I've been thinking, there are a few casinos with mediocre rules in socal (chumash, san manuel, morongo, soboba). As I don't care at all if I were backed off at any one of these places because they are all so crappy, would it be a good idea to hit them really hard? For example, spreading 1-20 and blatantly sitting out all negative counts. In addition, it seems they are so busy a lot of the times that they might not even care about this.
what if i wanted to hit a casino really hard
- Thread starter arrando
- Start date
You could do that if you want. You might even earn a few hundred dollars in theoretical EV before you blow your cover everywhere (not that you are likely to actually win that EV with those crappy games). But it would be a shame if you found a great game there later and weren't able to play it. How frustrated would you be if you noticed an amazing game out of the corner of your eye as you are being lead out the door? Or if you tried to play a promotion next month but got tossed before you made your first bet? Or learned a new technique (or game) that is very vulnerable at one of those casinos? My advice would be to not burn yourself out counting crappy games.
"Work smarter, not harder." - Scrooge McDuck
-Sonny-
"Work smarter, not harder." - Scrooge McDuck
-Sonny-
Ha at San Manuel? I don't think so. That place is too smoky, too crowded and they are very stingy with promotions not to mention the consistent mediocre game. I'd be ok without ever going there again. But don't you think that going all out like that on a h17 ds ls game with 66% pen (not the complete worst rules) would be some pretty good ev?
arrando,
What you are failing to understand is that if you spread 100-1, or whatever,
one of two things is likely to occur … you will be "ground down" by the H.A.
while waiting for (major) advantageous situations, which, in poor games, will
occur perhaps 10% of the time, before the cut card appears, due to bad penetration.
If, purely by chance, you get some BIG counts where you actually have a
2%+ advantage, you will still likely go broke, only more quickly than you think.
You seem to imagine that you are a favorite to win your upcoming hand(s)
simply because you have a nice big True Count. That is 100% false.
The only way BJ is going to be beaten by a Card Counter is by coming close
to an Optimal Bet Spread, computer generated. This takes a very good game,
and preferably, a strong count like Hi-Opt II or ZEN.
For you to make the statements that you have demonstrates that your BJ knowledge is shallow. Now go study and develop a little humility — before you throw away whatever cash you can get your hands on.
What you are failing to understand is that if you spread 100-1, or whatever,
one of two things is likely to occur … you will be "ground down" by the H.A.
while waiting for (major) advantageous situations, which, in poor games, will
occur perhaps 10% of the time, before the cut card appears, due to bad penetration.
If, purely by chance, you get some BIG counts where you actually have a
2%+ advantage, you will still likely go broke, only more quickly than you think.
You seem to imagine that you are a favorite to win your upcoming hand(s)
simply because you have a nice big True Count. That is 100% false.
The only way BJ is going to be beaten by a Card Counter is by coming close
to an Optimal Bet Spread, computer generated. This takes a very good game,
and preferably, a strong count like Hi-Opt II or ZEN.
For you to make the statements that you have demonstrates that your BJ knowledge is shallow. Now go study and develop a little humility — before you throw away whatever cash you can get your hands on.
Flash, I don't see how the statements I have been making suggest lack of knowledge. For one thing I said spread 5-100. That is a 1-20 spread in a game with a house edge of 0.54 and roughly 2 decks cut off of 6. If I avoid all negative counts, that effectively means, since I use ko, i would bet 0 at all running counts less than -4, and start ramping up my bets at -4 optimally until max bet, which is 100, which occurs at 4. My bankroll is $10,000 and is thus supported with this 100 max bet. very low chance of going broke here...
You are planning to hit a casino hard that offers a poor game...in your opinion the penetration is not bad, however in reality it is nearing awful. scout a better game and play that. IMO you will not be able to hit a casino hard that offers those rules and pen. with your BR.
I must add...your spread is good, and sitting out negative counts will only be +EV however, like Flash said, it will not be worth your time to make a good deal of $
I must add...your spread is good, and sitting out negative counts will only be +EV however, like Flash said, it will not be worth your time to make a good deal of $
This is bull, Flash! Granted, very mediocre rules (HA .54) and horrible penetration, but a 20-1 spread, and "blatantly sitting out all negative hands", as the poster said, in original post will more than break even, even with a level one count that you find so weak, flash. I know this without even running a sim, because several years ago, several of us simmed a 6 deck game that the player, an older gent that I met on the train, was spreading 2-1 and exiting all negative counts and he, much to my astonishment was playing a slightly winning game of between .25 and .5 unit per hour depending on the sim. Granted that is not much, especially when talking about a $5 unit, but it is a winning game and that with a 2-1 spread. I am sure 20-1, even with lousy penetration will do better than that. 
