I posted this question on another board, but received not the answer, I was looking for. In BJ, there are many hands, called losing hands(hands, where the probability of winning is less than 50%). I want to know, which of these hands change into winning hands(probability of winning more than 50%), because we have reached a certain +TC.(I am thinking of all the stiff dealers up cards) Who has the numbers?
winning hand/losing hand
- Thread starter steve
- Start date
Here are some sites I've found fun in terms of statistics:
BJ Stats. Sortable tables and charts. I don't think I saw exactly what you are looking for, but close.
(Dead link: http://bjstats.com/bjsc.asp)
Wizard of Odds. Lots of probabilities, including win/loss on any composition of hands. Doesn't include changes w/ TC, though.
http://www.wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjapx5.html
Please post to this list if you find anything better. Of course, knowing the percentage win/lost at a given TC for any dealer upcard/your first cards combo would be a 3-dimensional chart -- kind of difficult to read. Also, it is completely irrelevant to playing strategy, but I agree its fun to know this stuff.
RC
BJ Stats. Sortable tables and charts. I don't think I saw exactly what you are looking for, but close.
(Dead link: http://bjstats.com/bjsc.asp)
Wizard of Odds. Lots of probabilities, including win/loss on any composition of hands. Doesn't include changes w/ TC, though.
http://www.wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjapx5.html
Please post to this list if you find anything better. Of course, knowing the percentage win/lost at a given TC for any dealer upcard/your first cards combo would be a 3-dimensional chart -- kind of difficult to read. Also, it is completely irrelevant to playing strategy, but I agree its fun to know this stuff.
RC
Your definition of a losing hand:
hands, where the probability of winning is less than 50%
The correct definition of a losing hand:
The EV is negative.
You are asking, which hands change from a negative EV to a positive EV with a high enough count.
One that comes to mind, e.g., is doubling 7 vs. 5 (single deck).
There are many others.
--Mayor
hands, where the probability of winning is less than 50%
The correct definition of a losing hand:
The EV is negative.
You are asking, which hands change from a negative EV to a positive EV with a high enough count.
One that comes to mind, e.g., is doubling 7 vs. 5 (single deck).
There are many others.
--Mayor
Re: ???
Hammer wrote: "I don't care what the book says"
Then why are you posting here? The first lesson of advantage play is "the math never lies." If you can make a good argument, like "doubling 7 on a 5 increases variance with little increase in EV, and thus is not worth it in a risk-adverse strategy," then please do.
Yeah, that's right, a newbie is doggin' your post...
RC
Hammer wrote: "I don't care what the book says"
Then why are you posting here? The first lesson of advantage play is "the math never lies." If you can make a good argument, like "doubling 7 on a 5 increases variance with little increase in EV, and thus is not worth it in a risk-adverse strategy," then please do.
Yeah, that's right, a newbie is doggin' your post...
RC
Re: ???
Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack gives the indices for doubling not only 7 vs. 5, but 7 vs. 3.
Such plays are routine by professional players.
Please look at Wong's PBJ and its tables, it is the bible on hi-lo.
I know a player who goes by the handle of "Doubledown" who knows ALL of the doubling indices, down to doubing 5 vs. 2, which he claims he has correctly done based on the count exactly once.
--Mayor
Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack gives the indices for doubling not only 7 vs. 5, but 7 vs. 3.
Such plays are routine by professional players.
Please look at Wong's PBJ and its tables, it is the bible on hi-lo.
I know a player who goes by the handle of "Doubledown" who knows ALL of the doubling indices, down to doubing 5 vs. 2, which he claims he has correctly done based on the count exactly once.
--Mayor
indices say never dbl 7 here it is...
this is from a n average of over 12 books/and software comprised
into one chart..
