Will blackjack go anywhere any time soon?

SPX

Well-Known Member
#1
Blackjack is the most popular table game in the casino. It makes the casinos a ton of money. But we also know they are paranoid as hell of card counters.

Is there any possibility that the whole blackjack enterprise will basically just fade away, or perhaps more likely, that casinos will universally adopt game standards that render counting null and void.

They could certainly do it, after all. From the way people talk I can gather than playing against against an 8 deck shoe is borderline not even worth it. What if ALL casinos go 8 deck with 50% penetration? Or how about a 10 deck shoe? Wouldn't 10 decks just be too much trouble and signal the end?

I mean, look at the single deck situation in LV right now. From what I understand, it's basically all 6:5 and getting worse, not better. So is it a real stretch of the imagination to believe that one day in the maybe-not-too-distant future that the shoe game will also be wreck?
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#2
SPX said:
Blackjack is the most popular table game in the casino. It makes the casinos a ton of money.
Blackjack makes almost no money per square foot compared to slot machines, not to mention paying dealers, PB's etc.

Casinos would love for nothing more to get rid of it altogether.

They're already doing a fine job of that.

They won't use more decks, they'll just make rule changes.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#3
Well, look at craps. The rules haven't even particularly changed, but it's substantially less popular than it was in the olden days.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#4
Yes, but casinos still make a lot of money on table games. Almost all of the "whale" super-high rollers play table games, the majority on blackjack, but a lot on baccarat. And many people that play tables might dabble in slots. Blackjack makes plenty of money. It's games like roulette that might be gone in 30 years, because they don't have the hold like slots and they don't attract high rollers.

People have been asking this question since the early 1960's. And today, I would argue blackjack is better than its ever been. More good games available, more dealers to take advantage of, because its become so prolific.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#5
I agree with moo321. The games today are full of opportunities. The rules are definitely going to change in the future, but I don’t think the game will ever be unbeatable. Every time the casinos change the rules they make the game vulnerable in other ways. If the casinos think that their games are safe then you will be able to get away with very aggressive play without getting heat. In some cases, change can be the best thing to happen to the game for both sides.

-Sonny-
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#6
take a look at Florida right now. the slots only casino's are slobbering all over themselves in anticipation of getting the right to offer blackjack.
 

rogue1

Well-Known Member
#7
The Hot Shoe

The Hot Shoe said they tried to tighten up the rules way back in 1964-problem was nobody showed up for the games-couple weeks later they went back to the old rules. Heck, the casinos know they could go to CSM's tomorrow or cut a 8 deck shoe in the middle-if people perceive that the game can't be beat maybe the table would go empty. I'm not sure if people today would do what people did in '64 (not show up for the games I mean) after all nowadays people living in the middle of major cities buy water in a bottle.
Go figure.
 
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ihate17

Well-Known Member
#8
They keep trying a failing

The casinos and their partner firms such as Shufflemaster and Alliance Gaming have been trying to make blackjack completely unwinable and controlable like slots and every single attempt has been either a complete or limited FAILURE, including 6/5 single deck.

To explain:
6/5 single deck is generally only found on the lowest limit tables. You might find the rare black chip player on the table (might be me if the dealer is flashing her hole card) but mostly you find low limit players who net the casino minimal profits. You might say that due to the cost of running the game the casino needs to charge these low limit players a higher rental for the seat, so they pay 6/5.

The CSM was invented to end cardcounting and get 20% more hands dealt for the casino per hour. A win/win situation according to shufflemaster, who has yet to figure out that if the players do not play, it is a lose/lose situation.
So what happened: Very quickly after the advent of the CSM the casinos had to reduce their use to again, only the lowest of limit tables because people betting green chips and higher refused to play and moved to other casinos that did not use CSM's.

Electronic Tables: There have been several different types of these made where each player has a screen, the cards are electronic and the one I am most familar with used a live dealer handling the payouts. Here the deck is an electronic image, the game may or may not be shuffled after each hand.
I have seen this table at casinos that also had regular tables but they are gone now. What I never did see was any person ever playing on one of these tables. I do remember a small casino in California that on a Saturday evening had people waiting on every single table unable to get a seat and the electronic table just sitting at the end of the pit idle for the whole evening. Again people did not play and the things disappeared.

