When to stop a winning session?

DonR · Oct 8, 2008

One of the biggest dilemmas for me is when to stop a winning session. I know I'm not going to do it on a positive count in a shoe, but generally, how much winning is enough?

I'm typically playing $10 or $15 tables ($5, if I can find them, which is not very easy). So, quite a few times in the past, I would get lucky and be up $100, or $150 in an hour or less (say around 10 betting units). If I keep on playing, a lot of times I've seen that money disappear completely, or go down to only around 2-3 betting units.

So, what is the right time to stop your winning session and call it a day, in relation to all the relevant factors (betting unit size, betting spread, and so on)?

In my case, I am playing 8 deck shoes, penetration is usually 70%-75% (sucks), dealer stands on soft 17 and in most cases I bet $10, as a base unit, with rather modest spread of about 1-4 or 1-5.

Any ideas guys of what would be a good time to leave with your winnings, if any?

Of course, quite a different story is when to leave when losing, but that's a different ball game all together.

Sonny · Oct 8, 2008

If you're playing with an advantage, why would you want to quit early? The longer you play, the more money you expect to make. Unless you're getting heat or the conditions have changed, keep playing.

-Sonny-

DonR · Oct 8, 2008

What is the expected win rate per hour, for an AP? I think I may have seen a formula that takes all the factors into consideration, but now I can't find it.

Sonny · Oct 8, 2008

For the game you described, a 1-5 spread is probably a break-even situation unless you are Wonging. A better play-all spread would be at least 1-16, maybe 1-20 or whatever you think you can get away with. If you are backcounting a 1-5 spread might earn you a unit or less per hour. The book Blackjack Attack covers all of these topics in great detail, and it has an entire chapter full of EV charts for just about any game.

-Sonny-

DonR · Oct 9, 2008

Thank you, Sonny.

EasyRhino · Oct 9, 2008

If playing a break even or losing-proposition game, I'd say leave as early as possible.

If playing a winning game, then I'd say stay as long as you want until your performance starts to degrade (fatigue or booze) or if you overstay your welcome (heat, or winning too much).

If heat is an issue, keep the session under an hour, or alternately time it by the number of shoes where you going from low bets to very high bets. Maybe only do that once or twice, then split.

Heat is not as often an issue at lower stakes.

matt21 · Oct 9, 2008

DonR said:

hey Don - i have also had to learn this lesson and asked a similar question a little while back. One thing that i do like is being able to record a winning session in my log - and i know that it's not a nice feeling to have given back all your winnings.

Having looked over my play, i now often leave after being up 20-30 units or more. Often I am down to begin with (sometimes by 40+ units) and will then often play until i reach break-even point or thereabouts. Also I would leave if the playing conditions are no longer any good. A gain or loss of 10 units is more or less a break-even session for me.

also, being up 10 units should not be a rare occurence. it should be relatively common for you to be up or down 10 units after only 1-2 shoes. so i dont think you should be considering stopping play if you are ahead by just 10 units.

finally, if you are not wonging, then it sounds like you are playing a losing game. i dont think you have +EV in a 8D/70-75pen/1-5 spread.

hope that helps a little.

sagefr0g · Oct 9, 2008

DonR said:

Sonny's right. kind of goes with out saying around here. Sonny IMHO knows his stuff.

i know your situation only too well.
if i'm not mistaken your sort of starting out and maybe haven't a real lot of experience. and i think your going up against crap games and that perhaps is about all you have available. and maybe wonging in and out is 'exceedingly difficult' for you in these games.
you ask:

this you need to know. and you want to try and have an idea of how your action is stacking up against such standards as you are asking about above.
ie. you want to have an idea of what to expect if you was a perfect card counter playing the same game you are playing. then you want to be able to compare the results of your action ie. hands played or hours played what are your results and what are the expected results of an ideal card counter with respect to standard deviation and expected value.
the following link has a spread sheet in the bottom of the post that can be very useful in figuring out that kind of stuff:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94557&postcount=6
it's called wwIIhilo.zip. i need to caution you how ever that the spread sheet would need to be configured for your game parameters. parameters such as standard deviation and W/L%. note: that in the link provided are game simulation results. you can get the parameters needed to adjust the spread sheet from such a simulation that is set up for the games you are going up against.

so again Sonny's advice on the question of when to quit is IMHO correct.
the standard answer is to not quit if you are lucky enough to be playing against a positive count, but you should quit if your trip bankroll is down so far that you would not be able to split and double down properly according to basic strategy or you would not be able to raise your bets according to your bet spread and ramp. also you'd quit if you was tired, fatiqued, angry, upset stuff like that. but really you can quit anytime you want to, it's no big deal. maybe it's just the idea you want to get in as much premium playing time as you can because of things like having to travel, room and board costs, things like that.

