What is the EV of this game?

[shadroch]

Six decks
H17
DA2
DAS
Mediocre pen.

But- you have a coupon thats pays you double for a BJ. Not 2-1, but double,so its 2 1/2 to 1.

If you play only until you hit the Bj and cash in the coupon, are you playing with an advantage?

 

[Sucker]

If the coupon pays double for a blackjack, then that means it pays 3 to 1. And yes, every hand that a basic strategy player plays will be played at about a 7% advantage, UNTIL he hits the BJ; at which point it will immediately revert back to the inherent house edge. It does not matter how long it takes to get the blackjack - whether it takes one hand or hundreds of hands, or even if you NEVER hit it; it's the threat of a blackjack payoff of 3:1 that gives you the edge.

 

[NightStalker]

Ev

Six decks
H17
DA2
DAS
Mediocre pen.

But- you have a coupon thats pays you double for a BJ. Not 2-1, but double,so its 2 1/2 to 1.

If you play only until you hit the Bj and cash in the coupon, are you playing with an advantage?

21hands=1.5-HE*21
per hand ~1.5-21*0.0065 =1.36/21 = 6.5% advantage

 

[shadroch]

21hands=1.5-HE*21
per hand ~1.5-21*0.0065 =1.36/21 = 6.5% advantage

but you don't know when the BJ will come, so why assume 21 hands. It could take one hand, it could take 100.

 

[Southpaw]

If BJ normally pays 1.5:1, then how is double that only 2.5:1? It should be 3:1, right?

Regardless, you have a huge advantage whether it pays 2.5:1 or 3:1, just playing BS. 2:1 would even give you the advantage, according to Blackwood's book.

While BJ's only show about 1 in 21 hands, the first one will more likely than not have show before the 21st hand. An event that only has a 1 in 10 chance of happening will more likely than not have occurred by or on the 7th trial.

You don't know when it's coming, but in theory, it will come soon enough to give you a healthy advantage over the house. If it comes sooner than expected, then you're projected to make more, since you've had less money exposed to the HE, but if you have to sit there for hours before it comes, then you're projected to make less, if anything at all, since you've had more money exposed to the HE.

SP

 

[Jack_Black]

if you can use this coupon only once, I don't know if I would do it. sure you get a healthy 6-7% advantage, but it's only good one time. and if you mean crap pen as in 2 deck cutoff, it's gonna take you awhile to realize your EV for that game without the coupon.

Right now, I'm hitting a game with a 3% off the top advantage, and after 6 hours of playtime, i've made about $60.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Right now, I'm hitting a game with a 3% off the top advantage, and after 6 hours of playtime, i've made about $60.

Unless your actual EV is $10/hr, who cares? Your results after 6 hours are not what you should be judging your 3% game by. If you have a 7% game, it's absolutely worth playing for as much as you can afford until the 3:1 payoff hits. The only downside would be opportunity cost (eg. the game is a 45-minute drive away and you have other games to be playing nearby).

 

[NightStalker]

that's

but you don't know when the BJ will come, so why assume 21 hands. It could take one hand, it could take 100.

why we call it EV, not the money won..

 

[Jack_Black]

Unless your actual EV is $10/hr, who cares? Your results after 6 hours are not what you should be judging your 3% game by.

I'm giving an example of real results vs. simulated expectation for a weekly 4 hour promo vs. a one time, one shot promo.

If you have a 7% game, it's absolutely worth playing for as much as you can afford until the 3:1 payoff hits.

not if it is a one time only coupon. I remember there was a posting somewhere about how if a whale asks if you want to buy his double down of say 10v6, but his bet was $5000 and the max bet for you BR was $500, you should buy his DD as close to $5000 as you could. the reasoning was that the advantage you have for this scavenger play was somewhere in the neighborhood of 25%, IIRC. A huge advantage, and yet it was nowhere near a guaranteed win. I would have not taken that bet unless I had a great rapport with the whale and he would let me buy a few more of his DDs and splits later on.

 

[Sucker]

If you have a 7% game, it's absolutely worth playing for as much as you can afford until the 3:1 payoff hits.

(The actual figure is 6.5%, as NightStalker has so painstakingly and accurately pointed out).

not if it is a one time only coupon.

If person has this coupon in his possession, and he bets $100; the EV of THAT hand is $106.50 whether or NOT he gets a blackjack. If he does not get a blackjack, his next hand is ALSO worth $106.50. It doesn't matter if he NEVER gets a blackjack for the rest of his LIFE - EVERY subsequent hand he plays is worth $106.50. Even when he finally DOES get the BJ; the hand that he gets it on is worth exactly $106.50, and NOT the $300 that the dealer will pay him. The instant he GETS a blackjack - if he chooses to continue playing; all hands thereafter are worth $99.50.

