unbelievably bad luck

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wvbjplayer

Well-Known Member
Could somebody please calculate the odds of my losing $6,800 in approx 100 hours of play, with an average bet of $50, using hi-lo and playing perfect BS? Also the standard deviation.

Thanks much in advance,
wvbjplayer
 
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ThodorisK

Well-Known Member
Amount lost / average bet = No of bets lost.
i.e. that's the size of the fall in No of bets.

What are you talking about?
 
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bjcount

Well-Known Member
ThodorisK said:
Amount lost / average bet = No of bets lost.
i.e. that's the size of the fall in No of bets.

What are you talking about?
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He simply asked for the odds of losing X dollars in Y hours at Z bet, also SD. Not N0, SCORE, or anything else.
but then again I am no math wiz so maybe your talking above my understanding.


I dont use hi lo , so if he plays using hi lo, run a sim for him. You will also needs the rules and bankroll
 
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matt21

Well-Known Member
wvbjplayer said:
Could somebody please calculate the odds of my losing $6,800 in approx 100 hours of play, with an average bet of $50, using hi-lo and playing perfect BS? Also the standard deviation.

Thanks much in advance,
wvbjplayer
Click to expand...

hi there, i am happy to run this for you.
but i need to know:
1. your bet ramp in order to run a sim (how much were you betting at each true count, and details of any wong-in/wong-out points).
2. The game rules
3. You also need to provide an approx number of rounds played per hour.
4. Finally what is the typical pen level in your game
5. Confirm that you are not using any index plays (you said you play perfect BS)
6. Starting bankroll

However, even before i put this through a sim - if your average bet is $50, then you are probably using a $25 standard unit - which would means that you are 272 units down in 100 hours of play. I can tell you right away that is a very possible result and mostly likely within the reach of just 1 standard deviation.

In my sample of 400 hours (although the rules and playing conditions may well differ from yours!) - I had 1 run of +256 units in only 50 hours, a loss of 439 units in 124 hours, and a win of 257 units over the last 130 hours. So the variances (whether positive or negative) are not vastly different from your 100-hour result.

Anyways if you are happy to provide the above info, then i will try to run it through a sim for you and let you know ROR, odds and SD :)
 
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zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
ThodorisK said:
These swings in so little time are within 1 sd? :eek: I dont believe that even if you all agree with it.
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I think you are mistaken and without understanding... but for benefit of doubt, what was your typical topBet amount and estimated frequency thereof? zg
 
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matt21

Well-Known Member
ThodorisK said:
These swings in so little time are within 1 sd? :eek: I dont believe that even if you all agree with it.
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Hi ThodorisK
For my play-all playing conditions, one standard deviation for 100 hours (playing 100 hands/hour) is close to 300 units. so yes, all of these results are within (or close to) 1 std dev - well except maybe for the first 50 hours - on that one i was just extremely lucky - thank God it was positive variance!! :)
 
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bjcount

Well-Known Member
ThodorisK said:
These swings in so little time are within 1 sd? :eek: I dont believe that even if you all agree with it.
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Using my simple math, there is a total action of $50/hand x 50h/hr = 2,500/hr
$2,500 x 100 hrs = $250,000 total action
250,000 x -0.4 disadvantage(estimate) using BS = a theretical loss of $10,000
I'd venture to guess that 6,800 is well within 1 SD.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
If you were just playing BS then you are within 1 SD. If you were counting cards (using generic numbers for HiLo) you are probably around 1.5 SDs. Either way your swing is very normal.

-Sonny-
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
If you were just playing BS then you are within 1 SD. If you were counting cards (using generic numbers for HiLo) you are probably around 1.5 SDs.
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He might be below -1 SD for basic strategy, as the variance for basic strategy play is a lot smaller than for card counting. Assuming an average bet of $50 means a unit bet of $25 ...

1 SD for BS = 1.15 x sqrt(10,000 hands) = 115 units ($3,000)
EV for BS = 10,000 * -0.005 * 25 = -$1,250
-$6800 = EV - (2 SD)

1 SD for CC = 3 x sqrt(10,000 hands) = 300 units ($7,500)
EV for CC = 10,000 * +0.01 = +$2,500
-$6800 = EV - (1.25 SD)

Edit: the other option is that he's ramping his bets, but not counting correctly. In which case EV = EV(BS) and SD = SD(CC); -$6800 = -0.57 SD below EV.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
If you think that your result was abnormal to the point of being supernatural or evidence of cheating - BLACKJACK is not for you.

I have had awesome positive and negative swings.

I once won $45,000+ in one 6 deck shoe in Atlantic City.
I have lost 5 figure sums as well, and painfully often too.

BJ is a game of incredible swings.

If you cannot accept sitting down with the 100% certain knowledge that losing a big pile of money is a real possibility, then BJ is NOT for you.

Callipygian's post is EXCELLENT !
I suggest that you read it a few times until you "get it"
 
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Billy C1

Well-Known Member
Accuracy

Edit: the other option is that he's ramping his bets, but not counting correctly. In which case EV = EV(BS) and SD = SD(CC); -$6800 = -0.57 SD below EV.[/QUOTE]

Very good point! Guessing at the count is asking for trouble. Accuracy is paramount when ramping.

Billy C1
 
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matt21

Well-Known Member
i ahve another swing example.

Down 110 units in four hours of play. This seems like a real butt-kicking. However that results is just on 2 SD away from the EV. So i should expect a kicking like that approx 2.5% of the time (or once every 45-50 sessions!).

Yes BJ definitely is definitely a game of incredible swings!! :grin:
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
wvbjplayer said:
Could somebody please calculate the odds of my losing $6,800 in approx 100 hours of play, with an average bet of $50, using hi-lo and playing perfect BS? Also the standard deviation.
Click to expand...
Hey, welcome back.

If I were that good, I could also tell you who won the football game when all I know is one team finished with 21 points lol.

Like others have suggested, much more info is needed.

While I assume it's quite likely you have played alot of different games alot of different ways over 100 hours, maybe you could, as a start, specify 1 game and spread, maybe the game you have bet and played most consistently most often.

I won't even ask why you did not ask this 99 hours ago, the past is the past, since the most important question, to me anyway lol, is will you be able to answer this question in your next hour of play?

Learn how to fish and you will never go hungry, if you see what I mean.
 
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Kasi

Well-Known Member
callipygian said:
He might be below -1 SD for basic strategy, as the variance for basic strategy play is a lot smaller than for card counting. Assuming an average bet of $50 means a unit bet of $25 ...

1 SD for BS = 1.15 x sqrt(10,000 hands) = 115 units ($3,000)
EV for BS = 10,000 * -0.005 * 25 = -$1,250
-$6800 = EV - (2 SD)
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If he were a BS player with an avg initial bet of $50, assume a $50 flat-betting BS player to make it simple, after playing 10000 hands he will have wagered 500,000 and his EV would be -$2500, not -$1250.

One SD would be 115 units like you say. Or 115 * $50 in dollars or $5750. So a $6800 loss would be within 1 SD, only $4300 below EV?

That's how I'd do it anyway.

And your assumption of 3 units as a SD for a CC can vary quite a bit? Why'd you choose 3? Not to mention an avg advantage of 1%, if that is what you chose?
 
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