HI-LO count strategy for four or more deck games where doubling down is permitted after splitting: Player's
Hand Dealer's Upcard
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 A
8 12 HD 8 HD 6 HD 4 HD 2 HD 16 HD H H H H
9 1 HD -1 HD -3 HD -5 HD -7 HD 3 HD 7 HD H H 15 HD
10 -11 HD -13 HD -14 HD -15 HD -17 HD -7 HD -5 HD -2 HD 3 HD 3 HD
11 -15 HD -17 HD D D D -10 HD -7 HD -5 HD -5 HD 1 HD
12 3 HS 2 HS 0 HS -2 HS -1 HS H H H H H
13 -1 HS -2 HS -4 HS -5 HS -5 HS H H H H 16 HS
14 -4 HS -5 HS -6 HS -8 HS -8 HS 18 HS 18 HS H 12 HS 12 HS
15 -6 HS -7 HS -8 HS -10 HS -10 HS 10 HS 9 HS 7 HS 3 HS 9 HS
16 -9 HS -10 HS -11 HS -12 HS -13 HS 9 HS 7 HS 4 HS 0 HS 8 HS
17 S S S S S S S S S -7 HS
A2 11 HD 7 HD 3 HD 0 HD -3 HD H H H H H
A3 12 HD 6 HD 2 HD -2 HD -5 HD H H H H H
A4 H 6 HD 0 HD -5 HD -16 HD H H H H H
A5 13 HD 4 HD -4 HD -10 HD D H H H H H
A6 1 HD -4 HD -11 HD D -17 HD H H H H H
A7 0 SD -3 SD -7 SD -8 SD -11 SD S S H H 0 HS
A8 7 SD 5 SD 3 SD 1 SD 1 SD 17 SD S S S S
A9 10 SD 8 SD 7 SD 5 SD 5 SD S S S S S
AA -14 XP -16 XP P -17 XP -16 XP -12 XP -11 XP -10 XP -12 XP -6 XP
22 -2 XP -6 XP -5 XP -6 XP -9 XP -14 XP 4 XP X X X
33 0 XP -3 XP -4 XP -6 XP -11 XP P 4 XP X X X
44 X 8 XP 3 XP -1 XP -2 XP -20 PX X X X X
55 X X X X X -17 PX -18 PX X X X
66 -2 XP -4 XP -7 XP -8 XP -10 XP X X X X X
77 -9 XP -9 XP -10 XP -12 XP -13 XP -17 XP 6 XP X X X
88 P P P P P P P P 7 PX -18 XP
99 -3 XP -5 XP -5 XP -7 XP -8 XP 3 XP -8 XP -8 XP X 4 XP
1010 10 XP 9 XP 6 XP 5 XP 4 XP 14 XP X X X X
this is from a n average of over 12 books/and software comprised
into one chart..
HI-LO count strategy for four or more deck games where doubling down is permitted after splitting: Player's
Hand Dealer's Upcard
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 A
8 12 HD 8 HD 6 HD 4 HD 2 HD 16 HD H H H H
9 1 HD -1 HD -3 HD -5 HD -7 HD 3 HD 7 HD H H 15 HD
10 -11 HD -13 HD -14 HD -15 HD -17 HD -7 HD -5 HD -2 HD 3 HD 3 HD
11 -15 HD -17 HD D D D -10 HD -7 HD -5 HD -5 HD 1 HD
12 3 HS 2 HS 0 HS -2 HS -1 HS H H H H H
13 -1 HS -2 HS -4 HS -5 HS -5 HS H H H H 16 HS
14 -4 HS -5 HS -6 HS -8 HS -8 HS 18 HS 18 HS H 12 HS 12 HS
15 -6 HS -7 HS -8 HS -10 HS -10 HS 10 HS 9 HS 7 HS 3 HS 9 HS
16 -9 HS -10 HS -11 HS -12 HS -13 HS 9 HS 7 HS 4 HS 0 HS 8 HS
17 S S S S S S S S S -7 HS
A2 11 HD 7 HD 3 HD 0 HD -3 HD H H H H H
A3 12 HD 6 HD 2 HD -2 HD -5 HD H H H H H
A4 H 6 HD 0 HD -5 HD -16 HD H H H H H
A5 13 HD 4 HD -4 HD -10 HD D H H H H H
A6 1 HD -4 HD -11 HD D -17 HD H H H H H
A7 0 SD -3 SD -7 SD -8 SD -11 SD S S H H 0 HS
A8 7 SD 5 SD 3 SD 1 SD 1 SD 17 SD S S S S
A9 10 SD 8 SD 7 SD 5 SD 5 SD S S S S S
AA -14 XP -16 XP P -17 XP -16 XP -12 XP -11 XP -10 XP -12 XP -6 XP
22 -2 XP -6 XP -5 XP -6 XP -9 XP -14 XP 4 XP X X X
33 0 XP -3 XP -4 XP -6 XP -11 XP P 4 XP X X X
44 X 8 XP 3 XP -1 XP -2 XP -20 PX X X X X
55 X X X X X -17 PX -18 PX X X X
66 -2 XP -4 XP -7 XP -8 XP -10 XP X X X X X
77 -9 XP -9 XP -10 XP -12 XP -13 XP -17 XP 6 XP X X X
88 P P P P P P P P 7 PX -18 XP
99 -3 XP -5 XP -5 XP -7 XP -8 XP 3 XP -8 XP -8 XP X 4 XP
1010 10 XP 9 XP 6 XP 5 XP 4 XP 14 XP X X X X
Re: indices say never dbl 7 here it is...
That your sources do not include indices for doubling 7's is not important to me. They are valid indices, of use to some players in some situations.
I must say, that if you continue in this manner, I am going to start removing your posts. The use or existance of these indices is not a topic of dicussion. The indices exist, have meaning, are important to some players and are used by those players, and are in Wong's book PBJ.
Please start over.
--Mayor
That your sources do not include indices for doubling 7's is not important to me. They are valid indices, of use to some players in some situations.
I must say, that if you continue in this manner, I am going to start removing your posts. The use or existance of these indices is not a topic of dicussion. The indices exist, have meaning, are important to some players and are used by those players, and are in Wong's book PBJ.
Please start over.
