Wake up

U

unknown_aussie

Member
Come on guys, WAKE UP! Accept the fact that there is NO betting system that works. Period.

You suck or have minimal success at card counting, probably because you refuse to stick with the rules, and lost when you bet big on high count, so you fall back to betting systems. Accept the facts. Card counting works, betting systems do not.

I apologise to the mods for this rant.
 
unknown_aussie said:
Come on guys, WAKE UP! Accept the fact that there is NO betting system that works. Period.
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Amen to that, I'm sick of people trying to persuade us that they have successful betting methods that defy all odds and mathematics.
Quote from Shadroch:
No matter how you vary your bets,if the game has negative expectations,you will end up losing in the long run.
 
of course your right. yes & no

a betting system is bound to fail if you apply it like a mindless robot just as an advantage system is bound to win big bucks when applied like a mindless robot. as Sharock says that's the nature of playing without an edge or with an edge. let's just not forget there is always a maybe involved in the above considerations. some cluless guy with a betting system just might win some ridiculously high amount of loot that he could play his ass off for the rest of his life and never lose it all just as some brilliant advantage player could play according to 'hoyle' for almost a lifetime and lose some incredibly large bankroll that he started out with. certainly not a likely scenerio but let be honest and admitt it's possible.
so but this is the voodoo forum. a terminology i was once resolute against but now see the wisdom of. here you can talk about doing stupid things and not so much have to worry about it. lol.
here you can make silly analogies of blackjack results to quantum mechanical results such as in quantum mechanical tunneling where a lesser energy can and does overcome a higher energy. maybe dream that the impassable edge the casino has against you can be overcome by your lesser edge. casino's after all are a part of the physical world just as electrons and such are. not to mention the human mind. let's not forget that a caveman armed with a spear against a raging tiger has a pretty good chance to come out ahead. even though the tiger is a natural born instinctual killer of emense physical prowess while the caveman is physically relatively a wimp. lol.
so but those are just silly propositions that mean nothing just maybe a word to the wise lol.
it's maybe something to know for those that don't such as was i that there are all kinds of options, possibilities and frames of mind that one can approach the game with other than the orthodox known AP approachs to the game. it bandied about on the advanced strategies forum that there exists methods of play that hold forth furthur advantages than those commonly known amongst those in the orthodox community that don't know lol.
so maybe at some point a player might get to a point where they think "ok i know all this commonly known orthodox stuff and i know there is more but no one is going to let on about it so hey it's up to me to figure it out myself" maybe you'll stumble upon something new, maybe not. maybe it'll be fun trying, maybe not. lol.
so but Harman and unkown_aussie i didn't see a response from either of you in the poll:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=10749
i'd just be curious if you were constrained to those parameters what you would do? no big deal don't bother if it's beneath you. lol
 
Harman said:
Amen to that, I'm sick of people trying to persuade us that they have successful betting methods that defy all odds and mathematics.
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According to all known laws of aviation there is no way a bee should be able to fly. A bee's wing is too short and their bodies too fat. Bees, of course, fly anyway, because bees don't care what humans think is impossible.

According to all known laws of gambling mathematics, there is no other possible methods of beating the game of Blackjack than those that are presented on this website. But the strategies do exist, and those strategies don't care what the "experts" think is impossible. Nor do I quite frankly.

Licentia
 
Licentia said:
According to all known laws of aviation there is no way a bee should be able to fly.
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That’s a typical response from someone who doesn’t understand what they’re talking about. We’ve been through this already on this website:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=6983

As ususal, you're talking about a topic that you haven't researched at all...and it never ceases to make you look foolish. Welcome back.

-Sonny-
 
Licentia said:
Maybe they have it figured out now, but it just goes to show us how much there is to learn.
Licentia
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what can you tell us about your specially adapted Martingale?
i mean things like how is it expected to behave as far as reaching some goal in some amount of time or something like that. what percentage of sessions can one expect to win or lose? what kind of game is it best for? what do you expect risk of ruin-wise? does one play it like a mindless robot or is some amount of judgement needed? does the system employ stop loss or stop win points? is it meant to be a long term method of play or maybe a stop gap measure should you reach some goal? what are the why's and where fores of the answers to any of these questions?
 
unknown_aussie said:
Come on guys, WAKE UP! Accept the fact that there is NO betting system that works. Period.
Click to expand...

Not disagreeing really but within the category of "no betting systems work in the long run" is the sub-category of "some betting systems work better than others" when a goal and roll, and maybe, maybe not, a time limit is defined.

Would you rather bet your roll one way vs another way when you have the same goal and same capital but betting it one way will increase your chances of achieving your goal even though both will lead to ruin if you played forever?

If a card-counter only plays so much a year or lifetime, is that the best use of his roll given a goal of x?

No betting system defies the laws of probability. Even card-counting. It's those very laws that define how long starting with how much to win how much with what risk in how much time while betting in a defined way will actually last.

Always your money. Always your time. Etc. Am I surprised a betting system can beat BJ in 200,000 hands or so, pick a number,? Not in the slightest.

Whatever lol.
 
I've been reading on this forum that I cannot possibly win over the long run using BS only. While I think that is true for the masses (law of large numbers), I do not believe it is necessarily so for individuals provided they find and adopt a set of rules that provides continuity of play.

That "cannot be done" attitude always reminds me of religious people - their way is the only way! They can even prove it, just ask them.

I've been playing BS since the 1970's (my way), and am happily, a constant winner.

