will I win in the long run this way?

[socal_bj]

After "practicing" my Zen counting for several weeks, I've decided to move up and play the $25 tables, Double Deck (.40 % off the top house edge) since it's the best odds available to me at my local casino but they don't offer this game at a $10 limit. The penetration varies between 66% to 75% depending on the dealer.

I think with a $10,000 per year bank roll, I should be able to ride out the negative swings but I would be very stressed out if I should lose thousands before I even start winning. I haven't won yet and I'm currently down $1,100 after 4 sessions. So I want to limit my loses up front until I start winning & building a base.

I've betting the $25 when the count is zero or slightly negative. If the count goes negative more then -4 and I lose the next hand, I stay out until the next shuffle. If the TC goes to +3 then I bet $50, +5 I bet $75. If the count goes above +7 then I play TWO hands of $50 each (I risk $100 but lower my volatility by spreading it among two hands).

So my question is....will this conservative betting spread prevent me from winning in the long run or is it enough to give me a positive edge?

 

[richieb9669]

On dd my spread is 1-8 or 1-12 it depends on where I am playing. I feel your spread is to low. To really answer your question someone here will hopefully run a sim for you. So I apologize for not having the info your looking for

 

[Midwestern]

spreading 1-4 is not very profitable in your play-all situation.

you should either spread higher (although it does not look like you have the BR to do that) or do some aggressive wonging to avoid unfavorable counts.

i do believe you can beat a .40HE game spreading 1-4 if you come in at T+1 minimum.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

Try to get it heads up without other ploppies. Other players kill your EV more at the SD/DD games than at the shoe games. A full or almost full DD table is useless. If there are 2 DD tables, 1 with 3 attractive girls playing and another one empty you play at the empty table if you want to win (this actually happened to me in Vegas and I picked the obvious AP choice). It's +EV to split face cards at a low count to clear a table.

 

[Thunder]

After "practicing" my Zen counting for several weeks, I've decided to move up and play the $25 tables, Double Deck (.40 % off the top house edge) since it's the best odds available to me at my local casino but they don't offer this game at a $10 limit. The penetration varies between 66% to 75% depending on the dealer.

I think with a $10,000 per year bank roll, I should be able to ride out the negative swings but I would be very stressed out if I should lose thousands before I even start winning. I haven't won yet and I'm currently down $1,100 after 4 sessions. So I want to limit my loses up front until I start winning & building a base.

I've betting the $25 when the count is zero or slightly negative. If the count goes negative more then -4 and I lose the next hand, I stay out until the next shuffle. If the TC goes to +3 then I bet $50, +5 I bet $75. If the count goes above +7 then I play TWO hands of $50 each (I risk $100 but lower my volatility by spreading it among two hands).

So my question is....will this conservative betting spread prevent me from winning in the long run or is it enough to give me a positive edge?

You're not going to win much at all with that spread. I'd wong out at -2 as that should help a lot.

 

[shadroch]

After almost ten years of playing BJ with an advantage, i'd say the bottom line is that about 1% of people who attempt to make money playing BJ actually get to that point.

 

[FLASH1296]

I use the same estimate as Shadroch — about 1%, but I imagine that it is much less than that. One Percent just stumbles off my tongue with relative ease.

To socal_bj:

The game your playing has too big a House Advantage for that spread.
You will garner some profits at 6-1, but 8-1 will serve your needs better.

Unfortunately with your bankroll you are facing down a very real likelihood of losing ALL of your bankroll.

This is so — because your Risk Of Ruin is frightfully HIGH, and you cannot reduce it by betting at lower stakes.

Ergo, as you progressively lose money, your chances of getting your pockets emptied actually grows apace.

If I were you, I would cease and desist, as you are playing a game at a barely break-even level, while risking all of your cash.

"A word to the wise is sufficient"

"Forewarned is forearmed."

 

[Sonny]

After "practicing" my Zen counting for several weeks...

Are you using the regular Zen count (with true count conversions) of the unbalanced Zen count (just the running count)? If it's the regular version then you should probably be raising your bets before +3 and hitting your top bet before +7. You won't see TCs that high very often so the majority of your profits come from the "warm" counts and not the "hot" counts.

-Sonny-

 

[socal_bj]

Yes I am using regular (complete, balanced) Zen. In a 6 hour session (400 hands) I see counts above +7 maybe 8 times. I practice the Zen count all the time on Casino Verite, so I know I'm doing it accurately. I can count down two decks in just over 1 minute (32 secs each deck).

If I adjust my betting to go to $50 on +2 counts instead of waiting for +3 counts. Then $75 on +4 counts, and spread to two hands at $50 on +5 counts, then spread two hands at $75 on +7 counts will this give me a positive edge? I hesitate to put $100 on any one hand b/c sometimes I have to split and double down and if it doesn't go well I'd be wiped out for the day. The most money I bring to a session is $1,400 and I have yet to get completely wiped out, sometimes I'll go down to $200 but climb back up over $1,000 by the end of the session.

I ideally, I don't like to play head to head b/c I like to stop when the count is too negative, so I prefer one or two other people to play with me.

Also, instead of committing $10K, if I commit more money, like $15K or $20K will that help me survive negative swings?

I also have a wealthy friend who wants to give me money to play but I would feel bad if I lost her money so I'm not going to take it.

 

[Friendo]

I hesitate to put $100 on any one hand b/c sometimes I have to split and double down and if it doesn't go well I'd be wiped out for the day. The most money I bring to a session is $1,400

I'm fairly new to this, with only a few months at the tables, so you should weigh my advice less heavily than that of the battle-hardened veterans around here, but I thought I'd comment because I'm in a similar phase of adjusting to the risk.

I play 6-deck and 8-deck shoes, with the same maximum bet, so my risk level is lower than yours, though with a lower EV.

I bring $5K to the casino for a day: I aim to avoid leaving for any other reason than exhaustion, the casino closing, or other life responsibilities.

Each trip, I tell myself that today might be the day I leave it all at the casino. Indeed, I intend to play long enough for this to happen.

I have found it most helpful to frame this activity in the following manner:

I am purchasing a few hundred thousand hands of blackjack over the next few years. I will be selling those hands back to the house at about $100.60 for every $100 invested on their purchase, but payment will be sporadic: sometimes early and sometimes so late as to put me temporarily in the red. But no payments will be more than a few years late, and there will be very few of those, as long as I continue to purchase more hands.

I could also tell you to think of the money as toilet paper, or coupons good only for blackjack play, but the above is what works for me.

Keep in mind that the vast majority of those who have made large sums of money, whether in the financial markets, business, or blackjack, have also lost large sums of money along the way - in some cases, most or all of their bankroll. I'm certain that those who play blackjack, count correctly, and use proportional betting do far better on a year-over-year percentage gain basis than Donald Trump has done with the money he inherited, albeit on a far smaller scale.

 

[tribute]

After almost ten years of playing BJ with an advantage, i'd say the bottom line is that about 1% of people who attempt to make money playing BJ actually get to that point.

As a percent of amount wagered, how much do those people make?

 

[shadroch]

As a percent of amount wagered, how much do those people make?

How could anyone answer that?

 

[Cardcounter]

If you do it properly and don't make to many playing errors like staying on soft 18 vs 9 than yeah I would say that you would have a 1% to 2% edge on the game.

 

[FLASH1296]

Cardcounter,

You would do well to tighten up your syntax and expand upon your reply better.

The question is … "how much money as a percentage of money wagered …do THESE PEOPLE …"


Presuming that the question referred to a (rookie) Card Counter (as described) playing a marginal game (as described) with a weak spread (as described) some minor fraction of 1% would be the correct answer.

A skillful player with a better spread could earn 1% and a heavy spread with Hi-Opt II, side counted 7's and Aces, and a full array of departure indices, presuming 60%+ penetration could approach, a 2% profit figure.

 

[kewljason]

Cardcounter,

You would do well to tighten up your syntax and expand upon your reply better.

The question is … "how much money as a percentage of money wagered …do THESE PEOPLE …"


Presuming that the question referred to a (rookie) Card Counter (as described) playing a marginal game (as described) with a weak spread (as described) some minor fraction of 1% would be the correct answer.

A skillful player with a better spread could earn 1% and a heavy spread with Hi-Opt II, side counted 7's and Aces, and a full array of departure indices, presuming 60%+ penetration could approach, a 2% profit figure.

I think you are giving Hi-Opt II too much credit my friend Flash, even with side counts, but that's our ongoing discussion that we won't go into here.

I think in today's environment, anyone who reaches a 1% advantage in the long run by counting cards, or even comes reasonably close, is doing quite well. When I read the books from the 70's and 80's, not to mention 60's that talk about acheiving a 2% edge, I just hate the fact that I was so late to the table. :sad: Nothing I can do about when I was born, but that doesn't stop my jealousy and hate those of you that were able to play during that era. (not really hate in the true sense of 'hate'. :laugh

 

[bigplayer]

spreading 1-4 is not very profitable in your play-all situation.

you should either spread higher (although it does not look like you have the BR to do that) or do some aggressive wonging to avoid unfavorable counts.

i do believe you can beat a .40HE game spreading 1-4 if you come in at T+1 minimum.

This is not a 1-4 spread (25 to 2x50 works out to 1-3 when heads up due to card eating). Even with other players it's like 1-3.5. Not big enough to have a useful edge. If he wins it will be pure luck.

This game is good, he should be spreading at least $25 to $150 on one spot heads up. If playing with others he should play something like $25 to 2x$100. There is still a pretty good chance of a significant draw down but a 10K bankroll is not irreplaceable. I peg his risk of ruin for perfect play $25 to $150 heads up one spot h17 das double deck 75% pen at 9% with a win/100 rounds of around $68. If playing with others you can mitigate the cost of card eating and the extra off the top rounds by simply sitting out anytime your negative RC gets worse than say -15 and make your neighbors have those cards or use that time to make a phone call or go to the bathroom.

 

[socal_bj]

Thanks for the advice. I've been taking more money with me to sessions and have been spreading two hands at $100 each on the +7 or higher counts, and two hands at $75 for the "warm" counts. When the count is too negative, I just stay out (or I request a new shuffle which they allow if I convince everyone at the table to request a new shuffle)

I'm starting to win back my losses and have had 3 out of 4 winning sessions. I've played about 2,000 hands since taking your advice and I can tell it's working because my down swings are much smaller than my upswings (hope this continues). I like this double deck game. Most of the dealers deal deep like over 75% to 80% penetration. I have noticed that it's better to bet $100 with 4 green chips then putting a black chip out there because the dealer will sometimes call out "black action" if you use black chips.

 

[Tree]

When the count is too negative, I just stay out (or I request a new shuffle which they allow if I convince everyone at the table to request a new shuffle)

I have never played at a casino that allows that

They always laugh when I ask.

 

[The Chaperone]

After "practicing" my Zen counting for several weeks, I've decided to move up and play the $25 tables, Double Deck (.40 % off the top house edge) since it's the best odds available to me at my local casino but they don't offer this game at a $10 limit. The penetration varies between 66% to 75% depending on the dealer.

I think with a $10,000 per year bank roll, I should be able to ride out the negative swings but I would be very stressed out if I should lose thousands before I even start winning. I haven't won yet and I'm currently down $1,100 after 4 sessions. So I want to limit my loses up front until I start winning & building a base.

I've betting the $25 when the count is zero or slightly negative. If the count goes negative more then -4 and I lose the next hand, I stay out until the next shuffle. If the TC goes to +3 then I bet $50, +5 I bet $75. If the count goes above +7 then I play TWO hands of $50 each (I risk $100 but lower my volatility by spreading it among two hands).

So my question is....will this conservative betting spread prevent me from winning in the long run or is it enough to give me a positive edge?

You won't win mostly because your head is in the wrong place.

Is your bankroll 10k or is it something less? You say you have 10k, but then you say you don't want to lose thousands? Wha? There's no way of magically winning without a bankroll. If there were this game would be much easier for people getting started.

BigPlayer is right. You need to spread more aggressively. Even more aggressively than you are now. Try 2x100 at TC4. Otherwise you are just sitting there waiting all day and not getting a high enough percentage of your money out with the edge vs. without an edge.

 

[socal_bj]

This game is AWESOME. I love it. I've been spreading more aggressively (from $25 to $200) as you have all advised and I've been winning like crazy. Now I have the luxury of playing with my winnings so I have no problems spreading agressively.

This double deck game is so great and I'm getting 80% penetration most of the time.

They give me $50 of comps a day for meals and they have great restaurants. I go there 4 times a week so that's $800 a month in free meals. Very cool!