The general idea seems to bet high when the count is high, and low when the count is low. But hold on. So what if the count is high??? That may increase your chances of getting a good hand, but it does the exact same thing to all the people at the table, and more importantly, to the dealer. The count could be high, but all those high cards could be dealt to other players and not you. So what's the real advantage to counting??? Is it better to try and play one on one with the dealer????
Why is counting so good?
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Yes, the dealer will get better hands when the count is good just like the player will. However, the player gets several advantages from high counts that the dealer does not.
When you get a blackjack, you get paid 3:2. The dealer wins only even money when he gets a blackjack. Also, the dealer must hit until they reach 17. When the deck is full of high cards, the dealer is therefore more likely to bust. The player is able to stand on stiff hands when appropriate and therefore doesn't have as high a bust percentage due to the high count.
Nonetheless, the fact that the dealer can get good cards as well as the player is one of the reasons that the advantage to be gained by card counting is relatively small. It is rare for the player advantage on a particular hand to be more than about 5%.
When you get a blackjack, you get paid 3:2. The dealer wins only even money when he gets a blackjack. Also, the dealer must hit until they reach 17. When the deck is full of high cards, the dealer is therefore more likely to bust. The player is able to stand on stiff hands when appropriate and therefore doesn't have as high a bust percentage due to the high count.
Nonetheless, the fact that the dealer can get good cards as well as the player is one of the reasons that the advantage to be gained by card counting is relatively small. It is rare for the player advantage on a particular hand to be more than about 5%.
5% sounds good to me. Did you mean .5%? I know we are supposed to boycott the single deck 6/5 tables. If I wanted to try counting wouldn't a single deck game still yield a player advantage even though BJ pays 6/5? I understand I can expect maybe 2 blackjacks an hour, but wouldn't advantage playing still yield a profit on one of these tables? I tend to learn in steps. I am fine with basic strategy and flat betting the few times a year I go to a casino and would be interested in adding the next step. For me, initially I would think a single deck game would be easier to master even with the 6/5 BJ. I hate to admit this, but the math involved converting the count and watching the discards to determine the number of decks played seems like a lot out of the box. We did however bypass every 6/5 table we came across to honor the boycott. Oh, Ken I watched a repeat of the Blackjack Final on the GSN last week. Sorry you did not fair better. I did feel a little better about my own play seeing an expert at BJ not get the cards. I always feel a little down when I loose because I just can't get the cards.
The point of mentioning the 5% number is to show that even when the player does get an advantage, it's still relatively small.
To have a 5% edge on the next hand, the true count would need to be around +11 or so, which happens around once every 200 hands or so in a decent two-deck game.
Now, for simplicity, we'll assume your big bet is $100. With a $100 bet on this hand, your expected value on this hand is only $5. Obviously, you're still not that much of a favorite to win this particular hand.
Now, I'm definitely not saying that card counting isn't worth the effort. Indeed, it's the repetition of all these small edges that add up to a significant profit potential. I'm just trying to make readers understand that it is a game of small profits here and there that add up over time. It is very much worth the effort to learn.
On counting at 6:5, yes, you could beat this game with a large bet spread. However, it is still much easier to beat the six-deck game than this single deck with the crippling payout on blackjack. If converting to a true count seems like too much work, play the six-deck game using a count like the KO. It doesn't require true count conversion, and is still quite effective. There are other threads on KO here, and the book is available in the store.
On my TV appearances: They all tend to end the same way lately! I make a big double down that is critical to my success, and lose it. That's the way WSOB 2004 ended for me. That's the way WSOB 2005 ended in the first round for me. And, that's the way my appearance in the Las Vegas Hilton's Million Dollar II ended for me in the semifinals.
Oh well. My day will come eventually. If I continue getting to that point in these events, a payday is out there waiting for me.
To have a 5% edge on the next hand, the true count would need to be around +11 or so, which happens around once every 200 hands or so in a decent two-deck game.
Now, for simplicity, we'll assume your big bet is $100. With a $100 bet on this hand, your expected value on this hand is only $5. Obviously, you're still not that much of a favorite to win this particular hand.
Now, I'm definitely not saying that card counting isn't worth the effort. Indeed, it's the repetition of all these small edges that add up to a significant profit potential. I'm just trying to make readers understand that it is a game of small profits here and there that add up over time. It is very much worth the effort to learn.
On counting at 6:5, yes, you could beat this game with a large bet spread. However, it is still much easier to beat the six-deck game than this single deck with the crippling payout on blackjack. If converting to a true count seems like too much work, play the six-deck game using a count like the KO. It doesn't require true count conversion, and is still quite effective. There are other threads on KO here, and the book is available in the store.
On my TV appearances: They all tend to end the same way lately! I make a big double down that is critical to my success, and lose it. That's the way WSOB 2004 ended for me. That's the way WSOB 2005 ended in the first round for me. And, that's the way my appearance in the Las Vegas Hilton's Million Dollar II ended for me in the semifinals.
Oh well. My day will come eventually. If I continue getting to that point in these events, a payday is out there waiting for me.