- Thread starter Titan
- Start date

Specifically N0 is the number of rounds you need to play for your expected value to equal one standard deviation.

It is used as a measure of reaching the long run. Because your EV equals one standard deviation at N0 rounds played, we can say that you have approximately an 84% chance of being in the black at that point. Some prefer to use 4xN0 as their threshold, because at that point your EV equals 2 standard deviations and you have approximately a 99% 97.72% chance of being in the black.

As for why it's good for N0 to be low, it's because it means that you reach the long run more quickly.

It is used as a measure of reaching the long run. Because your EV equals one standard deviation at N0 rounds played, we can say that you have approximately an 84% chance of being in the black at that point. Some prefer to use 4xN0 as their threshold, because at that point your EV equals 2 standard deviations and you have approximately a 99% 97.72% chance of being in the black.

As for why it's good for N0 to be low, it's because it means that you reach the long run more quickly.

Last edited:

gronbog said:

Specifically N0 is the number of rounds you need to play for your expected value to equal one standard deviation.

It is used as a measure of reaching the long run. Because your EV equals one standard deviation at N0 rounds played, we can say that you have approximately an 84% chance of being in the black at that point. Some prefer to use 4xN0 as their threshold, because at that point your EV equals 2 standard deviations and you have approximately a 99% chance of being in the black.

As for why it's good for N0 to be low, it's because it means that you reach the long run more quickly.

It is used as a measure of reaching the long run. Because your EV equals one standard deviation at N0 rounds played, we can say that you have approximately an 84% chance of being in the black at that point. Some prefer to use 4xN0 as their threshold, because at that point your EV equals 2 standard deviations and you have approximately a 99% chance of being in the black.

As for why it's good for N0 to be low, it's because it means that you reach the long run more quickly.

This is a really bad way to think. What's done is done. The past has absolutely no effect whatsoever on the future, insofar as playing blackjack is concerned. Do you think the cards remember what happened to you?

Don

Dopple said:

I know we should not think that something is due or owed in the world of math but how else does one get back to their actual EV after a long run of bad variance?

Dopple said:

Yes, with enough play, your EV will once again approach what is expected after a run of bad variance. But it does not happen due to some offsetting run of good variance. It happens because the run of short term bad variance eventually becomes insignificant.

Consider someone who flips a fair coin 1,000 times and ends up flipping 600 heads and 400 tails. We all know that the expected number of each is 500. The EV is 50%. The actual result for tails is 40%. What is expected after this point is not that he will hit a run on tails (although that

What has happened here? He is still 100 tails short of expected, but his actual result has crept 5% closer to the expected 50% although there has been no "correction" whatsoever. The reason is that the 100 flip differential is now out of 2000 flips rather than out of 1000. It has become less significant.

And for those who still think that some sort of bias on tails is "due", consider the case where he goes on to flip another 1,000 times and gets 510 heads and 490 tails (i.e. betting on tails loses even more over this span). His overall result on tails is now (400 + 500 + 490) / 3000 = 46.33%. Despite continuing to lose on betting tails, his overall result has crept even closer to the expected 50%

The bottom line is that nothing is ever "due". We can only know what is expected.

DSchles said:

"Some prefer to use 4xN0 as their threshold, because at that point your EV equals 2 standard deviations and you have approximately a **99% chance **of being in the black."

Make it 97.72%.

Don

Make it 97.72%.

Don

Titan said:

Could either of you please explain what 4xN0 means in practical terms? as in does it mean you need to play more and more hands in a shorter amount of time or something like that? Or is it simply a point in time where once reached you'll most certainly be in profit? Those are what I'm taking from it correct me if i'm wrong