bjcardcounter said:
What do you think the ratio of ploppies against APs . 1000:1 ?
professional APs?
I'd say 100000:1
1000:1 sounds right, but 99% of "APs" are wannabes, or are spreading nickels recreationally and pose no threat.
I know a guy who thinks he's a counter, but has the following problems:
- No bankroll, he doesn't bet very big and even then is overbetting what he has
- Loses the count
- I only watched him play for a short while, but corrected him twice on basic strategy plays (both on how to handle soft 18 -- typical ploppy misplays). Now I don't even play blackjack much and I know BS cold.
I've seen hole carders who are sloppy and make errors as well in games with very little tolerance for mistake.
If you play every weekend for years and never get backed off / barred, chances are you're not a real AP. If you're doing it for fun and betting small, nobody cares. If you're a real AP you will have a win rate that poses a threat, and you will be playing often enough where you WILL run into someone who will back you off. Every real AP I've spoken to (and where I've witnessed their play and determined they are a profitable player) has been backed off/barred numerous times.
I only been playing for a few months and I been backed off a couple times already. Once was because of my own stupidity, the other was because of betting/winning at a level that made them sweat (and intending to play the entire shift), and they got really hostile about it.
I would use the following criteria to say whether or not someone is a "real AP":
- Bankrolled well enough to have a ROR < 5%
- Does not play negative expectation games, regardless of reason or BS excuse
- Has a win rate high enough where they will not be tolerated by any casino once their play is made (Does not mean they need to win enough to cause attention at some of the higher end places. By this I mean they'll get tossed out / backed off if the pit already knows what they're doing.). This also covers all other aspects such as discipline. If you're not disciplined then your win rate will be negative.
For a recreational AP:
- Does not play, or plays a VERY limited amount of negative expectation games
- All their play combined against the house has a net positive expectation