What would you do?

[variancewillhit]

I hate to use money figures, but here goes.

I started playing BJ in AC a few months ago. My BR for the first trip was four figures. Let's no talk about it as being X. Over the course of the next few months I made about 7 trips to AC. Each one was winning.

I played BS, with the only thing being a progression with my betting. I played at 100-6000 tables, with most of the time my bet being 100-400ish. There were some times when I made large, foolish bets, and lost, as well as won, but I think I lost more of the big ones than won. I played perfect BS, although there were times when I made a few mistakes.

Now this last trip I made, I lost all of my profit. If my buyin was X, my profit was about 5x.

I had a feeling this trip wouldn't be good, but it started out with a good first night. Then the next night, it started off poorly. Then somehow about 8 hours later it was almsot all gone. By then it was 6 in the morning and I was real tired. Hadn't drank anything other than decaf black.

So here I am, just thinking about what went wrong... I knew that I wouldn't win every trip, and I probably should have set a limit for the trip. Having credit is both good and bad. It's good because I don't have to bring cash with me, but bad in the sense that I am not limited by the amount of cash that I have on me. I can keep getting more markers.

I don't think I want to count. I play primarily for entertainment. I keep records of each trip, and while I now have a profit of $0, I have done well with comps, and have had quite an enjoyable time.

What should I do here? Take a few weeks off, maybe go back but play lower limits? Any other words of advice?

 

[supercoolmancool]

If you want advise on how to make money then you need to play with an advantage to do that. Your progression will lose about .5% of whatever you wager. So I can't advise going back and playing like that other than just for fun.

 

[21forme]

If you're playing perfect BS, your EV is -0.5% (or -0.7% if you're playing at a H17 table.)

You got lucky. The longer you play, the closer to the expected value you get. you're almost there. You just need to lose a little more...

If you want to win you have to count. If you've been reading here for a while, you should know that.

 

[Kasi]

I hate to use money figures, but here goes.

I started playing BJ in AC a few months ago. My BR for the first trip was four figures. Let's no talk about it as being X. Over the course of the next few months I made about 7 trips to AC. Each one was winning.

I played BS, with the only thing being a progression with my betting. I played at 100-6000 tables, with most of the time my bet being 100-400ish. There were some times when I made large, foolish bets, and lost, as well as won, but I think I lost more of the big ones than won. I played perfect BS, although there were times when I made a few mistakes.

Now this last trip I made, I lost all of my profit. If my buyin was X, my profit was about 5x.

I had a feeling this trip wouldn't be good, but it started out with a good first night. Then the next night, it started off poorly. Then somehow about 8 hours later it was almsot all gone. By then it was 6 in the morning and I was real tired. Hadn't drank anything other than decaf black.

So here I am, just thinking about what went wrong... I knew that I wouldn't win every trip, and I probably should have set a limit for the trip. Having credit is both good and bad. It's good because I don't have to bring cash with me, but bad in the sense that I am not limited by the amount of cash that I have on me. I can keep getting more markers.

I don't think I want to count. I play primarily for entertainment. I keep records of each trip, and while I now have a profit of $0, I have done well with comps, and have had quite an enjoyable time.

What should I do here? Take a few weeks off, maybe go back but play lower limits? Any other words of advice?

Hard to say. Hard to say.

Best advice is stop playing but you know that.

Tough losing 5 times a 4-figure buy in. Little doubt you bet a little too big in those last 8 hours. I guess comps mean alot to you.

You called your large bets "foolish" - I don't know what they were in proportion to your bankroll. If you think they're foolish, ask yourself why you made them. To me it's a red flag of a borderline potential gambling problem. But, if you're seriously rich, what the heck. Who cares. Charles Barclay has blown $10MM and thinks nothing of it.

I watch players at $100 minimum tables and it always blows my mind when they make BS errors. I just figure they have alot of money to burn. Personally, my tolerance for BS errors is zero. Unless what u mean is u had the wrong total in your head or something. That can happen.

