What count is +EV?

#1
At what true count is the player edge enough to start making big bets? I have been playing a two deck game with over 50% penetration. Playing pure basic strat and waiting for a +5 or better true count to make big bets, changing form one 5$ bet to two 50$ bets. Should I make big bets with lower counts? Is this Strat enough to be +EV?
 

BJStanko

Well-Known Member
#2
Since you use 1-10 spread in doble deck game I think your EV is fine. To beat most of normal double dck games you would need 1-8 bet spread.

If you tell me what counting system ou use, and rules of game that you play I can calulate exact EV for you.
 
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#4
Double any two
d h s17
pen approx 66%
doub after split

by spread is actually 20 because i play two 50$ hands

my main question is what true count is enough to bet big? i have waiting for 5 but i think that is too high
 

BJStanko

Well-Known Member
#6
1.4 EV Vert HIGH

Yeah I forgot the most important thing. You should start with big bets at +4 counts (this is for typical double deck game).

Your EV for this game as I calculated is about 1.45% and slightly higher (but I like to be conservative), and it is if you spread 1-10 on one hand. This is for typical conditions very very high EV but since you use 1-10 spread, and play game with good rules and OK penetration, that's why your EV is high.

Every time EV is this high I am kind of sceptical, and do not beleive my eyes, but I am 99% sure that this is correct.

Do you get any heat in casino you play, since you use liberal bet spread for double deck game?

Is it promotional double deck game?
 
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Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#7
Bigsooner....with most balanced systems, when you get a non-negative count, you kick your bet up one unit until you get to 5 units at which point, most systems would have you betting your maximum. But that is assuming a 1-5 spread. You might go more than one unit with a larger spread.
 
#8
No Heat and I was supprised not to recieve any. I simply bet 5$ on one hand and then when i good count came around I changed to two 50$ hands. I am not experienced enough to use strat changes to I played basic strat no matter what the count was. I also took a walk several times on negative decks. I guess I looked like I didnt know what I was doing or the Boss on that shift wasnt looking for counters
 

BJStanko

Well-Known Member
#9
As long as you stay at $5 min table you shouldn't get any heat. When you move up to $25 or $100 minimum "they" pay attention to everything. Game you play is excelent to hit with small size team, or solo, at $100 min. tables for some nice profit. In that case, game with that great EV wouldn't last for very long time.
 

BJStanko

Well-Known Member
#10
Warning!!!!!!!!!

Bigsooner said:
No Heat and I was supprised not to recieve any. I simply bet 5$ on one hand and then when i good count came around I changed to two 50$ hands. I am not experienced enough to use strat changes to I played basic strat no matter what the count was. I also took a walk several times on negative decks. I guess I looked like I didnt know what I was doing or the Boss on that shift wasnt looking for counters
Be careful with your betting strategy. EV that I gave you is calculated for optimal betting strategy (changing your bets according to count). this means that you would have to adjust your bets for ounts of +1 +2 +3 and so on.

The EV I calculated for you doesn't apply to your betting system!!
 
#11
2D betting scheme -

I didn't use software, just mental. How far off was I gang? zg

True-Count Betting
(Running Count / #Decks remaing = TC)

0 bet 5 or less
+1 bet 10
+2 bet 25
+3 bet 25+25
+4 bet 50+50

Safe BR = $6000 (risk-of-ruin = 15%)
 
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