Varied insurance payout, add to how much player's edge?

Dipsy

Dipsy

Member
Greetings,

I've found a single deck game with improved insurance payout, 11/5 or odds of 3.2. The bet can be advantagous on any hand when the player does not have a 10 card showing:

3.2*16/49=1.0449 or a player edge of 4.49%. since it is only half the original bet, so the advantage in terms of the original bet would be 2.245%

I'm suspecting the overall house edge reduced would be the result calculated above multiplied by the chance of the advantagous situation happening, ie:

2.245%(1/13)(35/51)(34/50)=0.0806%

It is an online casino game and shuffles after every hand. I'm wondering how much overall house edge does this shave off? Please enlighten me on this question, thank you

Please also show how you calculated it if possible.
 
Dipsy

Dipsy

Member
christopher1 said:
also r u sure its 11:5 and not 11 for 5 (which would really be 6:5 and an even worse bet than normal insurance)
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and yes it is slightly better than normal insurance of 2 to 1.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
It should significantly improve the playing efficiency of your count. I'm not sure if it would be worth using a different system or anything, but it would add a decent amount to a counter's edge.

Can anyone sim this? Where the hell is Sonny when we need him?!
 
Dipsy

Dipsy

Member
moo321 said:
It should significantly improve the playing efficiency of your count. I'm not sure if it would be worth using a different system or anything, but it would add a decent amount to a counter's edge.

Can anyone sim this? Where the hell is Sonny when we need him?!
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:grin: it's not a countable game, it is an online casino game, i'm wondering how much the increased insurance payout adds to the player's edge?
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
Dipsy said:
:grin: it's not a countable game, it is an online casino game, i'm wondering how much the increased insurance payout adds to the player's edge?
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Assuming games are dealt from full shoes, 11 to 5 insurance payout odds are worth:
1 deck .161%
2 decks .050%
3 decks .014%
4 or more decks no advantage
 
Dipsy

Dipsy

Member
k_c said:
Assuming games are dealt from full shoes, 11 to 5 insurance payout odds are worth:
1 deck .161%
2 decks .050%
3 decks .014%
4 or more decks no advantage
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hi k_c can you show me how you came up with the number on 1 deck?
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
Dipsy said:
hi k_c can you show me how you came up with the number on 1 deck?
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In order for an insurance bet with 11 to 5 payoff odds to be an even bet then dealer should have a T in the hole .3125 of the time. If T is in hole more than .3125 of the time then insurance is positive EV.

Dealer must have up card of ace in order to have any possibility of insurance bet. When dealt from a full single deck this happens 4/52 of the time.

Player's possible hands relative to insurance and their probabilities given up card of ace are:
(T=ten, NT=non-ten)
T-T 16/51*15/50 (Prob of T in hole = 14/49; 14/49 < .3125 so no advantage)
T-NT 16/51*35/50*2 (Prob of T in hole = 15/49; 15/49 < .3125 so no advantage)
NT-NT 35/51*34/50 (Prob of T in hole = 16/49; 16/49 > .3125 so there is an advantage)

Only hand with advantage is NT-NT with prob of T in hole = 16/49
Advantage for this hand = 3.2*16/49 - 1 =~ 0.044898
Prob of hand occuring with up card of ace = 4/52*35/51*34/50
Overall ins advantage for hand = 4/52*35/51*34/50*(3.2*16/49 - 1) =~ 0.0016117
Overall ins advantage for hand (in percent) =~ .161%
 
T

tensplitter

Well-Known Member
If it's 11 to 5 insurance on single deck online, write a bot and have it play the game 24 hours a day. You'll have an edge just with basic strategy and always taking insurance if you don't have a ten.
 
Dipsy

Dipsy

Member
tensplitter said:
If it's 11 to 5 insurance on single deck online, write a bot and have it play the game 24 hours a day. You'll have an edge just with basic strategy and always taking insurance if you don't have a ten.
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i don't think so, the game has off the top house edge of .20% according to wizard's calculator.
1deck
S17
D10-11
split to 4 hands
NDAS
NRSA
LS

i'm wondering if playing multi hand can shave off the house edge a little more because multi hand is also offered?
 
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