This is the correct way for a professional gambler to look at it, and it's the ONLY correct way to look at it. J_B - I'm very sorry to have to be so blunt to you; but until you come to understand this mindset, you will always have a MAJOR leak in your gambling talents. And don't get me wrong, the opinions you have given in the past have shown me that you ARE a very talented person.

 

[bj21abc]

There was a recent article about this (or was it recently quoted ?..) - the illusion of reducing risk by playing many small low-EV plays as opposed to a few large high-EV plays.

If you believe in proportional (Kelly) betting and size your bets accordingly, then you should do so regardless of whether the EV is 1%, 10% or 50%. If you play at 1/2 Kelly and you get offered a double down which has a 25% EV, you should be prepared to bet up to 12.5% of your BR (divided by variance... which should be smaller than the regular 1.2 if you're on a double down only).

BTW, I don't really understand the concept of a "max bet for your BR" - the top bet of your betting ramp is usually limited by playing conditions, max spread, etc. If I had a bet with 100% EV I know what my max bet would be

Although strictly speaking - playing half Kelly,in theory if I had a 99.9% EV play then I should only really bet 50% of BR on it.... interesting point...

not if it is a one time only coupon. I remember there was a posting somewhere about how if a whale asks if you want to buy his double down of say 10v6, but his bet was $5000 and the max bet for you BR was $500, you should buy his DD as close to $5000 as you could. the reasoning was that the advantage you have for this scavenger play was somewhere in the neighborhood of 25%, IIRC. A huge advantage, and yet it was nowhere near a guaranteed win. I would have not taken that bet unless I had a great rapport with the whale and he would let me buy a few more of his DDs and splits later on.

 

[Homeschool]

But- you have a coupon thats pays you double for a BJ. Not 2-1, but double,so its 2 1/2 to 1.

Double on a 6:5 game would be 12/5 (2 2/5:1) :grin:


Homeschool

 

[Billy C1]

Six decks
H17
DA2
DAS
Mediocre pen.

But- you have a coupon thats pays you double for a BJ. Not 2-1, but double,so its 2 1/2 to 1.

If you play only until you hit the Bj and cash in the coupon, are you playing with an advantage?

What am I missing here? 2 to 1 has always been "double" to me.

BillyC1

 

[Jack_Black]

(The actual figure is 6.5%, as NightStalker has so painstakingly and accurately pointed out).



If person has this coupon in his possession, and he bets $100; the EV of THAT hand is $106.50 whether or NOT he gets a blackjack. If he does not get a blackjack, his next hand is ALSO worth $106.50. It doesn't matter if he NEVER gets a blackjack for the rest of his LIFE - EVERY subsequent hand he plays is worth $106.50. Even when he finally DOES get the BJ; the hand that he gets it on is worth exactly $106.50, and NOT the $300 that the dealer will pay him. The instant he GETS a blackjack - if he chooses to continue playing; all hands thereafter are worth $99.50.

This is the correct way for a professional gambler to look at it, and it's the ONLY correct way to look at it. J_B - I'm very sorry to have to be so blunt to you; but until you come to understand this mindset, you will always have a MAJOR leak in your gambling talents. And don't get me wrong, the opinions you have given in the past have shown me that you ARE a very talented person.

I understand what the EV of the promo is. what I don't understand is why an AP would want to increase their max bet unit size for a temporary increase in advantage. What is the probability of actually increasing your BR from this very temporary increase in advantage? and it's not even a huge increase in advantage. Not like the scavenger play I cited. Now if this place kept sending me this 3:1 coupon fairly frequently, I would do it. but a one time deal?

No offense taken Sucker, I'm still a newbie. I've only been playing for 2.5 years, and I still have a lot to learn. I learn a lot from reading your posts.

 

[Jack_Black]

There was a recent article about this (or was it recently quoted ?..) - the illusion of reducing risk by playing many small low-EV plays as opposed to a few large high-EV plays.

If you believe in proportional (Kelly) betting and size your bets accordingly, then you should do so regardless of whether the EV is 1%, 10% or 50%. If you play at 1/2 Kelly and you get offered a double down which has a 25% EV, you should be prepared to bet up to 12.5% of your BR (divided by variance... which should be smaller than the regular 1.2 if you're on a double down only).