Mindplay21: A few years back Alliance and Bally Gaming came up with what they sold to greedy and paranoid casinos as the perfect blackjack complete system. Not only did Mindplay keep a count, but most importantly it would enable the casino to reduce pit and eye salaries, stop counting, stop cheating and reduce the amount of comps on blackjack. Besides all that, since it also kept a count and knew the Exact Order of Every Single Card in the Stack!!! It could be used for cheating as the El Dorado in Reno had done.
The results: Well, good counters figured out how to fool the machine quickly and very effectively since surviellence was depending on the machine to do their work. A lawsuit was brought against the El Dorado. The pit figured out that the thing wanted their job and mysteriously it was always breaking down.
And surprise surprise, no one every asked the players if they would play against a weird machine that knew in advance what cards the players and dealers would get. Tried at the Hilton in Vegas when the Hilton had a good solid blackjack customer base and the result was the Hilton no longer has their old players and Mindplay is long gone. Tried at the Flamingo which did not have a good solid base of players, still does not have the players and Mindplay is gone from there also. No Mindplay devices in Vegas today.

They will keep trying to actually fix what does not need fixing. The casinos are winning good money on blackjack because the public plays so bad but just knowing that a few people can beat it, that there are salaries, sick days, medical and retirement money involved in the game and it can not presently be tightly controlled like a slot, the manufacturers like Shufflemaster know that they can continue to sell junk, even if it does not work, to the casinos for millions and millions. Why? Because the casinos are so paranoid and greedy that they will believe the promises of the manufacturers.

This is now and the immediate futre. Expect pretty much the same but someday these manufacturers might come up with a completely controllable blackjack game that the ploppy with black chips will play and then it will most likely be over for us. What these companies, the casinos and even us on this board fail to generally understand is that the real power and future of blackjack is in the hands of that terrible blackjack player who along with similar players, put enough money on the table to impact the casino bottom line. When he fails to play the game controlling device always will be a loser!
The is Ploppy Power

ihate17
 

toastblows

Well-Known Member
#9
EasyRhino said:
Well, look at craps. The rules haven't even particularly changed, but it's substantially less popular than it was in the olden days.
I notice that in Vegas, but in the midwest where they have live craps...few and far between way up here...its very very popular.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#10
Attracting one whale, or a dozen high rollers is generally worth more than going 6/5 on all your games. That's why Harrah's and the other corps are stupid; not because they're successful in thwarting counters, but because they don't realize that raising the hold from 16 to 18% while cutting the drop in half DOESN'T INCREASE PROFITS!

The most profitable casinos get high roller action, offer good games to increase the drop, and deal deeply. Solo counters at the low black level or lower simply don't represent a threat. If the casinos just trained their staff to be able to spot huge betting spreads, and added better pen, they'd make a ton of money.

To me, it's like a sales manager yelling at his best $ volume salesman because he spends too much time closing deals, and doesn't meet his cold-call quota.
 

jimpenn

Well-Known Member
#11
WWa Daily BJ Table Revenue

BJ Tables are averaging $2,600 per table according to a report I read last night. $637 daily poker table average revenue. In addition, in West Va. daily room rentals increased 15% since introduction of BJ and other table games.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#12
Wow, that's a good window into how poker players get jack for comps. :)

It also explains how, one day after winning one extremely large hand at a small Indian casino, the PC mentioned that his numbers were shot for the day. :grin:
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#13
jimpenn said:
BJ Tables are averaging $2,600 per table according to a report I read last night. $637 daily poker table average revenue. In addition, in West Va. daily room rentals increased 15% since introduction of BJ and other table games.
Probably no way of telling but would you assume that $2600/table/day covers 3- card poker, 4-card poker, Let-it-ride, Blackajck and also maybe craps and roulette?

It is nice to see the ripple effect it has had on other games and services.
 

