update - player moving to vegas

D

desertwolf

Member
I am not a new member but it's been a while since I posted, so I thought I should update my situation. I do read the postings regularly, when ever I can get to the library. I don't have internet at my home.

Just to refresh, I am retired, with very limited small social security disability income. I live alone and this income is enough to meet my basic living expenses. I have played blackjack for many years for fun and a little extra money, using basic counting hi-lo methods from Stamford Wong's book. I moved to Las Vegas in January from rural Pa. I had some experience with city living years ago, but this is quite a culture shock. The weather so far has been far better than I even hoped for, but I know the worst is just ahead. I have previously visited Las Vegas during the summertime, so I have some idea.

I have also found the blackjack opportunities to be pretty much what I was hoping for. The rules are not great for $5 games, but there are plenty to play. Most are dealer hit 17, which I hate, but it is what I have experienced in Atlantic City the last 5 years. I was a little spoiled by the stand 17 rules that I got to play in Pa a bit last fall before moving.

I had hoped to supplement my income to the tune of about $500-$600 per month. To date that is not the case. I am ahead just under $900 in my time here which is less than half what I was hoping for. I don't need these fund to live off of but want to build my BR up to perhaps play better games at a higher level. BR is just barely 5 figures and sadly pretty much is my net worth, so I don't want to be too risky.

Over all my experience is going fairly well, about as I expected. I am enjoying living in Las Vegas and playing a lot of blackjack and really enjoyed not firing up the snow blower this past winter. I was lucky enough to have met a guy from this site, who is a pro player and very knowledgable about Las Vegas. He showed me around for 2 days, gave me a book with info of all the casino in Las Vegas, including some matchplay coupons and good food discounts. He showed me some other bonuses around town like some deals where you buy chips and they give you additional bonus chips. These opportunities are very useful to someone playing on a budget. He also pointed me toward some smaller outlying casinos away from the strip that have better low limit games. Some below $5 which I though didn't happen anymore.

So I want to thank him and everyone that responded to my last post back in January. Even though I don't have internet and can't post often I read the posts here when I can and have learned some good stuff. I am still working on my first 10 posts, sucker so I will send you a message as soon as I am able, which you offered back in January.

I noticed poster Automatic Monkey talking about coupon runs in vegas in a different section. Can he or anyone explain how this works and what places give out coupons? And how you get them?
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Hey Pa! I was thinking about you not long ago, wondering how you are making out. Glad to hear you are doing reasonably well. :)

Since you used to live near Paradise (pa) and now live in paradise NV (section of LV), not all that much has changed. Maybe a few less amish buggy's on the road. :laugh: ok, maybe a couple other differences too. ;)

Send me a email or give me a call sometime. (or if you ever reach 10 posts, message me here, but at the rate you are going.......:laugh:)
 
M

Midwestern

Well-Known Member
math for your target income

i wanted to do some math to help figure out how much you had to play in order to get to your target income....

I am assuming you are playing a 1-10 spread of $5-$50 and wonging out at negative counts. therefore your average bet amount will be ~ $10.

In order to supplement your income by an additional $500-600 per month, you would need to play about 6000 hands a month. which is about 100 hours of play. (20 days a month, 5 hours per trip?)

here is my math:

20 trips to Store x 5 Hours per Trip x 60 hands per hour = 6000 hands per month.

average AP Player edge of %1.00 x 6000 hands x $10 average bet = Expected profit of $600. which is equivalent to 1.2 units per hour.

Can anyone else chime in on my estimate here? Am i overestimating or Underestimating any parameters? Am i using flawed logic?

I want to make sure Desertwolf has a reasonable expectation of what it takes to earn $600 at his stakes.
 
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Ferretnparrot

Ferretnparrot

Well-Known Member
If your playing low stakes, I would definately ensure that you open a players club card at every single venue, and play it at least once a month, this way, they will continue to mail you coupons, which you can periodically take advantage of. If you get a whole slew of casinos mailign your coupons, you will have an arsenal at your disposal at any given moment, 10 bucks here, free food there, and the usualy stuff like givaways, free rooms etc.

With a small bankroll, any money saved is money earned, you still have to eat while you wrokd the tables so you can easily save money there every day by taking advantage of the coupons.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Midwestern said:
i wanted to do some math to help figure out how much you had to play in order to get to your target income....

I am assuming you are playing a 1-10 spread of $5-$50 and wonging out at negative counts. therefore your average bet amount will be ~ $10.

In order to supplement your income by an additional $500-600 per month, you would need to play about 6000 hands a month. which is about 1000 hours of play. (20 days a month, 5 hours per trip?)

here is my math:

20 trips to Store x 5 Hours per Trip x 60 hands per hour = 6000 hands per month.

average AP Player edge of %1.00 x 6000 hands x $10 average bet = Expected profit of $600. which is equivalent to 1.2 units per hour.

