What percentage of counters are any good?

[Automatic Monkey]

Wow did I meet a bad one this week. Trying to beat an 8D game with a 1:4 spread and not using any advanced plays. I even saw him blow a BS play and fail to get an insurance bet down on a count equivalent to a High-Low +10 !

That's right, +10. The dealer had the BJ too. The other counter and I were both shaking our heads in amazement at how high the count went. Oh man I was spreading like a drunk church girl at Bible camp. Didn't have much luck on that shoe, but I got the cut card off him and was able to cut a few cards back into play, count went up to an equivalent +7 for the next shoe and I scored big. This guy lost all his money, I'm whispering the plays to him but he wouldn't listen. I finished the night up 40 units.

So what percentage of the counters have you seen are playing a viable game? From what I've seen, it can't be more than half. The problem is usually not getting down the big bets when called for.

 

[Big Cowboy]

Are you sure?

How can you be sure he was a counter if he was blowing plays left and right and BS plays too? Sounds like a drunk ploppy to me.

 

[Sun runner]

Come again.

You're playing with 'another counter' at the table? Did you guys look like the June Taylor dancers?

And you were whispering the plays to this moron?

Geeez.

 

[Victoria]

learning to count

Learning to count is kind of like making your high school varsity team.
Did you have the proper preperation (basic strategy and counting basics) to advance as a starter?
Will you spread enough, learn enough indices to advance to play in college?
Will you refine everything to near perfection including an act that can play at high bet levels and advance enough to be able to turn pro?

I think you just a bench warmer on the high school team. There are alot more high school players than college and even fewer at pro, kind of a negative progression.

Victoria

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Safe place

This was a place where you couldn't get busted for AP if you tried, not at my betting level, so I wasn't too worried. Besides, I don't walk away from a good count no matter who or what is at the table. Being I Wong out I'm never at a table for more that a couple of shoes anyway. And no one at the table including the dealer understood any English at all so we could speak openly, as long as we didn't speak in Vietnamese. Welcome to the East Coast!

 

[Sun runner]

I'm sorry.

What?

 

[Victoria]

typing too fast

Sunrunner

In typing my message I left out three key words that may have well changed the meaning.

I did not mean that you or automatic monkey were the so called "bench warmer"
I had meant to say that you (AM) had just run into a bench warmer. But by leaving out those few words I screwed it all up.

Sorry

Victoria

 

[Sun runner]

Re: I'm sorry

No apology needed ..

I did quit warming the bench some time ago, but I'm a long way from playing on Sundays! Although, I am going to try and knock off a little positive EV later today.

 

[jblaze]

re: aut. mon.

wasnt it you who told me i couldnt flat bet black wonging in and out for more than 20 mins at fwoods?

 

[stainless steel rat]

wannabes

The world is full of 'em. I know "computer professionals" trained at some fly-by-night training center that think they are now "programmers" or "systems analysts". In reality they are not capable of getting thru the first CS programming course at major universities.

I have seen this in other fields as well. "Learn electronics in only 60 days and set up your own highly profitable TV repair center." Etc.

Card counting is no different. You become a real counter when you finally realize that (a) you don't win more hands/sessions than you lose; (b) you will have horrible losing streaks; (c) you will get your clock cleaned on +10 true counts; (d) you will get three snappers in a row in negative counts and it is not something to moan about; (e) you will see multiple consecutive shuffles where the TC tanks and stays tanked until the next shuffle. When I see a counter claiming to win 9 of every 10 sessions, I suspect "he has won 9 of the only 10 sessions he has played, and he is way out on the right side of the mean... (f) new counters think they are invincible, experienced counters know their advantage is very fragile.

You really become a good counter when you start to question whether such a thing as a good counter exists, and suddenly you notice "hey, bad stuff is happening, but I am still winning overall."

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Wasn't me

You can do pretty much whatever you want at Foxwoods. Although, I'm no expert on playing black, maybe they do turn on some heat at that level. Probably the best way to play black on those games is to bet behind someone else. Splits on backline bets are optional. Example: I've got my $15 down, you come up and bet $300 behind me on a good count. We get 8,8, dealer has 9. I split, put down another $15, you can either put down another $300 (which of course you won't) or pick one of the 8's to put your existing $300 behind.