now i'm gonna get controversial here. a whole lot controversial and say that stop/win and stop/loss measures aren't necessarily a bad thing. such measures can definately be a drag on the profit margin of a professional player that plays a whole lot of blackjack. thats because the more hands you get in playing against an advantage the more you win regardless of those ups and downs you mentioned above in your orignial post. i'll go out on a limb and say guessing that you don't and probably wont play near the rate of play that a professional plays. probably not even close to say four to six hours a day five days a week, what ever. the point being using a goal based approach with stop/win and stop/loss measures probably woudn't have a significant negative effect at your level of play.
so but anyway if you put to use a simulation of the games you play and if you learn to use and understand the spread sheet that i mentioned then at least you can gauge how your doing when you play. then you would have a foundation of how you want to play and how your are actually doing. that being the case you can if you so desire use such knowledge to make decisions with regard to stop/win and stop/loss goals or just knowing your self and how much you play and what makes you happy sort of thing you can more easily decide the question of when to quit that best fits you.

just a little more on these issues with respect to what i think might be an issue that you face. that being i'm thinking you probably play all more so than using the advantage of wonging in and out.
you did mention how "I'm typically playing $10 or $15 tables ($5, if I can find them, which is not very easy). So, quite a few times in the past, I would get lucky and be up $100, or $150 in an hour or less (say around 10 betting units). If I keep on playing, a lot of times I've seen that money disappear completely, or go down to only around 2-3 betting units."
so lets say you have some stop/win and stop/loss goal target (maybe the ideal counters expected value, or some standard deviation up, what ever). well what ever one other thing you can expect playing all those eight deck games is to be sitting through a lot of zero and negative true count hands. probably about 70% of your playing time over the long haul. so heck say you hit some goal and suspend play for ten minutes, a day, a week what ever but it shouldn't be to hard to stop when it's a zero or negative count. do it. lol. so you combine a little voodoo with a smart thing i.e. wonging out and heck maybe next time you sit down you actually manage to wong in maybe. just some food for thought.
a few links where i rant a bit on these matters: (lol, i see one of the rants was in your ear)

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=100423&postcount=21
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=101153&postcount=139

zengrifter · Oct 9, 2008

DonR said:

Stop when its over. zg

DonR · Oct 9, 2008

Thanks, guys! Sagefr0g, thank you for the link to that spreadsheet. I am having a little bit of a problem, because I have an older version of Excel, which will not open xlsx extensions, but I'll get the File Format Converter from Microsoft's site, so I should be all set.

I'm trying to turn things to my favor. Right now, I am about breaking even, on the average (or still losing by a small margin). That's why I appreciate all the help from you guys, in my quest to try to become a better player than I am now. I know I'm never going to be a true pro, but I'd still like to improve as much as I can.

Two things seem to be extremely important: wonging in and out, and proper bet spreads (obviously much wider than what I'm using now). There's a bunch of things that do not help, like limited number of casinos and tables, crappy rules, and all of that stuff, but I am pretty sure that I can still do better than what I'm doing now.

kewljason · Oct 9, 2008

Sessions should not be determined by amount won or loss period, unless you have lost your entire playing stakes or won every chip the casino has. :laugh:

I play similar games as you do DonR, Atlantic city 6 or 8 decks, $10 or $15 tables, stand 17, 75+ pen. I do use a larger spread of at least 12-1. Since there is only a handful of casinos in AC that are still stand soft 17 and even fewer that have decent penetration, I play 20 hours per week between only 3casinos. For this reason, I am cautious and keep my sessions short. Here are my rules.

1. I leave (wong out) at -1 counts. (this makes for many short sessions) lol
2. I leave at the end of any shoe that ends with a max bet, win or lose, rather than going back to my small bet at the start of new shoe.
3. If neither of the above have occured, I leave after about an hour.

21forme · Oct 9, 2008

Do the casinos close their tables after they win a certain amount of money?

Sonny · Oct 9, 2008

21forme said:

Good point!

-Sonny-

sagefr0g · Oct 9, 2008

DonR said:

right i've got the newer version of excell.
try the file in this link it's for 2003
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94651&postcount=18

have you checked out gamemaster blackjack school stuff?
http://www.bjrnet.com/GameMasters/GameMasterClassicsIndex.html

one thing Donr to realize is that just playing basic strategy properly can get you a long way. basic strategy and a low size flat bet will lots of time have you playing a very close to near even game against the dealer.
then with counting and betting higher in proportion to the advantage associated with the count with consideration of your bankroll ( ie. high enough bets to overcome the disparity and loss a flat betting basic strategy player would lose and the right size bankroll that will keep you in the game long enough to realize these advantages) you can achieve a even game for the long run.
if you bet just a bit more precisely according to your advantage with a higher bet spread it becomes possible to start making some money.
it will far to often be a wild up and down rollercoaster thrill ride whether you establish stop/win, stop/loss points or if you just play straight through until you've lost your trip bankroll or won some amount and just have to stop playing for what ever practical reasons.
just maybe after you can fully understand the gamemaster blackjack school stuff and maybe if you aquire a simulator or a book that can give you a thorough understanding of risk of ruin, and specific game parameters such as standard deviation, expected value and win rate then once you have an understanding of all that stuff you can sit back, let it all sink in.
then step back, take a deep breath lol, and calmly consider what all this stuff means and how it might be you want to put it all to work for you. then you'll be a little closer to knowing when it is you want to quit, but even then it won't be all that easy of a decision lmao.

DonR · Oct 10, 2008

sagefr0g said:

Don't worry about it. I've already converted it using the Microsoft's File Format Converter utility. It worked like a charm.

sagefr0g said:

I don't recall checking that stuff out in the past. Thanks for the link.

sagefr0g said:

Yes, I am aware that playing perfect BS can get you a long way. After all, that's I've been doing for quite a few years now, and I still haven't lost my shirt, LOL!

It is still a losing strategy in the long run, not by very much, but still losing. That is why I am trying now to bring it up a notch, if I can. I've already tried the CC stuff on my last few visits to casinos. Since I still don't have the guts for those "wild rides", I was keeping my spreads very low, something like 1-3, or 1-4. Yes, I know that is not the proper way, but hopefully I'll get there.

As a matter of fact, I went to a casino today a played at a couple of $10 tables. At TC's around zero, and down to -1 or -2, I was betting $10. When it went below -2, I took a few bathroom breaks, lol. At +1, I was going with $15, at TC of +2 - $20, TC of +3, I would bet $30, and at TC of +4 or higher (which only happened once or twice), I bet $40. The funny thing, actually not very funny at all, was that I was doing okay at lower counts and bets, but almost always when I raised my bets, based on the TC, I got killed. The dealer pretty much always had a better hand. So, I went down $350.

Decided to take a break, had something to eat and came back. This time it was much better at those higher counts. I got almost all my money back and decided to leave, taking a loss of $50. My problem in this second session was that I was so scared of betting higher (still not a true counter, lol) that I never exceeded $30 bet, even at TC +4, or higher. I think I have to get way more comfortable with the whole system, and have a better stomach for the wild rides, LOL!

Speaking of proper bet spreads, these damn casinos here in Ontario are not helping at all. A couple of these smaller casinos have max bets of $100 only, regardless of what the min bet is. A couple of the bigger ones have better ranges, like $15-$300, or $25-$500, but they are flooded with those damn CSM's.

Oh well, I'm not gonna make this a living, that's for sure, but I'll try to be a better player.

Thank Sagefr0g and everybody else here for the valuable information that you share with the rest of us. Cheers!

DonR · Oct 15, 2008

So, I went to another casino today, looked for a $10 table, couldn't find it and started at a $15 table instead. After playing 5 or 6 hands, being up by one unit and with TC at -1, they opened a new $10 table and I quickly switched over to that one.

Played about 3 or 4 shoes within an hour, the dealer wasn't too fast, so I easily kept track of the count (still learning this stuff). The count was going between -2 and +2, mostly staying around zero, or plus or minus 1. A couple of times at -2 I wonged out, once for 3 hands only, once I took a bathroom break, for the rest of the shoe. I was pretty much only flat betting, because I did not see anything too dramatic in the count. With TC +2 I bet 2 units (only happened about 3 times), and at +1 I was going with either 1 or 1.5 units. So, a pretty quiet game alltogether, which eventually gained me 15 units, after an hour of play (I played strict BS, but applied a few of the negative counts I18 rules). That worked very well and so after an hour of play, being 15 units up, I said:"That's it for the day!"

Reading all these very useful information here, and realizing that statistically I can only expect to win 1 or 1.5 units per hour (if I am a decent AP, which I'm still far away from), I think I did the right move. It always feels so good when you win, especially after only an hour of play. Obviously, I was very lucky, but hey, a win is a win.

One more thing, guys. In my last shoe today, at TC -2 (I played through this time) I had a pair of 8's against a dealer's T card, twice in 3 hands. I decided to only hit, rather than split, both times. The first time, I busted, but the second time I pulled a 4 and beat the dealer. Had I split both times, I would have lost all 4 units. I don't think that was the right strategy, but I was really hoping for small cards, based on TC -2. I guess, I got lucky...any opinions? I know that at very high counts, you stay with two 8's vs a T. What is the proper play at low counts, still split I guess?

Anyway, ever since I started counting, I feel I have a slightly better control of the game. It is definitely a more exciting game, than when I was strictly playing BS. Only that I18 rule about 16 vs T saved me some money already, within my last few visits to casinos.

Great forum, guys! I am really so glad that I found it.

Thunder · Oct 15, 2008

I had the fortune of being at a $10 table at the Borgata once where we cleaned the dealer out of red chips and most of the greens. We were all going nuts cause since we were on quite a winning streak. (One guy at my table won $16,000) What happens next? In comes a security guard with about $5000 to refill the coffers. Point is, the casino will never run out of money!!!

sagefr0g · Oct 15, 2008

DonR said:

i applaud what you did far as calling it a day. people who know better are going to disagree and they are right theoretically for a perfect AP. at any rate they will have to admitt that they don't know the degree to which you either hurt or helped your self, just they could say you've slowed yourself down on gaining a theoretical advantage ie. EV in the case that you could have played on (in other words the more hands you get in the better, theoretically). but most will certainly agree that some one who is not fully expert in the field should not play at all if an advantage is the goal.
but another consideration on the issue of some stop point measure. say you do stop at some point for what ever reason. the new day is just as unknown as playing on is (long as you don't quit a known positive EV situation). the point being your swimming in a sea of murky probabilities awash in the unknown. but you quit at something that is known (albeit the true nature of which is murky) for better or worse but at least it's acceptable to you (and this is in essence the definition of ROR that you should have or could have originally applied to your bankroll to start out with only differance being is that it's a decision made in the short term). and further more when you consider the likelyhood of a advantage the results of which are realized now (when you've already exceeded what you could have expected to make for the rest of today) as opposed to tomorrow where now (or today) is a shorter span of time with respect to the time tomorrow has to offer then you are more likely to see the advantage present and maybe be realized tomorrow.
maybe you was lucky, maybe not. there are ways to sort that out to some degree by holding a known statistical yardstick (ie. a simulation or applied maths) up against your number of hands and how you play but even then the question of just what did happen and how it all came down will be murky (ie mired in a spread of expectation and standard deviation and God only knows what).
so but what ever i'm thinking you wanna consider another factor.
risk. let me say it another way. lol.
RISK
learn all you want on advantage play and risk of ruin concomittent with the theory. risk your money how you please in accordance with all of that.
but if you come up with a way to handle the risk that still remains and that which is unknown, with out throwing ever more money at it let me know. lol.

DonR · Oct 15, 2008

I understand "the more you play, the better" rule, and this most certainly applies to any true AP. That is pretty much the only way how you can utilize your advantage to the fullest.

In my case, a lot of factors limit my realistic possibility of ever reaching the goal of becoming a real AP. With only 8D games available, I should probably be spreading at least 1-12, or 1-16, if not more. These damn casinos, available to me, have a lot of limiting factors: table limits very often only $100, with $5 or $10 min very, very often almost impossible to find. In a lot of cases, wider spread tables are only with CSM's. Wonging on a regular basis isn't easy either, because of typically not too many tables available.So, trying to play a perfect counter's game is not easy at all.

One can say I shouldn't be playing at all, and they are probably right. The problem is I like the game, lol.

Even in the past (BS only), I've had much more winning than losing sessions. The only problem with that, as I'm sure you can guess, is the fact that 1 losing session wipes out all the gains from 4-5 winning ones. So now, adding counting, I'm really only hoping to change that a little bit. Adding betting spreads (even if not to their fullest extent, for the above reasons) and variations to the BS, I hope that my overall balance can be positive, maybe not by much, but still in the + territory.

When to stop a winning session?

DonR

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Sonny

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DonR

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Sonny

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DonR

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EasyRhino

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matt21

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sagefr0g

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zengrifter

Banned

DonR

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kewljason

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21forme

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Sonny

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sagefr0g

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DonR

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DonR

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Thunder

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sagefr0g

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DonR

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