Perhaps figuring your average bet size and relating it to your bankroll and the associated risk of losing x units in y hands might help you.

I mean if, on a trip you're playing for 16 hours at average $200/hd, 60 hands an hour, that's an $825 EV loss for which u get a night's lodging and, maybe, some food? So if you're playing for entertainment maybe cheaper to buy a room and some food and have fun at less than $100/min tables.

If u want money, it can't happen playing BS if you play long enough. But, as you discovered, you can make money in the short-term! All it takes is to win a few "bigger" bets.

 

[Sonny]

Over the course of the next few months I made about 7 trips to AC. Each one was winning…Now this last trip I made, I lost all of my profit.

So here I am, just thinking about what went wrong.

Nothing went wrong. That is exactly what happens when you use progression systems. With a negative progression system (raising your bet after a loss) you will experience many small wins but a few huge losses. That is completely normal.

I don't think I want to count. I play primarily for entertainment…What should I do here? Take a few weeks off, maybe go back but play lower limits? Any other words of advice?

I would suggest that you play for lower stakes, either flat bet or use a slow progression system (if you must), play very slowly and try to get as many comps as you can (rooms, meals, drinks, etc.). Only play with money that you feel comfortable losing and don't get too crazy with your markers. You are going to lose money in the end, try to enjoy yourself while you do.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Sure. If you play Basic Strategy at a reasonably low level, at a place that is generous with comps and has comps you enjoy, you can play something close to a break-even game without counting. Play as slowly as you can, at a slow table, and take advantage of every coupon and special offer they send you. Advise staying away from progressions, as they encourage you to overbet and increase your stress level, which will detract from your enjoyment of the game.

Also, it costs you nothing to play with a Basic Strategy card in front of you, so why not? That way you will make no mistakes at all with it. Also be alert for dealer errors. You will average 1-2 dealer errors in your favor per night of play, and this can potentially make your game a break-even game without counting. Just make sure you correct the errors that are not in your favor!

 

[WumpieJr]

Good thing your luck didn't hit you in reverse order, and congratulations for still being ahead of the expected value!

There are a number of "simplified" counting systems you could use to narrow the EV gap, for instance the "front count" mentioned in Renzey's Blackjack Bluebook II. You count aces and tens only for the first two decks of a shoe while betting minimum to establish an estimate of your advantage and then either flat bet minimum, some multiple of minimum, or leave depending on the count after 2 decks. After that you don't count anymore. You don't have to modulate your bet once you establish it for a shoe or remember indices. I believe you even have a slightly positive EV. Why not learn that? There are also a number of "beyond basic strategy" actions you can take that are described in the book.

 

[EasyRhino]

Okay, sounds like you went in with >$1000 and <$10000? If you were looking for between .5 and a few hours of fun, I'd recommend $2000 flat-betting $1000 at a full table.

(To be honest, I'd recommend $100 buyin at a $5 table, but I extrapolated... I can't believe I just recommended $100 bets to anyone).

Out of curiosity, what kind of progression were you using? It doesn't really affect anything, I'm just curious.

Anyway, it sounds like you just made 7 trips to AC, raked in some comps, and broke even. That's pretty damn good. What to do next depends on on your goals, and what that initial bankroll amount means to you:

1) If that money could serve a better purpose in your life (retirement savings, braces for the kids... groceries), then don't go back to AC until you have some truly disposable income.

2) If it's truly disposable, and you just want to have fun, go back to AC. I recommend just flat betting a relatively small amount, and milking comps for all they're worth. Have you read Comp City? You should, it's great.

3) If you want to win, learn to count. I don't recommend the butt-easy counts, like OPP, front count, or speed count, the edge is microscopic and the bets necessary to bring it out are huge. Instead, you could try the "somewhat easy" tier of systems, KO, KISS, and Red 7. And the bad news if you start to count, a bankroll of $5000 is going to have a very high chance of evaporating even if your bet spread is $10 min to $100 max. (but hey, it might be fun).