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#14
You mis-speak, good sir. "Jack" would be an excellent amount of comps, compared to what poker players actually get.

Last I checked, it was in the order of $0.40 / hour. Play all day, and you'll have enough comps to maybe pay for your gas back to the freeway. Maybe.

=)

EasyRhino said:
Wow, that's a good window into how poker players get jack for comps. :)

It also explains how, one day after winning one extremely large hand at a small Indian casino, the PC mentioned that his numbers were shot for the day. :grin:
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#15
halcyon1234 said:
You mis-speak, good sir. "Jack" would be an excellent amount of comps, compared to what poker players actually get.

Last I checked, it was in the order of $0.40 / hour. Play all day, and you'll have enough comps to maybe pay for your gas back to the freeway. Maybe.

=)
Depends on where you play. I hear California is better in some places.
 
#16
Well,

My observations after playing in AC for the last 20 years is that the number of tables have declined dramatically, but in a few joints like Bally's, they seem to be growing. Remember that when a whale comes to town, they usually bring a spouse who often plays the high end slots, so they aren't losing as much as they think. I have spoken to several casino exec's over the last few years and they all want more BJ tables, but the bean counters are holding them back. Harrah's is especially stupid when they try to cut employee's and put a restaurant manager in the casino to run slots or table games and they have absolutely NO idea how to run a casino game. I play almost exclusively at Tropicana and so far, conditions aren't bad at all.

It's definitely getting worse overall, but I don't think they are stupid enough to eliminate the game completely. We need to make some little flyers outlining how bad a 6/5 or HS17 game is to the player and leave them all around the casino and bathrooms for players to find. If more people understood just how bad those games were, maybe they would stop playing them and then the casinos would remove them!

I think they need to bring back Slingo BJ red/black!! WooHoo!!

JMHO

Good luck everyone!


M@21
 
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#17
Master@21 said:
We need to make some little flyers outlining how bad a 6/5 or HS17 game is to the player and leave them all around the casino and bathrooms for players to find. If more people understood just how bad those games were, maybe they would stop playing them and then the casinos would remove them!

I'm not sure if any of these people can read let alone comprehend the distinction between H17 or 6/5 in the rules.
 

Doofus

Well-Known Member
#18
El Gordo said:
I'm not sure if any of these people can read let alone comprehend the distinction between H17 or 6/5 in the rules.
Face it, 95% of people are just oblivious or just don't care. My last Vegas trip, I tried several times to explain to my traveling companions that they were giving up a 10 times greater edge to the house by playing 6-5 single deck BJ in that fancy strip casino they like than I was playing 3-2 SD at that Fremont Street dive. They just didn't care, and thought I was from Mars for not wanting to play with them at that fancy casino they just adore.

They also get blizted at the tables, while I drink nothing stronger than a Diet Coke. And they can't understand why I am "lucky" and they aren't!
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#19
Doofus said:
Face it, 95% of people are just oblivious or just don't care. My last Vegas trip, I tried several times to explain to my traveling companions that they were giving up a 10 times greater edge to the house by playing 6-5 single deck BJ in that fancy strip casino they like than I was playing 3-2 SD at that Fremont Street dive. They just didn't care, and thought I was from Mars for not wanting to play with them at that fancy casino they just adore.

They also get blizted at the tables, while I drink nothing stronger than a Diet Coke. And they can't understand why I am "lucky" and they aren't!
But high rollers don't think the same way as the $5 donks. That's why blackjack baccarat and craps, the games with the lowest house edge, are the most popular with high rollers.
 

Doofus

Well-Known Member
#20
moo321 said:
But high rollers don't think the same way as the $5 donks. That's why blackjack baccarat and craps, the games with the lowest house edge, are the most popular with high rollers.
Are you sure? I was in the high limit room at Bellagio recently, and some guy with about 50 grand sitting in front of him was drunk out of his mind and asking me advice about splitting and doubling (I was standing beside him, trying to backcount the table to see if I wanted in). I couldn't discern any playing skill differences between people based on their bankrolls. Admittedly this is just an impression based on personal observation.
 
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