When to take Even Money?

FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
celadore ms to Seeimagine that the payout on successfully taking INSURANCE when he has a Blackjack is somehow different than taking EVEN MONEY.

That is entirely wrong

It is precisely the same, it just saves a few seconds of time.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
Paper nonesense can be real life sense

celadore said:
I'm a newbie :devil:
Was just trying to be nice about pointing out that he was talking nonsense.
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The pivot point in a shoe for insurance/even money is recognized as +3 and of course it is +3 at the time you must make your decision on insurance and not whatever the count was when you made your bet decision.

Nic-picking the math there is no arguement with celadore. Your under that pivot point and you do not take insurance, but on an overbet or not overbetting but in getting away with a huge spread, there are other considerations and the math is closer than we are giving it credit for in this case.
A little math:
We take insurance when there is a .3333 chance or 1/3 chance of the dealer having a 10 card in the hole.
Off the top of the shoe there is a .3077 chance of that 10 being there.
In our example of a TC of +2 we are quite a bit closer (not there) to that pivot point with a .3269. Yes we are nicpicking at .0064 and as someone who often gets away with a spread of $25 to 2X$500, in this situation I take even money. I feel bad if the dealer does not have blackjack but know I would feel much worse should I have not insured my hand and landed up with a max bet push.

ihate17
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
A while ago I was playing a face-up (?) pitch game, I had a much bigger bet out than the count called for, and the count was NEARLY good enough for insurance. And I was dealt a natural and the dealer got an ace.

So when the dealer asked me for even money, I insured for less.

The dealer had no idea how to proceed.
 
C

celadore

Well-Known Member
ihate17 said:
In our example of a TC of +2 we are quite a bit closer (not there) to that pivot point with a .3269. Yes we are nicpicking at .0064 and as someone who often gets away with a spread of $25 to 2X$500, in this situation I take even money. I feel bad if the dealer does not have blackjack but know I would feel much worse should I have not insured my hand and landed up with a max bet push.

ihate17
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I think many people have misunderstood what I was after.

According to my OP, taking even money and taking insurance is the same thing - it has the same net result. Someone was kind enough to do the math for us to prove this in a post above. I have always agreed with this fact.

I take even money over insurance option just to save time.

According to a previous post above - I have decided that the correct time to take even money is at TC +1. The correct time to take insurance is at TC +3. This is an additional rule I am now following from what I originally used to play.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
celadore said:
The question in simple terms was this:

Should I take even money when the TC is +1 or +2.
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As CardCounter0 said, take even money at +1.4 in a SD game, +2.5 in a DD game and +3 in a 6D game. If you take even money at lower counts you will be losing money and increasing variance.

-Sonny-
 
T

Thunder

Well-Known Member
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money :)
 
HarryKuntz

HarryKuntz

Well-Known Member
Thunder said:
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money :)
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Or paying slightly more than even money to buy the blackjack from the player....

The problem with these kinds of plays is that you are basically stealing action from the casino and will attract unnecessary heat.:flame:
 
SleightOfHand

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
Thunder said:
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money :)
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Hmm... Sounds interesting. With a count of <~-1.5 you can give 5-2 and <~-3 give 3-1 (I think :p). Seems a little too suspicious to me though.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
Lol

Like the casino would permit you to take the ploppy's money !
Oh yeah ! They will love that action ! <sarcasm>

Beside, what would you do? Offer them 2.1 to one?

-- and if they win on a $25 Insurance bet pay them $57.50 ?

More than 2.1 or 2.2 to 1 -- you'll give up your edge in a hurry; besides your edge will be pretty damn small in almost all cases.

Practically worthless.

DO THE MATH !
 
S

standard toaster

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
A while ago I was playing a face-up (?) pitch game, I had a much bigger bet out than the count called for, and the count was NEARLY good enough for insurance. And I was dealt a natural and the dealer got an ace.

So when the dealer asked me for even money, I insured for less.

The dealer had no idea how to proceed.
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haha what ended up happening?
 
J

johndoe

Well-Known Member
Thunder said:
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money :)
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Others have stated why this won't work, but I see no reason that you can't buy insurance on someone else's uninsured hand when the count calls for it. May draw a bit of attention tho.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
Ignorance of dealers

EasyRhino said:
A while ago I was playing a face-up (?) pitch game, I had a much bigger bet out than the count called for, and the count was NEARLY good enough for insurance. And I was dealt a natural and the dealer got an ace.

So when the dealer asked me for even money, I insured for less.

The dealer had no idea how to proceed.
Click to expand...

Rhino

It is just another example of how little dealers know about the game they deal. With most dealers, if you just say even money and insurance (for the full amount) are the same thing, they need a pad, pencil and 20 minutes to figure it out before they agree with you.

In your case any less than idiot dealer would just push your blackjack and pay you 2-1 for whatever amount you bet on insurance. Of course expecting a less than idiot dealer may be expecting too much.

ihate17
 
B

bjcount

Well-Known Member
ihate17 said:
Rhino

It is just another example of how little dealers know about the game they deal. With most dealers, if you just say even money and insurance (for the full amount) are the same thing, they need a pad, pencil and 20 minutes to figure it out before they agree with you.

In your case any less than idiot dealer would just push your blackjack and pay you 2-1 for whatever amount you bet on insurance. Of course expecting a less than idiot dealer may be expecting too much.

ihate17
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I have found that dealers just coming off a spanish 21 table, mispay often at BJ tables especially at the end of the early AM shift when there eyes are closing in the standing upright position. A few months back we had a dealer fall asleep with the card in her hand as she was dealing out the first cards in the round.

It was absolutely hysterical, then the pit manager came over to see why the entire table was crying from laughing so hard.

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

BJC
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
ihate17 said:
In your case any less than idiot dealer would just push your blackjack and pay you 2-1 for whatever amount you bet on insurance. Of course expecting a less than idiot dealer may be expecting too much.
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Actually, I think the bafflement came from what to do if the dealer DIDN'T have a natural. But I didn't take it too hard on her, she was pretty cute. I was just annoyed that it brought the floorman over to the table again.
 
G

golfnuts

New Member
should be TC>=+4

Billy C1 said:
Let's keep it simple folks. The point value of your two cards ISN'T a factor when taking insurance. The ONLY time you take insurance is when the TC is +3 or more.

Billy C1
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I believe TC>+4 you buy insurance. 52-4=48=3*4*4 why everybody talking about +3? is that because we all use the same chart?
Can anyone prove that I am wrong?
 
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