Please forgive me for what will surely be a longer post, but I have some information to share and some questions to ask (don't we all?)
I live in North Dakota, where every little bar or "casino" in each town seems to have a blackjack game. The town I live in has 18 different locations I could get a game on any given night. Most games are excellent. They are 4 deck S17 and come with a 0.32% house edge (however, betting is capped at $3-25). Besides the rules, what is most important is the shuffle. The dealers run through a one pass shuffle where they split the 4 deck into 2 piles and grab either 1/3 or 1/4 of each pile and riffle the cards 3 times. This offers a golden opportunity for shuffle tracking (more specifically section tracking).
My big question is how to calculate an edge here. I know it is hard to calculate frequencies and things of that nature, but generally speaking, I should be able to calculate an edge if I know the theoretical TC of a 2 deck section. For example:
Say I have 4 decks, decks ABCD. As these decks go into the discard tray, I note the running count of each deck. Let us say they go as follows:
A +4
B -5
C +3
D -2
When they get broke up into two piles...
A C
B D
They then get shuffled together as such...
A+C and B+D, yielding a running count of -7 for the first two deck section (AC) and +7 for the second 2 deck section (BD).
Now I know that the "true count" for that 2 deck section (AC) is theoretically -3.5, I know that I have 3.5 more big cards than little cards per deck during that two deck section, and thus should be able to raise my bets during this portion of the shoe. Note that negative counts being a good thing here is a little counter-intuitive to what counters are used to, but it follows the same idea that we know when the big cards are to come, and know that we should have a theoretical advantage when there are more big cards to come than little cards.
I would like to find a way to calculate my edge for the rich sections of the deck. If I know those two decks are a theoretical -3.5, is this like playing with a +3.5 edge in a normal card counting situation? My first thoughts were no, because you can lose rich sections of deck behind the cut card, and with section tracking you theoretically know that those rich sections of high cards will come out, and when they should be coming out. It is almost like having 100% penetration.
I could get into things like keeping the count and trying to keep track of what should come and what has yet to come in those two deck sections, but for now that is too complicated. What type of sims or mathematics can be run so that I can get a chart that tells me what my edge should be if a 2 deck section is a theoretical true -1, -2, -3 etc? Thank you for taking the time to read this and I look forward to any and all responses.
I live in North Dakota, where every little bar or "casino" in each town seems to have a blackjack game. The town I live in has 18 different locations I could get a game on any given night. Most games are excellent. They are 4 deck S17 and come with a 0.32% house edge (however, betting is capped at $3-25). Besides the rules, what is most important is the shuffle. The dealers run through a one pass shuffle where they split the 4 deck into 2 piles and grab either 1/3 or 1/4 of each pile and riffle the cards 3 times. This offers a golden opportunity for shuffle tracking (more specifically section tracking).
My big question is how to calculate an edge here. I know it is hard to calculate frequencies and things of that nature, but generally speaking, I should be able to calculate an edge if I know the theoretical TC of a 2 deck section. For example:
Say I have 4 decks, decks ABCD. As these decks go into the discard tray, I note the running count of each deck. Let us say they go as follows:
A +4
B -5
C +3
D -2
When they get broke up into two piles...
A C
B D
They then get shuffled together as such...
A+C and B+D, yielding a running count of -7 for the first two deck section (AC) and +7 for the second 2 deck section (BD).
Now I know that the "true count" for that 2 deck section (AC) is theoretically -3.5, I know that I have 3.5 more big cards than little cards per deck during that two deck section, and thus should be able to raise my bets during this portion of the shoe. Note that negative counts being a good thing here is a little counter-intuitive to what counters are used to, but it follows the same idea that we know when the big cards are to come, and know that we should have a theoretical advantage when there are more big cards to come than little cards.
I would like to find a way to calculate my edge for the rich sections of the deck. If I know those two decks are a theoretical -3.5, is this like playing with a +3.5 edge in a normal card counting situation? My first thoughts were no, because you can lose rich sections of deck behind the cut card, and with section tracking you theoretically know that those rich sections of high cards will come out, and when they should be coming out. It is almost like having 100% penetration.
I could get into things like keeping the count and trying to keep track of what should come and what has yet to come in those two deck sections, but for now that is too complicated. What type of sims or mathematics can be run so that I can get a chart that tells me what my edge should be if a 2 deck section is a theoretical true -1, -2, -3 etc? Thank you for taking the time to read this and I look forward to any and all responses.