No need to tell you my method as the probability of it working for anybody else is slim as there are a lot of variables that would not be communicated.

Many of my friends also have the ability to constantly win with BS. What the all seem to have in common is common sense, reasonable intelligence, and most of all, the ability of analytical thought. The last of which is not common as most permit emotion to get in the way.

Anyway, that's my thoughts on the subject, I'm done. The original post got me to join and state my position, I WAS going to answer him directly but alas, the hole is too deep already I fear.

BigEd
 
Card counting with sound money management works fine. Dont waste your money, sounds like you can not afford to..

unknown_aussie said:
Come on guys, WAKE UP! Accept the fact that there is NO betting system that works. Period.

You suck or have minimal success at card counting, probably because you refuse to stick with the rules, and lost when you bet big on high count, so you fall back to betting systems. Accept the facts. Card counting works, betting systems do not.

I apologise to the mods for this rant.
Click to expand...
 
BigEd said:
I've been reading on this forum that I cannot possibly win over the long run using BS only. While I think that is true for the masses (law of large numbers), I do not believe it is necessarily so for individuals provided they find and adopt a set of rules that provides continuity of play.

That "cannot be done" attitude always reminds me of religious people - their way is the only way! They can even prove it, just ask them.

I've been playing BS since the 1970's (my way), and am happily, a constant winner.

No need to tell you my method as the probability of it working for anybody else is slim as there are a lot of variables that would not be communicated.

Many of my friends also have the ability to constantly win with BS. What the all seem to have in common is common sense, reasonable intelligence, and most of all, the ability of analytical thought. The last of which is not common as most permit emotion to get in the way.

Anyway, that's my thoughts on the subject, I'm done. The original post got me to join and state my position, I WAS going to answer him directly but alas, the hole is too deep already I fear.

BigEd
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I will give you $15 000 US if you can prove your method works over a billion hand sample.

Leaving while you are up IS NOT common sense at all. I dont get how long you have done it before, you must be playing like once a month or running hot.
 
again yes & no

unknown_aussie said:
.......

Leaving while you are up IS NOT common sense at all. I dont get how long you have done it before, you must be playing like once a month or running hot.
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lol there's more than one way to skin a cat.
i just wish i knew how. :cat:

thing is i think unkown_aussie is your lookin at it from the perspective of maybe a professional advantage player or an orthodox AP at least.
so but if you look at things from another perspective perhaps there could be some common sense at play. capice?

to take it to a ridiculous extreme. imagine you had to make your house payment tomorrow and heck lets even say your a professional AP. you just made enough to make the payment. what you gonna do?
 
Actually, I don't mind a little positive-progression to keep the room cool. A little 1-1-2-3 keeps the PB focused elsewhere.
 
If someone is playing with the rent/mortgage/grocery/kid's college money, I'm thinking you're more a gambler than an AP. Maybe a problem gambler.



sagefr0g said:
to take it to a ridiculous extreme. imagine you had to make your house payment tomorrow and heck lets even say your a professional AP. you just made enough to make the payment. what you gonna do?
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GeorgeD said:
If someone is playing with the rent/mortgage/grocery/kid's college money, I'm thinking you're more a gambler than an AP. Maybe a problem gambler.
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yeah i know and it was just a ridiculous extreme statement.
a professional does live off of pay rent/mortgage/grocery/kid's college unless they are independently wealthy beyond what they make as an AP.
still i know they'd likely be well funded above and beyond thier AP proceeds and bankroll. at least the really professional ones would be. so point taken.
and it's true like aussie said stop wins or stop loss sort of play isn't an AP strategy or benificiel for such a strategy.
point maybe is though that such manuevers need not be totally looked upon as if they have no merit.
it's like money or ev and what it means to any given individual. if i'm a skilled AP and build up a lot of ev and money ok then what next? same as what anyone does with money, pay rent/mortgage/grocery/kid's college or spend it on some thing fun or of value to you.
so i guess this could sound like a problem gambler thing. the idea of paying money or at least risking money to experience the thrill of winning a gamble. and i'll just say that for me it is an incredible intoxicating euphoric social experience. and i can hear the bells going off Danger Danger Will Robinson sort of thing lol. but take that caveat with another thought in mind. that being where one doesn't use the rent/mortgage/grocery/kid's college money for such a pursuit but where one actually uses only money won from the proceeds of such pursuit. further more where it's a point made to watch the bottom line of such money's to where it's never gonna be a use the rent/mortgage/grocery/kid's college money sort of thing. and finally to actually inject enough AP type of play into the equation to make it likely that ones gambling funds actually increase rather than decrease.
 
sagefr0g said:
point maybe is though that such manuevers need not be totally looked upon as if they have no merit.
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I agree. There are some situations where a progression system might be justified. For example, you are playing a craps tournament and in order to win the grand prize you must give yourself the best chance of winning money. Since you expect the other players to lose money (the house does still have the edge after all) you only need to break even or win a small amount in order to beat the others. In this case you might consider using a progression system to maximize your chances of coming out on top. Using a higher variance method might give you a better chance of making a big score, but a progression system will give you an expected win more frequently and with less variance.

-Sonny-
 
Sonny said:
There are some situations where a progression system might be justified. For example, you are playing a craps tournament ...
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Most generally, the progression system works best when there's not a lot of difference between losing a little and losing a lot.

Examples would be if you were in a tournament, if you owed money to the Mafia, or if you were a gambling addict. That's why progression systems have a bad reputation - most people who use them belong to the latter categories.
 
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