--Mayor
no problema
A few pros/books,etc do show slightly different
charts for basic strategy and indicies.
I merely pointed out this one,(also some show db12)
I thought we are to have valid
debates and discussions,if you still feel Iam still wrong
then I will gladly stop postings. But will continue my postings
to many members that have emailed me directly for some time now.
Not here to cause problems,just here to help and learn.
A few pros/books,etc do show slightly different
charts for basic strategy and indicies.
I merely pointed out this one,(also some show db12)
I thought we are to have valid
debates and discussions,if you still feel Iam still wrong
then I will gladly stop postings. But will continue my postings
to many members that have emailed me directly for some time now.
Not here to cause problems,just here to help and learn.
Re: no problema
Your right in saying that different professionals show different BS charts. You're wrong, however, in assuming that means their opinions differ when it comes to "the right play". At any one time, there's only ONE correct BS play. Stanford Wong prescribes a "generic BS" because he moves between single and multi-deck games and this form of BS lets him play any one of these. Some other authors prescribe BS for what they play. The BS of a single deck, double deck, 4-deck, 6-deck, etc. are all different, just like rule variations can cause the BS to differ. Index numbers also change with each of these variables. Performance numbers can also change. I believe the Mayor posted something on how KO Blackjack manipulated the conditions to suit their system better.
Regarding Stanford Wong and Doubling 7's, p. 46 of PBA (S17 Indices) show double 7 against 5 and 6 at +9, p. 48 of PBA (H17 Indices) show double 7 against 5 and 6 also at +9. p. 41 (Double Down S17 Table) shows the same thing, double 7 agains 5 and 6 at +9. To be fair, Stanford posted, it looks like, over 100 index numbers. I would only learn maybe the top 50 and thus far, it seems that doubling 7's wouldn't be on that list.
Mayor, are you sure that double down on a 7 is meant for the SD game? "One that comes to mind, e.g., is doubling 7 vs. 5 (single deck)." I thought PBJ was based on multi-deck games, and with the exception of Vegas SD games, most places don't allow doubling on 7's.
I think you're both right. Stanford DID publish doubling on 7, but many authors left it out because there's a lot more profitable index numbers to remember first.
Your right in saying that different professionals show different BS charts. You're wrong, however, in assuming that means their opinions differ when it comes to "the right play". At any one time, there's only ONE correct BS play. Stanford Wong prescribes a "generic BS" because he moves between single and multi-deck games and this form of BS lets him play any one of these. Some other authors prescribe BS for what they play. The BS of a single deck, double deck, 4-deck, 6-deck, etc. are all different, just like rule variations can cause the BS to differ. Index numbers also change with each of these variables. Performance numbers can also change. I believe the Mayor posted something on how KO Blackjack manipulated the conditions to suit their system better.
Regarding Stanford Wong and Doubling 7's, p. 46 of PBA (S17 Indices) show double 7 against 5 and 6 at +9, p. 48 of PBA (H17 Indices) show double 7 against 5 and 6 also at +9. p. 41 (Double Down S17 Table) shows the same thing, double 7 agains 5 and 6 at +9. To be fair, Stanford posted, it looks like, over 100 index numbers. I would only learn maybe the top 50 and thus far, it seems that doubling 7's wouldn't be on that list.
Mayor, are you sure that double down on a 7 is meant for the SD game? "One that comes to mind, e.g., is doubling 7 vs. 5 (single deck)." I thought PBJ was based on multi-deck games, and with the exception of Vegas SD games, most places don't allow doubling on 7's.
I think you're both right. Stanford DID publish doubling on 7, but many authors left it out because there's a lot more profitable index numbers to remember first.
Re: Indices for HiLo from -10 to 10?
Dear Elliot,
It seems that you would only use most of these indexes in a one deck game.
In which IMHO Hi-lo is a poor choice of strategy. If you play shoe games I have a really nice set of indices that I got from S-a-g-e.com and then expanded to include surrenderable hands (2 cards)and non surrenderable hands (3 or more).
I have simmed it to death and it works in the simms and it works in the Casino. Its the system I cut my teeth on. I'll even tell you the betting schedule that is synchonized with it. Yes all of this can be yours at the warehouse clearing price of $0.00. You may ask yourself . How can they do it for this phenomenally low price. Well my friend the answer is Volumn.
PS dyslexic atheists don't believe in dog
Stephen Bauer
Dear Elliot,
It seems that you would only use most of these indexes in a one deck game.
In which IMHO Hi-lo is a poor choice of strategy. If you play shoe games I have a really nice set of indices that I got from S-a-g-e.com and then expanded to include surrenderable hands (2 cards)and non surrenderable hands (3 or more).
I have simmed it to death and it works in the simms and it works in the Casino. Its the system I cut my teeth on. I'll even tell you the betting schedule that is synchonized with it. Yes all of this can be yours at the warehouse clearing price of $0.00. You may ask yourself . How can they do it for this phenomenally low price. Well my friend the answer is Volumn.
PS dyslexic atheists don't believe in dog
Stephen Bauer