When do I get into long term?

[celadore]

Hi,

Been playing couple of hours a day for the last 3-4 months. Seen my bankroll go up and down - happy to say that it is up at the moment.

From what I have read on some of the sites I found, I should be winning 2 units an hour in the long term. (BS with Hi-Lo counting, 2 hands and a 1-12 spread)

So when do I get into long term? Is there a point when a card counter can feel safe that he has made it into the long term and that he is no longer in danger of a negative streak wiping him out? (Assuming I never increase the value of my base unit).

 

[Sonny]

From the FAQ thread above:

Q: What is the “long run” that I keep hearing people talk about?
A: The long run is the point where you overcome the variance (luck) of the game and can be assured of reaching your EV. It is the point where your results are no longer affected by luck and only your skill remains. Here are some threads about the long run:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5913

-Sonny-

 

[celadore]

Long way to go!

Thanks for the links. No idea how to figure out all the maths to work out the long run, but safe to say that I shouldn't be expecting to hit the long run in the first year - probably get there some time in the second year (based on 2 hours of play a day).

As mentioned before - happy to say that I've had a lucky start and am ahead of the curve (for the moment). Guess my follow up question is at what point should I consider increasing my base unit?

I started with 200 units (allowed myself a replenishable bankroll of 600 units). Am currently up 680 units. This gives me a total of 1,280 units that I have committed to this venture (my replenishable funds are now available).

My main worry is that I've been on a nice lucky streak and got ahead for the moment. This could mean that I have some nasty streaks in my future. Should I be chicken and carry on at my current levels until I hit my long term - or is it time to man up and double my bets? I know some people advise having a bankroll of 1,000 units or more. Maybe I should wait till I get 2,000 units before going up a stage?

 

[Sonny]

Guess my follow up question is at what point should I consider increasing my base unit?

You should increase your base unit when your bankroll is big enough to preserve an acceptable risk of ruin. If you are comfortable with the RoR of a 600-unit bankroll then you can double your unit when you double your bankroll. If you are willing to accept more risk then you can raise your bets earlier. If you want to decrease your risk in order to protect your money you can wait longer before increasing your bets. It’s all up to you.

My main worry is that I've been on a nice lucky streak and got ahead for the moment. This could mean that I have some nasty streaks in my future.

You’ll have some nasty streaks in the future no matter what happened in the past. That is just part of card counting and there is no way to avoid it. The good news is that a lucky streak does not mean that an unlucky streak is due. You should expect to keep making money as long as you have an advantage.

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

Is there a point when a card counter can feel safe that he has made it into the long term?

Yes, but not in this life. zg

 

[Kasi]

Should I be chicken and carry on at my current levels until I hit my long term - or is it time to man up and double my bets? I know some people advise having a bankroll of 1,000 units or more. Maybe I should wait till I get 2,000 units before going up a stage?

Doubling your bets will not change when you reach "long-term" as long as you keep the same unit spread at the same points. It will occur in the same number of hands either way whether you have a 100 unit roll or a 1000 unit roll.

 

[Kasi]

Yes, but not in this life. zg

Not in 1000 lifetimes if you don't when to expect it lol?

Maybe never if you assume it requires infinity?

I mean I'd guess you've probably reached it a few times maybe lol.? With all the SD games you play? (Is that what you play?). It might only take 10000 hands or so for it to be pretty reasonable to expect you could play that game that way forever.

One does have to play more or less the same game more or less the same way for a while to achieve it for that game.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by zengrifter
Yes, but not in this life. zg

Not in 1000 lifetimes if you don't when to expect it lol?

Maybe never if you assume it requires infinity?
.....

zggy is like a cat he's got at least nine.:cat::whip: