At what point does lifetime ROR become relevant to your bankroll? You can be at 30% ROR total, but 1 or 2% ROR for a given number of rounds. But at what total ROR should you be at to risk any of that money at all for the lowest amount of rounds? Assuming non replenishable, but not living off of it. Hope it makes sense.
Where Do You Draw The Line?
- Thread starter Raven
- Start date
I mean I think this answer just has to be extremely personal -- we can't tell you what to do if you go bust, or whether taking a slightly higher ROR might let you level up from red-green to green-black faster in the event you don't bust. But if you do reach the long run, you're up against the total ROR.
You can always run better or worse than you ever imagine, but if you tell me that after playing the next 1,000 hours, you're going to be out of bankroll 30% of the time, I think you probably want to revise your betting strategy or wait until you have a bigger bankroll to give this a try.
You can always run better or worse than you ever imagine, but if you tell me that after playing the next 1,000 hours, you're going to be out of bankroll 30% of the time, I think you probably want to revise your betting strategy or wait until you have a bigger bankroll to give this a try.
It was for a friend. I was telling her to bet 1% of her bank as a top bet and back count like I did. For me it worked well but when I simmed it, the total bankroll was 33% ROR. And if you use the top bet of 1% the risk goes up and EV goes down even for any one session. And I thought by backcounting my ROR would be lower. Apparently I got really lucky in those early years.MrFatCat said:
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
You are doing something very wrong in regards to you simulation. Inputting something wrong or something because the numbers you posted make no sense.Raven said:
1% of total BR as a top bet is generally a very safe way to play. That was the standard before computer simulations. That is going to result in a low and acceptable RoR for even a play all situation. So when you add wonging it should be even lower. So for you to get a total RoR number of 33%....something is definitely wrong!
You're doing something very wrong. Your numbers don't make any sense. If your top bet is 1% of your BR, and it's placed at the proper true count, you're never going to have 30% lifetime ROR. That makes no sense at all. Of course, the assumption is that you're betting optimally and that the sim is showing you where and to be placing that 1% wager. Obviously, if you did something dumb like bet 1% of your BR when you had no advantage, ... well, you get the idea.Raven said:
As for risk and e.v. for a single session (define "session"), not sure what your point is. There is enough information in BJA3 or from sims to know what the chance is of losing x amount in y hours.
Don