Win/lose ratio for BS

[Mixolydian87]

Where can I find the % of winning hands you get just playing pure perfect BS?

Assuming 10,000 hands, dealer stands on all 17s, DAS, 3:2 BJ, 6 decks and late surrender.

Its not 50/50 is it?

 

[shadroch]

Closer to 43%. 48% you lose,the rest you tie.

 

[Sonny]

Here you go:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7446
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

-Sonny-

 

[Mixolydian87]

Hm, only 43% win?

Why does the house always have an advantage in this game?
They are pretty limited on what they can do, they cant split or anything.

Maybe there is room for improvment in basic strategy?

How can I check that the decisions you make using basic strategy are really the best choice?

I mean idk about you guys, but when it comes to my money I dont think I just wanna take a charts word for it...

 

[Sonny]

Hm, only 43% win?

Yup. The house is going to win 48% of the hands you play and there’s not much you can do about it.

Why does the house always have an advantage in this game?

Because the player automatically loses if he busts, even if the house busts too. The house has the advantage because the player has to act first.

How can I check that the decisions you make using basic strategy are really the best choice?

You can compare the EVs of each play to verify that you are making the best decision. You can find the EVs for each hand here:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/ev.htm (Archive copy)

-Sonny-

 

[Mixolydian87]

If BS you win 43% of the time what does that go up to if you play the I-18?

 

[Sonny]

If BS you win 43% of the time what does that go up to if you play the I-18?

I don't know. It probably doesn't change much. In fact, it might even decrease since you are doubling more often. Either way I don't think it will make much difference in the W/L percentages.

-Sonny-

 

[Mixolydian87]

-.- then the point of index plays are?

 

[sagefr0g]

-.- then the point of index plays are?

save you and make you money when your betting up according to the count for the positive matices. just they raise your ev for a set of hands for a given count. so in the negative counts you might lose a little less.

 

[Sonny]

-.- then the point of index plays are?

To earn more money, not to win more hands. When you double down you will win less often because you only get one more card, but when you win you will win twice as much. The win percentage goes down but the advantage goes up. The EV charts above will indicate this.

The hit/stand indices will help you win more often but I don't know how much of an overall effect they have.

-Sonny-

 

[Mixolydian87]

When you double down you will win less often because you only get one more card, but when you win you will win twice as much.
-Sonny-

But win you lose... you lose twice as much as you bet... and you win less often as you said... so where is the edge?

Your bet is 25 you DD and lose more often as you said, well then yours losing more 50's then your winning huh?

 

[Guynoire]

I think in high counts your winning percentage actually goes down a little because your push percentage goes up. The most common push is 20 v 20 which is more likely in high counts.

 

[callipygian]

If BS you win 43% of the time what does that go up to if you play the I-18?

The 43% figure includes not only I-18, but all ~100 strategy changes that occur between TC's of -10 and +10.

If you don't make any basic strategy changes, you will win less than 43%.

 

[Sonny]

But win you lose... you lose twice as much as you bet... and you win less often as you said... so where is the edge?

The edge comes from the fact that you are winning more money even though you are winning it less often. For example, let's say that a hand has a 60% chance of winning if you stand but only a 56% chance of winning if you double. Look at the EVs:

STAND:
0.6*1 - 0.4*1 = 20% advantage

DOUBLE:
0.56*2 - 0.44*2 = 24% advantage

Even though you are losing more often you are making more money by doubling. Your win percentage goes down but your advantage goes up.

-Sonny-

 

[Mixolydian87]

but all the same, when you are betting that extra money, and your win rate goes down, then unless your getting blackjacks you are still losing more money then winning, in that given time, it seems.

I don't know what those .6*1 figures are or where your getting them so doesnt help explenation, sorry..

 

[callipygian]

I don't know what those .6*1 figures are or where your getting them so doesnt help explenation, sorry..

I mean this in the best possible way, so don't think I'm being a jerk.

I really, really, think you need to do a lot more reading before you think about card counting. This is the second big red warning flag you've given off (the first was not knowing what true count was) that suggests you're not ready.

Card counting relies on a lot of math. That means understanding things like probability and expected value and variance. If you don't understand the basics, it will be very difficult to master the advanced topics.

 

[Mixolydian87]

When did I say I didn't know what true count was? I use KO and dont refer to it as such in other posts, I believe you were speaking of hi-lo.

My problems before where finding problems in peoples math, seems like its a guessing game in KO as many peoples key counts or "pivots" as you say seems to be in compeletly different places.

 

[Sonny]

I don't know what those .6*1 figures are or where your getting them so doesnt help explenation, sorry..

Those are the Expected Values for each play. I am multiplying the bets by their probabilities. My example assumes that there are no ties, so the formula is:

EV = Probability of a win * Winning payout + Probability of a loss * losing payout
STAND EV = 60% * 1 Unit – 40% * 1 unit
STAND EV = 0.6 - 0.4 = 0.2 = 20%

DOUBLE EV = 56% * 2 Units – 44% * 2 units
DOUBLE EV = 1.12 – 0.88 = 0.24 = 24%

but all the same, when you are betting that extra money, and your win rate goes down, then unless your getting blackjacks you are still losing more money then winning, in that given time, it seems.

No, you are winning more money than you are losing because the advantage is positive. If the numbers were negative then the player would not have an advantage. For example, an EV of –0.6% means the player will expect to lose 0.6% of the money he bets. An EV of 24% means that he will expect to win 25% of the money he bets.

-Sonny-

 

[Mixolydian87]

Cool that makes more sense thanks.

 

[bj bob]

I don't know. It probably doesn't change much. In fact, it might even decrease since you are doubling more often. Either way I don't think it will make much difference in the W/L percentages.

-Sonny-

I'm not so sure about that, especially in pitch games. Take the 13 v. 2 hit / stand for example. If the TC is just fairly to significantly negative, hitting on all those hands is called for, thus giving the player an opportunity to significantly improve his hand; whereas the "blind" BS player has no chance other than resorting the dealer bust odds which, in this case are even lower (neg. count) than average.