Win Rate poll

What is you sim estimated Win Rate??? Dollars for Hour

  • 0-10

    Votes: 5 14.3%
  • 10-20

    Votes: 6 17.1%
  • 20-30

    Votes: 6 17.1%
  • 30-40

    Votes: 4 11.4%
  • 40-50

    Votes: 3 8.6%
  • 50-70

    Votes: 3 8.6%
  • 70-90

    Votes: 4 11.4%
  • 90-110

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 110-140

    Votes: 2 5.7%
  • 140 or more

    Votes: 2 5.7%

  • Total voters
    35

daniel27

Well-Known Member
Maybe for the new ones (like me) i would be ussefull to know what is the Win Rate of most AP in this forum, in that way implementing a bet spread it will be easy.
The Poll is annonimus of course , and the idea is put the win rate of the strategy - spread used (by sim cvcx for example), no the real in real life.
 

boneuphtoner

Well-Known Member
As a red chipper with a relatively conservative spread and semiwonging, my win rate doesn't look very impressive...according to CVCX most of the conditions give me around $18/hour.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
I just never get how anyone can focus on only win rate without also acknowledging risk.

I may as well bet on the Steelers to cover by 10 and the only final score I know is Steelers 54.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
He wants the win rate of our sims. Now if we were talking actual results, then I would. :joker:
Yeah, I'm also $0-$10 on both counts. But I did misread the OP and think it was about my actual win rates.

sagefr0g said:
i'm 0-10 on both counts.:rolleyes:
sup minimum wage buddy
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
I just never get how anyone can focus on only win rate without also acknowledging risk.

I may as well bet on the Steelers to cover by 10 and the only final score I know is Steelers 54.

The NFL doesn't specify how many total games have been played as there is some disagreement involving the early games. We do know that there has been 256 regular season games for the 20 years since they went to 16 game schedules. Prior to that there were roughly 196 games per year dating back another 20 years while the seasons were 14 games.

So lets just go with the past 40 years. Over 10,000 games. In that time there have only been 1 occassion that a team scored 54 points and didn't win by more than 10 points. Cinn defeated cleveland 58-48 on Nov 28, 2004

Chances of this bet being a loser seems pretty low risk to me. :laugh:
 

daniel27

Well-Known Member
thanks

well, thanks all for your time, i hope this help others , like help me.
Daniel
the only question is over 100 /hr is for counting (large BR) only or a combination with advanced skills??
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
daniel27 said:
well, thanks all for your time, i hope this help others , like help me.
Daniel
the only question is over 100 /hr is for counting (large BR) only or a combination with advanced skills??
It's possible to do with a decent bankroll in a good game with straight counting. Theoretically, with a SCORE of 50, you would have a 100/hr winrate with a 20k bank.
 

daniel27

Well-Known Member
moo321 said:
It's possible to do with a decent bankroll in a good game with straight counting. Theoretically, with a SCORE of 50, you would have a 100/hr winrate with a 20k bank.
Full Kelly??
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
In that time there have only been 1 occassion that a team scored 54 points and didn't win by more than 10 points. Cinn defeated cleveland 58-48 on Nov 28, 2004

Chances of this bet being a loser seems pretty low risk to me. :laugh:
:grin:

Yeah - Cincy was favored by 6.

I had Cleveland lmao.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
daniel27 said:
Full Kelly??
I'm sure that is what moo meant.

In other words risk would be the same with $20K but you'd have to double your dollar unit to double the win rate to $100/hr.

Or, you could keep your $unit the same as you would have had with $10K and just play with a much lower risk with a $20K roll while still making the $50/hr.

Or you could double your dollar unit with just $10K and still make $100/hr. But with much higher risk of ruin.

My point being don't just focus on win rate. Understand the risk too.

I'm just speculating here but I'd guess the really good, real-life guys here like Sonny, RJT, others, probably consider risk first, last and always and let EV fall where it will to have that risk. And that that risk is pretty darn low, or I mean lower than what alot might think is "acceptable".

So, if Sonny posted a $20 win rate here, I'd guess it's with a risk of less than 2%. Probably 1% or less. (I really have no idea - don't mean to put you on any "spot" Sonny) I'd guess, when playing different games. or same game at differing pen levels, he uses a spread that will maintain a constant risk he is comfortable with to his roll. And likely spends some time figuring out how much roll to take on a trip lasting 8-50 hours duration to keep his risk on that trip where he wants it to be.

I'd be absolutely shocked if they played at a 4% or more risk.

If someone else posts $20 win rate here, who knows what risk is associated with it?

I'd much rather know what lifetime risks people here play at, or think they are playing at, or what they think would be an "acceptable" risk, than what their win rate is.

Somebody do a poll on that lol.
 
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