Here's a crazy question. For easy math, lets say a great counter wins 52% of the time and loses 48% of the time. If you are on your losing streak, why can't you play online, for free, or at your kitchen table to overcome it...at least a little. I know, crazy, but it shouldn't matter if you're at a table or not, right? I think???
Variance
- Thread starter aneuzil21
- Start date
What you described is a common misconception that people have about gambling. It will not work because of the law of Independence. What happens on your kitchen table cannot change the probability of winning a hand at the casino. Your game at home or online is independent of the game in the casino. Furthermore, there is no way to know when a winning or losing "streak" will end or begin.
Boatman117
Active Member
This kinda goes along with something I have been kicking around in my head too.
Having to do with "The Long Run" .....
I have been wondering if these thousand or so hands a day in practice do count ....??
If doing enough of these will help even things out ....
I mean as a learning aid and counting practice they are great. And also for seeing things you wouldnt have believed possible in a casino or in a real game ... but once you do its a little easier to take ...
And if they don't, Why not ??
I know they are not in a casino, but if you bounce around to different tables, different casinos, different cities .... thats all changing too ...
I keep remembering what I read ....
I think it was Mr. Renzey who said .... "It's all one long game ..."
This makes sense to me .... on many levels ...
and not all having to do with Blackjack !!!
So anyway, thats take on it ....
But I could be wrong .... God knows I've been wrong before ....
Having to do with "The Long Run" .....
I have been wondering if these thousand or so hands a day in practice do count ....??
If doing enough of these will help even things out ....
I mean as a learning aid and counting practice they are great. And also for seeing things you wouldnt have believed possible in a casino or in a real game ... but once you do its a little easier to take ...
And if they don't, Why not ??
I know they are not in a casino, but if you bounce around to different tables, different casinos, different cities .... thats all changing too ...
I keep remembering what I read ....
I think it was Mr. Renzey who said .... "It's all one long game ..."
This makes sense to me .... on many levels ...
and not all having to do with Blackjack !!!
So anyway, thats take on it ....
But I could be wrong .... God knows I've been wrong before ....
gibsonlp33stl
Well-Known Member
The main problem is that as soon as one shoe ends...who's to say whether that next shoe is going to be a winner or not. If you play at home and win or lose money out of your bankroll...than yes that counts.
Essentially it doesn't matter if you leave a casino during a bad streak, go home and play a million hands for fun...when you go back to the casino, the chances of getting a bad shoe is the exact same as it was when you were there last time and left because of a bad streak.
Your logic is like saying someone asks you to guess a number between 1 and 10....so you go home first, have your wife pick a number, you guess...do this until you miss 9 times in a row. Now go back to your initial friend and guess his number between 1 and 10. Just because you went home and missed 9 times, doesn't mean you're anymore likely to get it right the next time. Same thing with Roulette, just cause 6 blacks came up in a row, doesn't mean the chance of the next one being red is any higher...
Essentially it doesn't matter if you leave a casino during a bad streak, go home and play a million hands for fun...when you go back to the casino, the chances of getting a bad shoe is the exact same as it was when you were there last time and left because of a bad streak.
Your logic is like saying someone asks you to guess a number between 1 and 10....so you go home first, have your wife pick a number, you guess...do this until you miss 9 times in a row. Now go back to your initial friend and guess his number between 1 and 10. Just because you went home and missed 9 times, doesn't mean you're anymore likely to get it right the next time. Same thing with Roulette, just cause 6 blacks came up in a row, doesn't mean the chance of the next one being red is any higher...
It's a numbers game
There's no need to complicate something that has such an easy answer. If players could predict when "streaks" would begin and end, we wouldn't be playing BJ anywhere.
My belief is that the true pro BJ players will bet a +6 true count exactly the same during a losing period as they do during a winning period. The words "streak" ,"run" , etc. probably don't exist in their vocabulary. It's all about numbers!
Billy C1
There's no need to complicate something that has such an easy answer. If players could predict when "streaks" would begin and end, we wouldn't be playing BJ anywhere.
My belief is that the true pro BJ players will bet a +6 true count exactly the same during a losing period as they do during a winning period. The words "streak" ,"run" , etc. probably don't exist in their vocabulary. It's all about numbers!
Billy C1
standard toaster
Well-Known Member
The cards do not have any type of memory whatsoever. What you are refering to can be considered the gamblers falacy. Each event is independent of all the others. If you were playing roulette and saw there were 24 blacks in a row is it safe to say red is more likely to hit? The answer is absolutley not. The odds are still exactly the same... none of the black spots were removed there are still 18 red and 18 black... The same goes with sessions... if you are in the middle of a "streak" the only way to get out of it is to continue playing and playing.... you have to realize as well you are more prone to lose than to win in any casino game. Playing in a different casino does not matter playing at home does not matter a different table year dimension it all does not matter at all. Each event is its own and can not be judged by past events.
