When should we cap our max bets?
- Thread starter Meistro
- Start date
I believe with today's world with, current conditions and games, a player needs to get his max bet out by tc+4 or tc +5 at the latest. To wait any longer and the TC frequencies are so low, that you lose the benefit. Essentially a player who spreads, lets say 1-12 and places his max bet at tc +8 or +10, isn't getting the benefit of 12x minimum bet. He essentially is not playing a 1-12 spread that he thinks he is, but rather a spread equivalent to whatever he puts out at tc +4 or +5.
I place my max bet @ tc +4 most games, a few even @ tc +3. That is my goal to get to max bet and exit at the shuffle after showing max bet.
But in what I am sure will seems contradictory, I have allowances for what I call a "super max bet", at a higher count like tc +8 or +10. But there are other conditions besides count alone, that have to be present to trigger my super max bet. Mainly, either I am sensing zero heat / attention from my play, or just the opposite that I have already drawn attention, unusual attention, which I am going to treat sort of like a back off whether I get backed off or not by the next shuffle. So I am going to take this store out of my rotation for a couple months anyway until things cool down, so I go ahead and go above and beyond what would be my normal max bet.
But this super max bet for me is a real rarity. Again, conditions have to be just right, or maybe just "wrong" for implementation. I am talking like maybe twice a year playing my regular rotation of stores. Maybe little more aggressively on a road trip.
I place my max bet @ tc +4 most games, a few even @ tc +3. That is my goal to get to max bet and exit at the shuffle after showing max bet.
But in what I am sure will seems contradictory, I have allowances for what I call a "super max bet", at a higher count like tc +8 or +10. But there are other conditions besides count alone, that have to be present to trigger my super max bet. Mainly, either I am sensing zero heat / attention from my play, or just the opposite that I have already drawn attention, unusual attention, which I am going to treat sort of like a back off whether I get backed off or not by the next shuffle. So I am going to take this store out of my rotation for a couple months anyway until things cool down, so I go ahead and go above and beyond what would be my normal max bet.
But this super max bet for me is a real rarity. Again, conditions have to be just right, or maybe just "wrong" for implementation. I am talking like maybe twice a year playing my regular rotation of stores. Maybe little more aggressively on a road trip.
I like to take a hybrid approach, with my bets being based around my advantage (I don't necessarily recommend full kelly however, and depending on the size of your bankroll you may wish to reduce your kelly fraction but still betting in proportion to your advantage just at a reduced rate), but then at some point capping your max bet to a finite amount of bets in your bankroll. That way you don't risk running badly in high edge situations and losing a large chunk of your bankroll. For example, a full kelly bettor might end up placing a 2% or 3% bankroll wager, in which case a few really bad rounds could really set back weeks of hard work. Generally, I think it is ill-advised to bet more than 1% of your bankroll at the start of a round.
I hear ya. I guess I am in an unusual situation (not really unusual for professional players) of having sufficient BR that RoR and Kelly is not an important consideration. I am playing to a fraction of Kelly. Such a small fraction that it is overkill, essentially zero RoR. In my situation my max bets are not determined by bankroll. They are set by what I determine the tolerance level to be of each individual casino I play at that particular time. I can afford to play a much larger max bet than I do, so even those rare times that I deem it beneficial to go beyond max bet to a "super max bet", I still am not increasing risk.
One statement in your post that I don't care for is, "in which case a few really bad rounds could really set back weeks of hard work". No offense, but to me, this boarders on "voodoo thinking". Players that have this kind of mentality are sort of all ready running scared, already looking for a reason, to not put out the money. It is a recipe for not winning or not winning as much as you should be winning. Not too long ago, we all sort of watched that mentality play out with Zee. He went through a period that he was afraid to put out that max bet and talked himself into betting less in max bet situations.
You cannot play scared or hesitate to throw out max bet. If you can't afford a certain max bet, then yes, you need to re-evaluate and rethink your spread and max bet, but you cannot hesitate to put it out just because a couple big losses can wipe out weeks of winning. That is voodoo thinking. Wiping out weeks of winnings happens. That is a short-term result and this is a long-term game.
One statement in your post that I don't care for is, "in which case a few really bad rounds could really set back weeks of hard work". No offense, but to me, this boarders on "voodoo thinking". Players that have this kind of mentality are sort of all ready running scared, already looking for a reason, to not put out the money. It is a recipe for not winning or not winning as much as you should be winning. Not too long ago, we all sort of watched that mentality play out with Zee. He went through a period that he was afraid to put out that max bet and talked himself into betting less in max bet situations.
You cannot play scared or hesitate to throw out max bet. If you can't afford a certain max bet, then yes, you need to re-evaluate and rethink your spread and max bet, but you cannot hesitate to put it out just because a couple big losses can wipe out weeks of winning. That is voodoo thinking. Wiping out weeks of winnings happens. That is a short-term result and this is a long-term game.
I assure you that considering the implications of short-term negative variance when choosing the size of your top bet is not voodoo thinking of any sort. Any seasoned blackjack veteran is only too aware that strings of bad luck can and will occur, so it is reasonable to choose a betting level where such a string does not cause irreparable damage to your bankroll. The fact that you yourself use what is presumably a sub 1% max bet is an implicit endorsement of my point.
Any seasoned blackjack veteran is NOT betting at a level that a short string of losses would cause "irreparable" damage to his bankroll. Seasoned blackjack veterans don't think like that. They think long-term and are prepared for the long-term.
I am not trying to insult you. I don't know what you consider yourself as far as "seasoned blackjack veteran" or "professional player" or semi-pro or whatever label. But for real success, real long-term success, you have to get past that mentality of short term thinking, worrying about short-term losses (wiping out weeks of winning). To really beat this game, you have to be in long-term thinking mode. If short term results and fear of wiping out wins, are influencing your decisions, you are not were you need to be. Just one person's opinion though.
And hey, don't think for a minute I haven't been there. I have gone through some of the short-term, thought mentality. We all have, just the same as Zee did. You gotta get past that if you really want to really beat this game consistently.
I am not trying to insult you. I don't know what you consider yourself as far as "seasoned blackjack veteran" or "professional player" or semi-pro or whatever label. But for real success, real long-term success, you have to get past that mentality of short term thinking, worrying about short-term losses (wiping out weeks of winning). To really beat this game, you have to be in long-term thinking mode. If short term results and fear of wiping out wins, are influencing your decisions, you are not were you need to be. Just one person's opinion though.
And hey, don't think for a minute I haven't been there. I have gone through some of the short-term, thought mentality. We all have, just the same as Zee did. You gotta get past that if you really want to really beat this game consistently.
Kewlj, I still prefer to keep max bet at $150 while playing $25 min., Game, sometimes put out 2 x $150. However, when forced to play 6 deck games, I quickly ramp up, TC 2 and its $100, to $150 at TC3 or 4 and keep it that same bet even if TC gets higher. I still feel uncomfortable betting more than $150 on any hand.