BTW, I don't really understand the concept of a "max bet for your BR" - the top bet of your betting ramp is usually limited by playing conditions, max spread, etc. If I had a bet with 100% EV I know what my max bet would be

Although strictly speaking - playing half Kelly,in theory if I had a 99.9% EV play then I should only really bet 50% of BR on it.... interesting point...

Like I said before, if I actually get more than a one time opportunity from the whale to buy his DD, then I'll play it at 12.5% of my BR.

"max bet for you BR" is what you think it means. if you choose to use game conditions, ROR, kelly fraction, spread, whatever. whatever unit size you use to determine your frequently used top bet.

 

[bj21abc]

So what exactly is the logic behind this ?

If according to your bet ramping, a play justifies say 12.5% of your BR - you would refuse to play this once only, but agree to play it say, 5 times ? If so, that simply means you are leaving money on the table, on plays which are in line with your risk appetite. From a math point only, any play which is correct for your BR (EV, variance, your kelly sizing) is correct to make regardless of how many (or how few) times it occurs.

As for "max bet for your BR" - a top bet is indeed determined by a lot of factors, hence I cannot see the relevance of any top bet which you have used or will use either frequently or infrequently to any other (independent) bet sizing decision. In a sawdust joint your top bet may be $100, in the Bellagio $400, in an ESA game with no heat $600 - these should have no bearing whatsoever on your decision (kelly calculation) on a one-off opportunity to buy a double down from a philanthropic whale.

Take it to the extreme - if the EV was 95% - and yes, it's a one-off play - would you still only bet your regular max bet ??

I recently had a max bet out, with a back bettor of 150% of my max bet. 10 vs 9 up. He refused to double down (in this place the back bettor has to double down) so I bought his double down. I guesstimated (fortunately correctly) that the EV of DD on 10 vs 9 was high enough to justify "doubling down for more".

Like I said before, if I actually get more than a one time opportunity from the whale to buy his DD, then I'll play it at 12.5% of my BR.

"max bet for you BR" is what you think it means. if you choose to use game conditions, ROR, kelly fraction, spread, whatever. whatever unit size you use to determine your frequently used top bet.

 

[Jack_Black]

So what exactly is the logic behind this ?

If according to your bet ramping, a play justifies say 12.5% of your BR - you would refuse to play this once only, but agree to play it say, 5 times ? If so, that simply means you are leaving money on the table, on plays which are in line with your risk appetite. From a math point only, any play which is correct for your BR (EV, variance, your kelly sizing) is correct to make regardless of how many (or how few) times it occurs.

As for "max bet for your BR" - a top bet is indeed determined by a lot of factors, hence I cannot see the relevance of any top bet which you have used or will use either frequently or infrequently to any other (independent) bet sizing decision. In a sawdust joint your top bet may be $100, in the Bellagio $400, in an ESA game with no heat $600 - these should have no bearing whatsoever on your decision (kelly calculation) on a one-off opportunity to buy a double down from a philanthropic whale.

Take it to the extreme - if the EV was 95% - and yes, it's a one-off play - would you still only bet your regular max bet ??

I recently had a max bet out, with a back bettor of 150% of my max bet. 10 vs 9 up. He refused to double down (in this place the back bettor has to double down) so I bought his double down. I guesstimated (fortunately correctly) that the EV of DD on 10 vs 9 was high enough to justify "doubling down for more".

I have never been offered a DD buy from a whale, and I don't even frequent stores that have $5k limits. I've never sat down next to a player that was betting bigger than I, or betting bigger than my BR could handle. So if I was ever put in that situation, I would have to feel confident that the whale would allow me to buy a few of his DDs so that I could have a higher probability of winning the EV for that play. That's my game plan and I'm gonna stick with it. If I see that the dealer flashed me an Ace at some point, and I knew about when or exactly when I would get that ace, then I bet bigger because I know this dealer's weakness, and if I don't get it this time, I will get it the next time she gets sloppy.

I use .4 kelly to determine my BR top bet. of course it changes with what kinda game I'm playing, wonging, etc. but I would never use casino limits or tolerances to dictate what my top bet would be. If I knew a joint was going to be sweaty after $100, then I know that it is only .1 kelly for my BR, and I don't sweat it.

 

[zengrifter]

if you can use this coupon only once, I don't know if I would do it. sure you get a healthy 6-7% advantage, but it's only good one time. and if you mean crap pen as in 2 deck cutoff, it's gonna take you awhile to realize your EV for that game without the coupon.

Its a great coupon, like the old LVA 3-1 BJ. He will have 6%+ UNTIL the BJ. zg