 

[bluewhale]

Out of curiosity, what kind of progression were you using? It doesn't really affect anything, I'm just curious.

actually it does, the kind of progression you use GREATLY affects your variance. like sonny pointed out, probably used some kind of martingale derivative.

 

[variancewillhit]

Everyone raises some very good points.

First off, I'm single, and have no kids. During those 7 trips the only expenses I incurred were gas and tolls. I had all my rooms comped (some weekends in suites), everything else was paid for with comp dollars (food, etc).

I drank while playing once, and that happens to be day that I lost the bankroll. Now, I wasn't drunk or anything, but I did have a few drinks during that session.

I'm not saying that contributed to my bad session, other than maybe not realizing how much I was down and to continue to play (getting more markers, etc)...

My very first session there, I bought in for 500 and after maybe an hour or so was up to about 1,000. I tried the hi-lo counting system, although really, being the first time trying, I wasn't that great. I use a BS card for plays I'm not sure about, which are very few these days, sometimes i just want to double check...

Based on what I've read, it makes no difference whehter you play at a full table or just heads up with the dealer, but I enjoy playing heads up with the dealer more.

In terms of progression, I usually start out with the min bet, and sometimes depending on how I want to play I'll do a 1-2-1-5 system, starting over after each loss.

However most of the time I start out at the min, and if I see the shoe is going my way (getting cards I need, dealer busting), I'll move up 1 or 2 units. From there I may press up to 5 units, but not all at once, and sometimes I bring it back down to 1 or 2 units. It's all based on "feel" and what I'm comfortable with.

Sometimes I get shoe or two where I'm pulling cards left and right on my stiff hands. I don't go crazy with my bets, but I will press bets or raise what my "unit" is in this case.

I go to AC with the expectation of winning. Yes, I know that with perfect BS the house still has an edge of about 0.5% of the total wagered. The question is always, how long is the long run???

 

[variancewillhit]

actually it does, the kind of progression you use GREATLY affects your variance. like sonny pointed out, probably used some kind of martingale derivative.

Yes and no. While I was typing my last post this one was added to the thread, but typically I don't use a martingale type progression (although sometimes the 1-2-1-5 i mentioned before)...

I've found that if I play slow-and-steady and wait for a good shoe, I can make money. If I try too hard to make money, when the cards aren't good, that appears to be where I have lost most of the money in my various sessions, even during winning trips.

 

[WumpieJr]

Based on what I've read, it makes no difference whehter you play at a full table or just heads up with the dealer, but I enjoy playing heads up with the dealer more.

For a BS player it can actually make a difference. First, less players means faster hands, so the house advantage is multiplied faster.

Second, you can make some composition-dependent decisions if you can see more cards on a hand. For instance, if you have 16 vs. 10 and see that, in the 5 players' hands at the table, there are a bunch of 4s and 5s but no 10s, you should stand rather than hit (this is quantified, I'm giving a qualitative description). If all you see is your hand and the dealer's, you don't have as much information.

Third, you can chat it up at a full table. As a BS player, you might as well commiserate ^_^

 

[variancewillhit]

Update: So after about 4 winning trips and up about 260 units at my peak, I am now down a total of 160 units. I (and im sure many who read this thread) could see this happening. I'm going to take a break from the trips, and I think when I resume, it will be using AP, as it appears my run was just luck.

 

[ScottH]

Update: So after about 4 winning trips and up about 260 units at my peak, I am now down a total of 160 units. I (and im sure many who read this thread) could see this happening. I'm going to take a break from the trips, and I think when I resume, it will be using AP, as it appears my run was just luck.

Your name says it all... lol.

 

[NDN21]

I played perfect BS, although there were times when I made a few mistakes.

If you made a few mistakes then you didn't play perfect BS did you?

So here I am, just thinking about what went wrong...

Nothing went wrong. The math just caught up to you.

Now, I wasn't drunk or anything, but I did have a few drinks during that session.

You were probably buzzed up and that affected your thinking.

It's all based on "feel" and what I'm comfortable with.

You nor I do not have any sort of gambling instinct whatsoever. It is time to drop that type of thinking and get real.