guessing that my hourly EV is about 3 units.
 
R

revereman

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
The Spouse

You have already experienced some of the great swings inherent in advantage BJ play. Every wife (and husband, I guess) has a different tolerance to the pain of losing. To pick a number, many spouses will not see a $2k loss as variance but as a lost vacation or piece of jewelry or whatever. Believe me (and I think you know this already), BJ can be A LOT more expensive than golf. My personal experience has been to teach my wife how to play video poker and give her a few hundred dollars to play with (usually from my "chump change," i.e. the $40 from a $240 session win). You're in a good streak now but that can turn on a dime (actually, a lot more). Like I said, everybody is different and you know your wife better than any of us (hopefully). My wife is generally content walking around, reading a book, taking a jacuzzi, and playing some VP.
I make sure I am available for meals and am on time (generally) when I tell her I will meet her somewhere. Generally speaking (again), I don't think it's great to have the spouse watch you play. It also doesn't hurt to buy her a small gift from the winnings (I know, the pros say that hurts EV). What has made my wife supportive of my play (in addition to the things above) is keeping my BJ bankroll separate from other money so I am never risking the kid's college education or next month's mortgage payment.
 
S

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Golf is much more expensive ...

these days. I'm a long way from being a pro at golf and therefore, there is never any chance for possitive EV with golf. BJ certainly beats golf in the long run.
 
R

revereman

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
The Long Run

Ah yes, the elusive long run. It's very hard to reach. Some of the best advantage BJ players tell of losing money in a year or more. I don't know what stakes you play at BJ, but golf very rarely costs you $5k or more in a day. If you're strictly talking golf vs. BJ as a money maker, BJ is probably better in the long run. But on the flip side, you can lose a lot more money playing BJ than playing golf. In a new marriage (maybe any marriage), time is also a consideration. You seem to have set up a situation in your marriage where it was either golf or BJ and I'm not sure if both time and money were a consideration or if it was just money. Let's say you spend a $100 per week on golf for a total of $400 per month. Or you spend 5 hours a week playing BJ and lost $1000 that month (and maybe do that for 6 months in a row), is it better to spend $2400 on golf or lose $6000 in BJ over a six month period? There's really no right or wrong answer. You wrote something like if you lose money at BJ in the mid-term, your playing days are over. Therefore, you may never get to the long run. I'm not looking to argue with you, just trying to give you the benfit of my experience.
 
S

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Spouses need to put it all into the right perspective

Actually it is my wife doing most of analyzing of golf vs. BJ. She has a friend who's hubby plays a lot of golf. It's very time consuming and expensive + he gets grouchy if his game has some bad variance and as a result his wife complains about it. What's cool is it all makes me and my BJ playing look a hell of a lot better. My wife even thinks I like golf better than I actually do. I'll just let that ride like that. Right now, instead of increasing my bank roll significantly, I give my wife some of my winnings. She gets really jazzed about buying herself some cloths, gas or even groceries with casino money. ;-)
 
W

wong out

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
BJ vs Golf

I dont understand the comparison. BJ is a short term business proposition with a + expected value (although you do have to survive the swings). Golf (at least for most mortals) is nothing but a hobby that costs money with no opportunity to recoup your loss (cost). It would seem more appropriate to compare BJ to other investment opportunities and to compare golf to other luxury items.

wong out
 
S

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
That's just my point with my wife

Golf is always a losing proposition for us +20 handicappers when analyzed dollar for dollar and for the hours burned. However, I do like to play golf but given a choice, which is the case between my wife and I, I choose BJ.

I do also admit to letting her believe I really, really miss golf. ;-)
 
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