It really does not take much more than just sitting out all negative hands to turn most games even. Of course an even game doesn't do much for me.
It really does not take much more than just sitting out all negative hands to turn most games even. Of course an even game doesn't do much for me.
kewljason said:
this is bull, flash! Granted, very mediocre rules (ha .54) and horrible penetration, but a 20-1 spread, and "blatantly sitting out all negative hands", as the poster said, in original post will more than break even, even with a level one count that you find so weak, flash. I know this without even running a sim, because several years ago, several of us simmed a 6 deck game that the player, an older gent that i met on the train, was spreading 2-1 and exiting all negative counts and he, much to my astonishment was playing a slightly winning game of between .25 and .5 unit per hour depending on the sim. Granted that is not much, especially when talking about a $5 unit, but it is a winning game and that with a 2-1 spread. I am sure 20-1, even with lousy penetration will do better than that.
It really does not take much more than just sitting out all negative hands to turn most games even. Of course an even game doesn't do much for me.
It really does not take much more than just sitting out all negative hands to turn most games even. Of course an even game doesn't do much for me.
If you think that you can "sit-out" all negative counts you are sadly mistaken.
You WILL be 86'd, even betting as low as you suggest; it will just take longer to happen.
Furthermore, at a True Count of +1, (where you are still playing), you are at a disadvantage.
It is important to accept the unpleasant reality that a sub-marginal game is not playable.
I am a veteran player, so this thread is a deja vu experience; having to take abuse from dudes
barely old enough to enter a casino, who imagine that they are going to heroically punish a
greedy Native American casino for offering the public a piss-poor game.
You WILL be 86'd, even betting as low as you suggest; it will just take longer to happen.
Furthermore, at a True Count of +1, (where you are still playing), you are at a disadvantage.
It is important to accept the unpleasant reality that a sub-marginal game is not playable.
I am a veteran player, so this thread is a deja vu experience; having to take abuse from dudes
barely old enough to enter a casino, who imagine that they are going to heroically punish a
greedy Native American casino for offering the public a piss-poor game.
yes, flash, this is the point. I'm not worried about getting banned or anything like that because I would not care about going to this casino again because of the atmosphere there. And, lol, im not trying to heroically take down the casino for offering a bad game, just experimenting here...
also with an ha of 0.54, it is still advantageous, on average, to raise bets at -4 with ko since the true count here (3 decks remaining) is 1.33.
In addition, there is a better game further away with the same rules but pen is around 80%. Is this game worth playing consistently or no?
also with an ha of 0.54, it is still advantageous, on average, to raise bets at -4 with ko since the true count here (3 decks remaining) is 1.33.
In addition, there is a better game further away with the same rules but pen is around 80%. Is this game worth playing consistently or no?
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Ok, I don't know if its just me, but I'm having a little hard time understanding why I might lose money here or make a tiny profit before getting the tap on the shoulder. I know that using hi-lo with sitting out all negatives and spreading 0:1:2:4:8 (this is according to snyder's beat the 6 deck game) will result in a 1.21% (1.13 units per hour) advantage. Spreading to 20, my guess is that this is a greater advantage. Since double the money is put on the table, I'm thinking this should be close to 2 units per hour Now, I am using ko but the results should be similar. Do you consitute that as a tiny profit?
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Like I said, there are many reasons that you may change your opinion of those casinos in the future. Hit them hard if you want, but don't burn yourself out. I guarantee that you will regret it if you continue down the AP road.
And, as Flash pointed out, the variance on that style of play is huge so the probability of actually achieving your EV in such a short time is very small. Admittedly it is also possible to earn more than your EV due to pure chance, but there is about an even money chance that you will lose or show a tiny profit for all your troubles. Check your N0 and your probability of reaching different goals to get a better picture of what to expect from this before you commit.
-Sonny-
And, as Flash pointed out, the variance on that style of play is huge so the probability of actually achieving your EV in such a short time is very small. Admittedly it is also possible to earn more than your EV due to pure chance, but there is about an even money chance that you will lose or show a tiny profit for all your troubles. Check your N0 and your probability of reaching different goals to get a better picture of what to expect from this before you commit.
-Sonny-