Who will win first hand?

[tribute]

What are my chances of winning the first hand dealt from a newly shuffled deck? Is it different considering number of decks in play?

 

[FLASH1296]

The number of decks does not matter.

42.9% Wins with S17 [slightly lower with H17]

8.9% Pushes with S17 [slightly lower with H17]

 

[Sucker]

It also depends upon whether or not your goal is to win the most money, or merely to win the HAND. By never doubling and by adjusting your splitting strategy you could bump that win rate up to something in the neighborhood of 43.5%.

 

[jack.jackson]

The number of decks does not matter.

42.9% Wins with S17 [slightly lower with H17]

8.9% Pushes with S17 [slightly lower with H17]

Flash, wouldnt you be more likely to win the first hand, from a single deck game, than let's say a 6 deck game, with the same rules????

 

[FLASH1296]

There is no significant difference that I can see.

My question for you is — why would there be ?

 

[aslan]

The number of decks does not matter.

42.9% Wins with S17 [slightly lower with H17]

8.9% Pushes with S17 [slightly lower with H17]

So that is to say you have a 51.8% chance of winning or breaking even. Which of course does not warrant going against a 48.2% chance of losing. It just goes to demonstrate why counters wait until the likelihood of better-paying naturals is highest, as well as the chances of winning on doubles and splits, before raising their bets.

 

[jack.jackson]

There is no significant difference that I can see.

My question for you is — why would there be ?

Not sure flash1296, but according to our strategy engine the HE for 1D H17 DAS is .04 while its .66 for 6D with the same rules. So wouldnt you be more likely to win the first hand from the single deck game, since it has a lower HE?

 

[FLASH1296]

The House Edge has virtually nothing to do with the probability of winning your first hand.

BUT … It has a EVERYTHING to do with the chances of being dealt a Blackjack, and getting advantageous Splits and Doubles.

 

[NightStalker]

Depends on ur playing strategy

Assuming perfect BS, it is close to 43%.

• Lower the number of decks, increase the probability..
• Better the rules-s17, increase the probability...
• No double downs, increase the probability..