Win Rate?

[Small Pennies]

I hear everyingthing from 1.5 to 3 units per hour. What is the best way to compute win rate. I spread 1-20. My min bet is 15 in negative count. I don't have a set amount to bet at each true count. If its really high I bet as much as 3 hands of 200. If i'm up alot I take shots at 1000 bets sometimes. My spread is crazy but I'm only doing it in really postive counts. How do I find my expected value. Oh, and penetration is usually really good. 75 to 80..

 

[kewljason]

first of all you haven't given nearly enough information to figure a win rate. What game are you playing? # decks, rules, penetration, ect. It's like asking "if I put some money away each month, how much will I have after 2 years?" Secondly, it would be very difficult to come up with a "winrate" that has any degree of accuracy if you are betting different amounts in the same situation. (sometimes my max bet is this, other times I take a shot with this)
You also would need a very sizable bankroll.

On the plus side, your betting structure would provide excellent cover. The casinos would most likely peg you as a gambler and for good reason with statement like "sometimes I take a shot" and some of the other statements you have previously posted.

 

[Nazgul]

The best way is to run your strategy through a simulator to get very accurate results. The next best way is to use frequency distributions to calculate your results. The next best way is to use the charts in BJA.

 

[kewljason]

The best way is to run your strategy through a simulator to get very accurate results. The next best way is to use frequency distributions to calculate your results. The next best way is to use the charts in BJA.

not sure how "accurate" any of those options will be with a "sometimes I bet this and sometimes I bet that" betting structure. May be able to come up with a fuzzy estimate at best.

 

[Nazgul]

Agreed. The results can only be as accurate as the initial data. Like a trash compactor - you put garbage in and you get organized garbage coming out. Having organized garbage may or may not be helpful.

 

[Kasi]

What is the best way to compute win rate. I spread 1-20.

Buy a sim and run 1 sim for each different way/game you bet lol. Only 1 win rate per sim is allowed lol. Unfortunately, sims have the problem of only being able to deal with 1 case at a time.

In your case, you will apparently have many, many different win rates lol.

Btw, a sim won't know whether you are behind or ahead when you choose to move to a $1000 bet or 3 hands at $200 lol. Or what a "really high" count means, etc lol.

Somewhere in your question, you may even want to ask about risk to roll too since, obviously you are subjecting your roll to many, many different risks lol. Or, maybe after all, apparently win rate is the only thing that matters to you anyway.

Things get a little easier anyway if, by chance, one actually chooses to bet 2 hands in a row the same way in the same game lol.