Can anyone else chime in on my estimate here? Am i overestimating or Underestimating any parameters? Am i using flawed logic?

I want to make sure Desertwolf has a reasonable expectation of what it takes to earn $600 at his stakes.
Click to expand...
Conservatively, I think your win rate should be about $5 an hour, so you will need to play about 100 hours a month to achieve $500, 120 hours to achieve $600. I think that's more like 8K or 9K hands.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
If you are playing Hi-Lo at mediocre games with a $5 to $50 spread that ought to earn you about $10 / hr. if playing DD and about $8 / hour at shoe games.

Simple enough to figure out. Just do the math.

You'll need about 12 to 15 hrs. a week "more or less."

All figures are (very) approximate.

I strongly suggest that you take a gander at:

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blackjack-survey//
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
If you are playing Hi-Lo at mediocre games with a $5 to $50 spread that ought to earn you about $10 / hr. if playing DD and about $8 / hour at shoe games.

Simple enough to figure out. Just do the math.

You'll need about 12 to 15 hrs. a week "more or less."

All figures are (very) approximate.

I strongly suggest that you take a gander at:

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blackjack-survey//
Click to expand...
You really think that a $5 shoe game using hilo will yield $10 an hour? I think you'd be lucky to get $6 out of it.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
Learn to play coupons and matchplays, too.

Are you getting most of your meals comped as well? This could be a big boon to your bottom line as an individual on a fixed income.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
You really think that a $5 shoe game using hilo will yield $10 an hour? I think you'd be lucky to get $6 out of it.
Click to expand...

PS-- Here we go. 400M hands, S17, 6-deck, 75% pen, 2 other players, DOA, DAS, SA1, HiLo count


The win rate is $4.88 per hour
411,615,492 hands played

Sagefr0g, how do you paste charts from CVData?
 
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kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Where did you guys come up with this information that you are using for these sims? :confused: I don't see where the OP provided anything at all. No mention of spread. No mention of what kind of games (# decks). No mention of any rules except h17 and for some reason you have ignored that and are running sims for s17. :confused: No mention of style of play (play all or wong) No mention of penetration. No mention of how many hours/hands he plays a week. I see only two pieces of information given. H17 games and that he is probably playing a $5 unit. Everything else is assumed or guessed at. Seems like you are assuming an aweful lot. :eek::confused:
 
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M

Midwestern

Well-Known Member
desertwolf said:
I had hoped to supplement my income to the tune of about $500-$600 per month. To date that is not the case. I am ahead just under $900 in my time here which is less than half what I was hoping for. I don't need these fund to live off of but want to build my BR up to perhaps play better games at a higher level. BR is just barely 5 figures and sadly pretty much is my net worth, so I don't want to be too risky.
Click to expand...
you're right, i did assume alot. but i think the assumptions were fair and I meant well by posting. I don't want to discourage the guy, i just want to make sure that he is setting a realistic expectation.:angel:

given the information above i assumed that the original poster was disappointed that AP blackjack was not living up to his hopes regarding monthly income. with my post, i wanted to help the original Poster set a realistic expectation for how much play was needed to make his target.

if his BR is just barely 5 figures (for all practical purposes $10,001) and also happens to equal his net worth, we can assume that he will NOT be willing to risk the entire bankroll (if he wants live comfortably in retirement). This leaves me with 2 assumptions: he either uses a fraction of his net worth (say half) for BJ, or he aims for a rock bottom ROR, both of which suggest that a 5$ base unit is appropriate for his risk tolerance. Any suggestions to play at stakes higher than that would be too risky for a retired guy with limited income.

i think most of the other posters were just riding on that wave and elaborating futher. Running a sim with decent rules (S17) will probably give the upper bound of expectation, hence giving the OP a conservative estimate. No use giving aggressive estimates here, we're not trying to sell anything! :)

a few members have addressed the 2nd part of his post regarding Comps. I am not a "comps guy" so i'll let others do the talking on that front.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Midwestern said:
how big of a spread did you use aslan? 1-4? 1-8? 1-16?
Click to expand...
Sorry I am so late getting back to you. First I installed a new operating system. Then my Office would not work, so I ended up having to purchase a new Office Suite. During all this, I had a plumber in to fix a pipe leak inside my family room wall (I'm staring at a gaping hole right now), and then I had to plow my way through rush hour traffic to pick up a new cell phone replacement. Then dinnertime. Any, way, where were we. Oh, yes, I used a 1 to 10 betting spread. Yes, Kewl is right, the OP only mentioned an H17 game. I didn't go back and check when I responded to your post. Make it $4.29 an hour for H17. Dismal.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
FLASH1296 said:
If you are playing Hi-Lo at mediocre games with a $5 to $50 spread that ought to earn you about $10 / hr. if playing DD and about $8 / hour at shoe games.
Click to expand...
He's got to avoid -EV consistently at shoe play. But its hard for old codgers to not stay put and play-all. zg
 
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