 

[Pet's-Pet]

Do you (or anybody) know by how much those backbetting privileges would affect the HE for the BS player?

 

[jblaze]

re

you want to play the hand correctly. letting an idiot decide your playing strategy isnt compensated by the fact that you can chose not to split if he does. if the counts up and he hits an 8 against a 10 getting an 8 and he's playing BS then he is costing you EV when he hits again. why on earth would I play behind someone when seats are available? and why would I play black behind someone betting $25, looks a little strange. and if i were betting $300 with 88 vs 9 I would most likely be surrendering since that bet is above the play index.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I recall...

... that it decreases the house edge by 0.20-0.25% in a DAS game. It also reduces the standard deviation because the BP is putting less money on the table. So it's a pretty powerful thing. But it's not fair to call it Basic Strategy, because you need additional plays that differentiate between an offensive and defensive split.

 

[Andy Noone]

backbetting privileges

When the dealer's up card is 2, the trick would work for 2's, 3's, 6's, and 7's. Here are the other dealer up cards and pairs for which the backbettor would put the bet on one card: 3 (2,3,6,7); 4 (6); 7 (2,3,6,7); 8 (2,3,6,7,8); 9 (2,3,6,7,8,9); 10 (2,3,6,7,8,9); and Ace (2,3,6,7,8,9). If the regular player made all these splits, I estimate the backbettor's house edge would drop by .00196 (that is, from about 0.5% to about 0.3%.) But, when the regular player only makes those splits which are basic strategy, I get a drop in backbettor's HE of .00086.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

You really want to do this behind another counter

If you can find a perfect BS player it's not so bad, but the split plays don't come up often enough to be able to tell if a player knows them all by watching. I think there are also a few splits in there that are not part of BS that are desirable if the backline better doesn't have to split. And you have to make it look like you're disagreeing with the seated player. So you really want someone who knows what is up to do this with.

Here's a way you can make it work with a 3 player team. One player can be completely unskilled, a pretty girl would work best. Make her up a Basic Strategy card, but instead of the normal plays give her one with the rider-spilt-optional plays at or above the count at which the BP is coming to the table. She's flat betting and so is the caller who is also at the table. When the BP gets called in, he wants to impress this ostentatiously sexy chick so he drops a pumpkin behind her like it was loose change. "Do you feel lucky sweetie? Here, let me feel you to make sure, heh, heh, heh..." Wear enough gold and this will play on a Saturday night at the 'Woods.

 

[Anon]

Try to find someone with fat shoes who seems to move his toes a lot.

 

[Pet's-Pet]

Interesting idea, Thanks.

 

[stainless steel rat]

this would

scare me.

I played at a midwest casino a year or two ago. Shoe game, crowded, probably should have just bailed out. Was in town for a quick business trip, will probably not go back there for years. As a result, I was spreading pretty wildly, with no one really noticing. Then someone reaches over my shoulder (in a fairly decent + count where I had $100 out (this was a five buck table, I was spreading 1-20) and he plunks down 10 blacks. I had not seen this before. I looked quizically at the dealer, he shrugged and said "he can do that if you do not object." I said "OK" and we won on a double-down 11 vs 10. Couple of hands later it happens again. Couple of hands later a third time. Couple of hands later I got "the tap" and as I was escourted out, I was told "we don't appreciate team play here, we saw your big player betting from behind you and we won't tolerate that."

Problem was, I had never seen this guy before in my life.

So there is a bit of danger in someone "back-betting" with you, because if you think about it, it is the ideal team play when things are crowded.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The problem there was...

...he wasn't "your" BP. You weren't getting a share of his profits but he was ruining your good time, because they were willing to tolerate your action but not his.

Now if you really were a team, you'd be playing crazy at low stakes so you'd be ID'ed as a ploppy, then when the BP comes in you just happen to make the right high-count plays. A girl in that position would work best because the BP would have a reason why it appears he's betting behind her other than that he wants to get a piece of her really nice... count!