Very short sessions?

[shinyam]

I drove down to the casino after work (about an hour), and played for maybe an hour and a half. Won $325. I drove back home. Obviously, this is not something one should do all the time, since in the long run you're paying $15 for gas, and making maybe $40 (an hour and a half's expected winnings). And spending two hours of driving to do this.

But the reality is that for this session I won 10 hours worth, and got to go home early. Had I played on, I could have lost a lot of money.

So, this "safe" decision to leave after winning, is it a good one? Mind you, most of my sessions are much longer. Would you have played another couple hours to pay for the overhead of travel time and gas? Or would you have quit as I have, since you already made far more than what was expected?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Expenses

The real cost of 100 miles of driving is about $50+. It's the cost of the gas, depreciation of the vehicle and other maintenance costs. If it's a new car the cost of depreciation will be more and if an older vehicle less.

Go less frequently but stay as long as you are below the heat threshold.:joker::whip:

One can make up for short sessions by putting in longer ones, so it is possible to leave after an early big win as long as you make the time up later.:joker::whip:

 

[fwb]

But the reality is that for this session I won 10 hours worth, and got to go home early. Had I played on, I could have lost a lot of money.

So, this "safe" decision to leave after winning, is it a good one?

Common logical fallacy. Stopping early doesn't make a lick of difference statistically. If you would have stayed 1000 more hours that one trip, it 's the same as if were to play 1000 hours over 200 more sessions. If you have good conditions and the time to utilize them, you are losing money if you leave early.

 

[sagefr0g]

Common logical fallacy. Stopping early doesn't make a lick of difference statistically. If you would have stayed 1000 more hours that one trip, it 's the same as if were to play 1000 hours over 200 more sessions. If you have good conditions and the time to utilize them, you are losing money if you leave early.

theoretically maybe you'd be losing money by leaving early. but isn't it really not known if you'd lose money by leaving early, in fact not known if you'd win or lose money by leaving early?
isn't it more like you'd lose some potential for realizing expected value and potential for realizing positive standard deviation but in fact you know that you wont experience realization of negative standard deviation for that trip or session?
isn't really what is lost expected value?
if the OP won ten times his expected value, quitting early shouldn't mean that he should expect to lose nine tenths of what he won the next time he plays.
quitting early would just mean his rate of play has been slowed down. the next time he plays he is free to play how ever he chooses, play the full amount of time possible or not, his choice.
isn't the quality of play available for a given amount of time for some trip or session in practical terms not really known? isn't it true that what is normally a session or a trip is a short term event and that in the short term virtually anything can happen?
i can see where a pro (who only plays blackjack) may not want to make such decisions but it can be viewed differently for recreational players who may have other considerations. actually i believe the question of quitting early could be a decision a pro might consider as well if he has other options for consideration in his pursuit of money.

 

[Meistro]

Actually stopping early costs you money. You are more likely to win in the next hour then you are to lose.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I drove down to the casino after work (about an hour), and played for maybe an hour and a half. Won $325. I drove back home. Obviously, this is not something one should do all the time, since in the long run you're paying $15 for gas, and making maybe $40 (an hour and a half's expected winnings). And spending two hours of driving to do this.

But the reality is that for this session I won 10 hours worth, and got to go home early. Had I played on, I could have lost a lot of money.

So, this "safe" decision to leave after winning, is it a good one? Mind you, most of my sessions are much longer. Would you have played another couple hours to pay for the overhead of travel time and gas? Or would you have quit as I have, since you already made far more than what was expected?

Play until you no longer wish to play, or until you have something better to do. All you did was not claim your extra hours of EV by leaving. If it's worth it to play for $30 per hour, it's worth it whether the last hour was a good one or a bad one, no?

 

[metronome]

Mr. Monkey said it best, play until you no longer wish to play...
We humans are funny creatures. Did he give up future winnings, expected EV, average win rates per hour etc. etc.
What about the Zen part. Was it a profitable session, did you have an enjoyable experiance, was it a nice relaxing "road trip".
Was the doobie on the way home a nice even burn.
Wow, I just missed my turn :cool2: