When to take Even Money?

[celadore]

From all the materials I've read - I've not seen any advice on what to do when you get a BlackJack and the dealer shows an A. Does that mean that as counters we completely ignore Even Money option?

According to the system I use, I put insurance whenever there is a TC >= +3 when the dealer shows an A, except when I have a BlackJack - where take even money. I know that if I insure a BlackJack I'm going to win my original bet no matter what happens. So I might as well take even money to speed up play and save cards. (Here the dealer takes a single card. Does not take a hole card like I've read about, so that card is still sitting in the deck).

But as I understand it - the payouts for even money and Insurance are different - so at what true count should I be taking Even Money?
For insurance - we are betting that the dealer will get a 10 and payout 2:1. This means that we take insurance at the point where the probability of getting a 10 is 33.4% or higher (TC >= +3 using Hi/Lo).
For Even Money however, we are surrendering 33.3% of our potential winnings in case the dealer gets a 10. I can't quite get my head around at what point this swings in favour of the player. When is it beneficial to take even money?

I guess this only make a difference if this point is at TC =< +2. It is probably at TC +3 or greater which is why we ignore the Even Money option?

 

[Pwn]

Holy Sh*t!!! That is a aweseome question! I actually searched it and found nothing!!!

Anyway what I did find when searching is ALWAYS take insurance when the TC is +3.... So I am assuming you would have to take it ( Atleast I would )


But I def do want to see what the RIGHT way to do this is!!!! Again, GREAT question!



Pwn

 

[cardcounter0]

Just another example that there is more to counting than flippin' thru a deck of cards in 20 seconds.

HINT: If you take even money, you don't get the option of taking insurance.

 

[Thunder]

If at TC=0 it would be a bad idea to take even money because the dealer would have BJ 4/13 times which means that on average after 13 times assuming a bet of $10, you would get 4*$10= $40 for the 4 times that the dealer had blackjack, while for the 9 times the dealer didn't have BJ, you'd lose $5 each time, thus losing $45. This would cost you $5 for a whopping 3.7% house edge This is the same edge that they would have for insurance. Therefore, whetheryou take insurance or even money, it's the same thing.

 

[Billy C1]

Simple is good

Let's keep it simple folks. The point value of your two cards ISN'T a factor when taking insurance. The ONLY time you take insurance is when the TC is +3 or more.

Billy C1

 

[shadroch]

The bigger you bet is compared to your normal bet, the more reasons to take even money.
If you are a $5 bettor who threw out a $50 bet on a whim, take the even money. If its a $5 bet, then its not a good idea.

 

[Pwn]

Just another example that there is more to counting than flippin' thru a deck of cards in 20 seconds.

HINT: If you take even money, you don't get the option of taking insurance.

Let's keep it simple folks. The point value of your two cards ISN'T a factor when taking insurance. The ONLY time you take insurance is when the TC is +3 or more.

Billy C1

Of course there is "cardcounter0", but as you can see that in fact it IS correct to take insurance/even money when the TC is +3..... If you want to hear my honest opinion - The Hi-Lo indices are common sense

And what do you mean by " if you take even money you don't get the chance of insurance" ??? Even money IS insurance..... Right?


Pwn

 

[bowbell]

Of course there is "cardcounter0", but as you can see that in fact it IS correct to take insurance/even money when the TC is +3..... If you want to hear my honest opinion - The Hi-Lo indices are common sense

And what do you mean by " if you take even money you don't get the chance of insurance" ??? Even money IS insurance..... Right?


Pwn

Even money is the same as insurance. Just a time saving shortcut.

 

[bjcount]

Even money is the same as insurance. Just a time saving shortcut.

It's a push, if dealer has BJ, or a win.
In my book neither one hurts you.

Unless your at Max bet, go for the win.

BJC

 

[cardcounter0]

Of course there is "cardcounter0", but as you can see that in fact it IS correct to take insurance/even money when the TC is +3..... If you want to hear my honest opinion - The Hi-Lo indices are common sense

And what do you mean by " if you take even money you don't get the chance of insurance" ??? Even money IS insurance..... Right?


Pwn

Reading thru the OP it seemed like part of the confusion was that he thought "even money" and "insurance" were two seperate events, like he could do one or the other, (or both), since he mentions "insuring a blackjack".

But he is a hint for you "PWN" -- I was making money at advantage plays in casinos before you even knew what a blunt was.

Oh, the insurance index is +1.4 for single deck, +2.5 for double deck, and +3 for shoes. For even GREATER accuracy, side count aces with HiLo. Take the RC minus side count and divide by the number of unseen aces. This is better than hilo and eliminates the need for deck estimation.

 

[Pwn]

Reading thru the OP it seemed like part of the confusion was that he thought "even money" and "insurance" were two seperate events, like he could do one or the other, (or both), since he mentions "insuring a blackjack".

But he is a hint for you "PWN" -- I was making money at advantage plays in casinos before you even knew what a blunt was.
Oh, the insurance index is +1.4 for single deck, +2.5 for double deck, and +3 for shoes. For even GREATER accuracy, side count aces with HiLo. Take the RC minus side count and divide by the number of unseen aces. This is better than hilo and eliminates the need for deck estimation.

Hey do your thing - It's your world big pimpin, I'm just that role... I am not challenging you in any way, I def understand my place in the counting world and realize it is not even that.... On a side note I enjoy reading your comments - I am going to research your method with the Aces, I find that method very do-able and intriguing.



Thank you,

Pwn


P.S. - The only confusion was your interpretation of the original post - Read it again, he knows the difference...

 

[SleightOfHand]

Hey do your thing - It's your world big pimpin, I'm just that role... I am not challenging you in any way, I def understand my place in the counting world and realize it is not even that.... On a side note I enjoy reading your comments - I am going to research your method with the Aces, I find that method very do-able and intriguing.



Thank you,

Pwn


P.S. - The only confusion was your interpretation of the original post - Read it again, he knows the difference...

i believe he is talking about the Victor Insurance Parameter.

 

[Pwn]

i believe he is talking about the Victor Insurance Parameter.

Niiiiiiiiiiiice!

:grin:

 

[HarryKuntz]

Example

Even money is the same as insurance. Just a time saving shortcut.

This is correct, here is an example to help get your heads around why:-

bet $10 ins bet $5 = total bet 15

Dealer has BJ
Bet $10 pushed - $10 returned
Ins $5 won - $15 returned
Total Returned = $25 profit = $10

No Dealer BJ
Bet $10 won - $25 returned
Ins $5 lost - $0 returned
Total Returned = $25 - Profit = $10

Even money
$10 bet - $20 returned - Profit $10

Since all examples return a profit of $10 this concludes that Even Money & Insurance are exactly the same thing.
so Index plays for insurance and for even money are also the same.

 

[celadore]

HINT: If you take even money, you don't get the option of taking insurance.

I know, you have misunderstood the question. The question in simple terms was this:

Should I take even money when the TC is +1 or +2.
When the TC is +3 or above I will take even money (to save time of asking for insurance).

 

[callipygian]

Should I take even money when the TC is +1 or +2.

Depends on how much you're betting. I think Arnold Snyder addresses this in one of his books, but the reason why you might want to is because you have a large bet out and you want to lock in a sure victory instead of gambling for an even bigger one.

I'll give a hypothetical scenario: the true count is +5 in a double deck game, you put out your entire bankroll on the line. You are dealt a blackjack, but dealer has an ace. Plus, two other people drew TT and the true count is now +2. Do you take insurance even though the true count is "too low"? Hell yeah.

I believe Snyder gives a formula when you should take insurance; off the top of my head, it is p >= 1/[3*(1+f)], where p is the probability of drawing a 10, and f is the fraction of your bankroll you have out. At any rate, the gist of the formula is correct - the higher your bet, the lower your insurance index should be.

 

[celadore]

If at TC=0 it would be a bad idea to take even money because the dealer would have BJ 4/13 times which means that on average after 13 times assuming a bet of $10, you would get 4*$10= $40 for the 4 times that the dealer had blackjack, while for the 9 times the dealer didn't have BJ, you'd lose $5 each time, thus losing $45. This would cost you $5 for a whopping 3.7% house edge.

Carrying on from this logic, when the TC is +1 - the probability of the dealer getting a 10 is 4/12 (assuming that the ratio of A:10 is 1:4).
Then for the 4 times the dealer gets blackjack I will get $40, while for the 8 times he doesn't I would lose $40. Meaning that at TC +1 it doesn't make a difference whether or not I take 'Even Money'.

BUT at TC +2, the probability of the dealer getting a 10 is 4/11. NOW, the 4 times the dealer gets blackjack I make $40, the 7 times he doesn't I lose $35. So at TC +2 I should take Even Money!!

Conclusion
When I have a blackjack against the dealers A - I should take Even Money at TC +2 and above.
When the dealers shows an A and I don't have a blackjack - I put insurance at TC +3 and above.

This right? My maths could be wrong as I'm not sure how the ratio of A:10's varies as the true count rises.

(Actually - come to think of it - I should take even money at TC +1 purely for the purpose of saving time. The EV at TC +1 is the same if I take even money or not)

 

[celadore]

I'll give a hypothetical scenario: the true count is +5 in a double deck game, you put out your entire bankroll on the line.

I understand what you are saying that it makes sense to take even money when you put a lot down, but I disagree on 2 points:

1. I would never put down my entire bankroll on a single bet - I am an AP not a poppy
2. I am playing for the long term - therefore it is imperative that I make the correct statistical play at all times and maximise my EV as much as possible based on my skill level. Otherwise what's the point in being an AP in the first place.

 

[shadroch]

I understand what you are saying that it makes sense to take even money when you put a lot down, but I disagree on 2 points:

1. I would never put down my entire bankroll on a single bet - I am an AP not a poppy
2. I am playing for the long term - therefore it is imperative that I make the correct statistical play at all times and maximise my EV as much as possible based on my skill level. Otherwise what's the point in being an AP in the first place.

Are you kidding, or are you a newbie?

 

[celadore]

Are you kidding, or are you a newbie?

I'm a newbie :devil:
Was just trying to be nice about pointing out that he was talking nonsense.