What's Your Biggest Negative EV Descent Into The Abyss?

Finn Dog

Finn Dog

Well-Known Member
What's your biggest sustained negative variance--that you lived to talk about? (Please ignore the word "EV" in the headline as I can't remove it.)

How long was the duration of your negative variance? How sustained was your recovery?

Best regards,

FD
 
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I miscalculated a side bet where I thought I would have a 20% advantage. Turns out I was playing -7%. I got lucky and made 4k from it lol
 
Finn Dog said:
What's your biggest negative EV trip into the dark side :flame:--that you lived to talk about?

How long was the duration? How sustained was your recovery?

Best regards,

FD
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I think people may be confused by your wording, Finn Dog. I know I am. "Negative expected value trip"? Isn't that just gambling? Perhaps you meant biggest negative variance on a trip? :confused:
 
I had 13 consecutive losing sessions that lasted about 6 weeks and cost me over $5000. Since then I've won 7 of 8 sessions and gotten back about $1400.
 
kewljason said:
I think people may be confused by your wording, Finn Dog. I know I am. "Negative expected value trip"? Isn't that just gambling? Perhaps you meant biggest negative variance on a trip? :confused:
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Exactly (but not just for a trip--I meant a protracted negative variance and was using a "trip to the dark side" metaphor), sorry for the confusion...since there's no way to edit the headline now, I'll just change the main paragraph.

Doh!

Now you can clearly see why Homer is on the doghouse in my avatar (that's actually an artist's rendering of my dog and I).

By the way, great to see you back! I know you'll have a great example to share.

FD
 
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Finn Dog said:
By the way, great to see you back! I know you'll have a great example to share.
FD
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I am limiting my participation here to the topics that can actually improve my game and trying to stay away from the silly unproductive stuff, but thanx.

Your topic seemed interesting to me and one that many of us could find useful and learn from and when there where few replies, I could only assume that people where a bit confused, as I was, by the terminology.

As for my example, I shared it when it happened last summer but am happy to so again. Lost nearly 300 units during a 3 month period last summer, which represented roughly 25,000 hands. I know this is mild compared to other "war stories" but it represented my worst and longest down turn. (roughly 20% of my BR at the time) In october, all of the sudden things broke and I won back that amount in a little over a weeks time and went on to have the best year of my short career.

Going through such a period is certainly a lot different that reading about it, but hopefully will better prepare me for the future.
 
I had 5 weeks of losing sessions playing 2 days/week, beginning in Jan. I had my first winning session of the year last week. Last year, overall, I was more than 2 SDs above EV.
 
kewljason said:
...

Going through such a period is certainly a lot different that reading about it, but hopefully will better prepare me for the future.
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yes, like run a simulation and boom yer a millionaire. thing is maybe you don't see the roller coaster ride it took to get there. standard deviation takes on a whole new meaning in real life.:yikes:

my hats off to anyone who can bang out a living playing blackjack.

looking through my records real quick it looks as if a 160 unit free fall was my largest one day loss.

what ever, for me being a recreational bj player i find it a luxury to be able to structure my play so as to have pretty much a fair sized string of small wins which are unfortunately offset by an every so often more than fair sized loss.:rolleyes:

on another note, last night i blew a advantage play (through mainly inexperience) that virtually guaranteed me from circa $96 to $496, 100% risk free if i'd of been on my toes and not missed the mark. :cool2::whip:
 
Camelback phenomenon

In the last 60 hours of play with the new higher limits in Colorado I have gone through what I call a camelback pattern were one to put my winning on an xy graph. I get up 120 units in 20-30 hrs of play and then loose it all in a 5 to 10 hour bad session. My total 60 hrs of recent tracked play has me at zero. I have been off the felt since Nov. and would like to save up a couple hundred units and take the wife and tot to Wendover. I do better at sd and think I could easily pay for the trip.
 
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