I want to know what people think about the following situation. I was with a friend at my local casino, and she wanted to play some games for fun, so I helped her out a bit playing BJ. I came across a situation during a shoe where for 3 whole rounds of play, 5 spots, ZERO face cards came out. I'm talking zilch. So the question I put forward is, if you haven't been counting a shoe, but you see 3 rounds ending with a sudden RC of > +50, would you be inclined to bet on that information alone? Or would you be hesitant given that this was toward the end of the shoe and for all you knew, the RC previous to those rounds might have easily been highly negative, and it was merely evening out slightly/still potentially negative? Of course, not knowing the TC would be a big factor in deciding not to play. Anyways, my advice to my friend was to give that table a try, and yes, until the end of the shoe, BJs/20s/19s came out, and the dealer busted numerous times.
What to do? High RC in a previously uncounted shoe.
- Thread starter Koz1984
- Start date
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
How many decks in play and how many had been dealt? The answer would be "yes" in almost all circumstances. Consider: if this was an 8D game, you still have a TC of 6 if you didn't observe the previous rounds. That's enough to warrant a max bet in all but the most atrocious games. So my answer would be to put out that bet and just mentally add all previously played cards to the ones behind the cut card. So if it's an 8D game and 3 rounds were dealt before you arrived, you're playing an 8D game with 4.5-5 decks cut off. Still, a 50+ RC is more than enough.
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
Ok, so it's not the best scenario, but your assumed TC is still 6, which is the point at which you'd likely be putting out a max bet given these rules and pen.
So if you know that you've seen about a deck of play, and you have a RC of +50, you have 7 decks which you haven't seen. That RC of +50 is estimated to be spread throughout those 7 unseen decks, which like others said, is a TC of +6.
So no matter what, you know that the +50 high cards are distributed over the 7 decks you haven't seen, which gives about 6 high cards per unseen deck, or a TC of +6.
That TC of +6 is the almost the same thing whether it's in the middle, beginning, or end of the shoe. It's no different from you playing the first 3 rounds of a shoe, and have a TC of +6.
You might not get many hands in at that TC before the shuffle, but your advantage is still your advantage.
So no matter what, you know that the +50 high cards are distributed over the 7 decks you haven't seen, which gives about 6 high cards per unseen deck, or a TC of +6.
That TC of +6 is the almost the same thing whether it's in the middle, beginning, or end of the shoe. It's no different from you playing the first 3 rounds of a shoe, and have a TC of +6.
You might not get many hands in at that TC before the shuffle, but your advantage is still your advantage.
The Chaperone
Well-Known Member
I call bullshit on the running count of +50 in 3 rounds assuming a 1 or even a 2 level count.
Southpaw
Well-Known Member
I do too. I have been counting down an 8-deck shoe multiple times per day for months now (using a level 2 system) and I could on one hand how many times the RC became greater in magnitude than 50. Moreover, when this does occur, it happens at the 3-5 decks out level. The only way I could see this happen is if the deck was extremely negative at like the 4 deck level (like -60 for level 2) and our friend Koz was witnessing the aftermath. Otherwise, that is one hell of a slug.The Chaperone said:
SP
Edit: If you're using a level one system, I straight up do not buy it.
Doesn't matter. When you convert from RC to TC, you always divide by the number of decks you haven't seen yet. Whether they have been played, or are behind the cut card, or whatever.Koz1984 said:
So you saw a RC of +50 in 1 deck, hence 7 unseen decks. Unseen, not unplayed.