Why are my swings so big??

[Splittingten's]

Alright so I just started taking card counting to the casinos. Before I did I ran a manual simulation with the same rules but better pen. When I did my manual simulation of about 21k hands it would be rare to win or lose 400or more over the course of 300 hands. I have played 3 sessions so far at the casino. First session i won 440, second I won 1,060, third i lost 560. These are large swings for a 5-60 spread. My first and secon session were about 12 hours a piece and my third about 4 hours.
I should also memtion that i played two spots of 60 three or four times on tje last shoe of the day. I didn't want to say it because I'm ashamed. That's the only mistake I made. It was just rough seeing a running count of 12 with ledd than 2 decks remaininf and only a few more cards till the cut card. I felt compelled to take the good cards. Big mistake, i know.
Please share your thoughts as to why my varianxe is so high.
Just more hands?

 

[KewlJ]

I don't think your swings are that big or unusual. Spreading 5-60, wins and losses of 440 and 560 are only 7-9 max bets. Not unusual at all.

AND, playing two spots with a max bet of 60, increases variance as the two hands are not independent of each other, meaning just a couple hands where the dealer pulls 20's and blackjack, which are more likely with a higher count, and those small number of max bet losses occur twice as fast. Conversely, two or three hands in a row where dealer breaks and you win two max bets per, and the max bet wins occur twice as fast. So no surprise 7-9 max bet wins and losses are occurring frequently.

On top of that, a 4 hour session is not a short session, and 12 hour sessions are down right marathon sessions, which will result in bigger swings. Frankly I am surprised your swings haven't been bigger in both directions.

 

[ZeeBabar]

One of the things you will learn is whether you can have the self control to make sessions much much sborter. If you sit that long, they will notice your play, remember you. If negative variance bothers you, perhaps use a trip bankroll. If anything, it makes you take break and reassess.

 

[Meistro]

The flip side of course is that the longer your sessions, the higher your volume, the more you expect to earn. EV = action * edge so if you have 10 x as much action you will expect to generate 10 x as much money. While it is certainly true that longer sessions can generate heat sometimes there is really no one guarding the hen house and all you are doing with a hit and run approach is costing yourself money.

Probably though as a newer player you are making some basic mistakes that may contribute to your negative fluctuations.

 

[KewlJ]

The OP didn't mention what the heat situation is like where he plays, nor any goals towards longevity. Perhaps he plays a location where that is not a concern. But as a player that places longevity among his top priorities, long sessions are poison. You show too much info and will eventually get picked off.

One really bad and revealing aspect about the long session is when you dig out of a massive hole. As a new player, I found this experience to feel similar to experiencing a big win, but in reality, this is one of the times you are most exposed. You likely showed your big bets, both when you fell into that hole (losing your max bets) and again when you dug out (winning your max bets). You may think there are no consequences because you didn't actually register a big win, but that is faulty logic. I have found this to be one of most vulnerable times concerning heat and backoffs. And if you think you survived that day, the consequences of this exposure, very often smack you in the face on your next visit to this location with a quick backoff or heat.

 

[Meistro]

Another common mistake gamblers make is to play long sessions when they are losing, in order to get even, but quitting as soon as they book a modest win. The problem with this approach is that you end up putting in a higher % of your volume in mediocre situations but when conditions are optimal you quit right away. What you actually want to do is the exact opposite, which is be more inclined to quit when conditions are poor but stretch out the session as long as possible when conditions are good. While it is true that you can generate an artificially long series of winning sessions with this approach it eventually leads to a single massive losing session where your losses can easily exceed the wins of all your brief sessions combined.

 

[KewlJ]

Plus, it is important to actually book losses....have them on record. Let's say you are a 50 grand winner at ABC casino over several years. When some pit person, actually looks at your history and they eventually will, if they see almost all winning sessions, that will trigger some action. But if that same 50k win over several years shows a decent amount of losing sessions, it looks more "normal" (and less suspicious), even though the total win is the same. It doesn't have that "he always wins" look to it.

I have a number of pre-determined exit triggers and "booking a loss" is one of them. It's one we don't often talk about, but very beneficial to longevity.

 

[LatamCC]

(...) While it is true that you can generate an artificially long series of winning sessions with this approach it eventually leads to a single massive losing session where your losses can easily exceed the wins of all your brief sessions combined.

I Think this just happened to me... I was 16 sessions in and 120 units up. Most of them short sessions of 2-3 hours tops, best ones up 45-40 units worst down 25-30 units... finally y had an almost all night session in total 3 casinos yesterday.... and lost 89 units...

 

[DSchles]

I Think this just happened to me... I was 16 sessions in and 120 units up. Most of them short sessions of 2-3 hours tops, best ones up 45-40 units worst down 25-30 units... finally y had an almost all night session in total 3 casinos yesterday.... and lost 89 units...

FYI, 2-3 hours is not what most of us describe as a "short session."

Don

 

[KewlJ]

FYI, 2-3 hours is not what most of us describe as a "short session."

omg..NO!

For me, and I know my style is what most players would consider extreme, but a long session is 30-45 minutes. And a short session....45 seconds. I just won't play through many negative counts and that makes or some really short sessions.

 

[21forme]

At DD, I've seen a player get up after the first hand, where he had a BJ and the dealer had a 20. Maybe that was you?

 

[KewlJ]

At DD, I've seen a player get up after the first hand, where he had a BJ and the dealer had a 20. Maybe that was you?

Maybe it was!

At DD, I am actually just a bit slower to exit, especially if I just sat down. I will generally play through to the first shuffle, even if the count goes negative right away. I mean we are only talking a few rounds. This is a good time to practice your fake phone call skills. But if I have played through a couple shuffles and the count didn't go positive enough for me to exit after showing my spread and the first round of that new shuffle was as you mentioned....hell yeah...that's a good time to exit.

But put me on 6 decks, or even worse 8 decks, and have a running count of minus 7 or 8 after two rounds, hell yeah.....I am gone after two rounds, even if I just sat down. I am not going to sit there and play through 30-50 rounds to get to a shuffle. I will take my chances with another table, even if at another casino starting at zero.

And I know players will say that many shoes start off with a mildly negative count and rebound to a positive count. Sure of course they do. But my goal isn't just a positive count....it is a max bet positive count and that becomes less likely.....not impossible....but less likely. I will take my chances playing the next round at zero rather than TC -1 (running count -8).