Ever wished you were betting more in those negative counts when you just kept getting blackjack after blackjack? I finally did it. I don't know what possessed me but I got on a little streak when betting the minimum and switched to a 5 unit flat bet and kept getting 20's and blackjacks shoe after shoe so I kept the 5 unit bet out until I finally lost then switched back. I was laughing hysterically and shouting at the PB -- "I can't believe this" and stuff like that. It was great cover and I didn't even use a counting bet ramp or anything the whole time I was there. After that, it was time to go. That type of thing needs to happen more often.
Won 1500 dollars in negative counts
- Thread starter john
- Start date
What luck!
Winning is nice, lots of people win. That's why LV exists. I like to win. I really like to win.
I remember a night when this father and son sat to my left at a juicy double-deck game (80%+ pen) and didn't have a clue. They bet randomly $50 to $200, and would do things like stand on A-2 when the dealer had a bust card. They were drunk and could hardly hold their cards after a fashion. They won several thousand dollars, getting blackjack after blackjack. Meanwhile, I played 3 hours without getting a single blackjack and lost my shirt, counting like crazy.
Anecdotal incidents have nothing to do with the truths we all know. It is the reliance on anecdote that causes us to believe in crazy things. On the other hand, no anecdote has ever landed on the moon or discovered a cure for polio. Science solves problems. The only true solution to blackjack is the one science and mathematics has confirmed for us. All other solutions are false gods.
--Mayor
Winning is nice, lots of people win. That's why LV exists. I like to win. I really like to win.
I remember a night when this father and son sat to my left at a juicy double-deck game (80%+ pen) and didn't have a clue. They bet randomly $50 to $200, and would do things like stand on A-2 when the dealer had a bust card. They were drunk and could hardly hold their cards after a fashion. They won several thousand dollars, getting blackjack after blackjack. Meanwhile, I played 3 hours without getting a single blackjack and lost my shirt, counting like crazy.
Anecdotal incidents have nothing to do with the truths we all know. It is the reliance on anecdote that causes us to believe in crazy things. On the other hand, no anecdote has ever landed on the moon or discovered a cure for polio. Science solves problems. The only true solution to blackjack is the one science and mathematics has confirmed for us. All other solutions are false gods.
--Mayor
Nights like that are fun
Yeah, I'll never forget playing a week or two ago. Started off the shoe with 3 BJ's, and the 4th hand was split aces, winning both hands.
By this time, you can imagine what the count looked like, but I know better than to Wong out on a win so I kept playing for a loss. Couldn't lose. It was fun because I got to use a couple of rare index plays (draw 14 vs. 2 and such) and I finally lost one 2/3 into a 6D shoe and left, up $500. Too bad I didn't have this shuffle tracked, as I'd love to play those cards again.
Experiences like this only partially make up for the agony of doing everything right, getting your good counts, and losing your shirt.
Yeah, I'll never forget playing a week or two ago. Started off the shoe with 3 BJ's, and the 4th hand was split aces, winning both hands.
By this time, you can imagine what the count looked like, but I know better than to Wong out on a win so I kept playing for a loss. Couldn't lose. It was fun because I got to use a couple of rare index plays (draw 14 vs. 2 and such) and I finally lost one 2/3 into a 6D shoe and left, up $500. Too bad I didn't have this shuffle tracked, as I'd love to play those cards again.
Experiences like this only partially make up for the agony of doing everything right, getting your good counts, and losing your shirt.
Good opportunity to ask
One question that begins to come to my mind more and more often:
BJ advantage play works only when you go into big numbers. I ran a few simulations and, StanDev is worrying me.
Would it make any sense at all to play a few hours a couple of times a year? (there is no way I could play every week, maybe not even every month) I fear I could very well loose everything and it still wouldn't be surprising, because I would be playing too little to reach the critical numbers.
Am I being overly pessimistic?
Royam
One question that begins to come to my mind more and more often:
BJ advantage play works only when you go into big numbers. I ran a few simulations and, StanDev is worrying me.
Would it make any sense at all to play a few hours a couple of times a year? (there is no way I could play every week, maybe not even every month) I fear I could very well loose everything and it still wouldn't be surprising, because I would be playing too little to reach the critical numbers.
Am I being overly pessimistic?
Royam
Two Ways
In the end there are two ways to play Blackjack: right and wrong. You will gain hours as the years pass, thus taking you closer and closer to the proverbial long run. I don't think you can worry about that now. Take the game up as a hobby and do the best you can with it, while still having fun and acknowledging that time, which you currently do not have, is a necessity. Don't overbet, have a good time, let the cards fall where they may. Learn the math, master the psychology.
HJ
In the end there are two ways to play Blackjack: right and wrong. You will gain hours as the years pass, thus taking you closer and closer to the proverbial long run. I don't think you can worry about that now. Take the game up as a hobby and do the best you can with it, while still having fun and acknowledging that time, which you currently do not have, is a necessity. Don't overbet, have a good time, let the cards fall where they may. Learn the math, master the psychology.
HJ
Play when you can
It's a statistical fallacy promoted by those who don't truly understand the math that you can only make money in "the long term".
More accurately, you can only be *assured* of making money in the long term. But your advantage on your first night out counting is the same as it will be over your entire lifetime. My first 11 trips were winners. And I've had 3 losing trips in a row that almost bankrupted me. If my first 3 trips had been the losers, I'd likely have been disgusted by counting and given it up, believing I was not able to do it right.
In short, it doesn't matter how often or how long you count in terms of your percent advantage. Standard deviation is a different story. But your standard deviation is equally likely to be good as bad. So play your game, concentrate on what your role in the game is (counting and all the things that go with it) and hope for good variance.
It's a statistical fallacy promoted by those who don't truly understand the math that you can only make money in "the long term".
More accurately, you can only be *assured* of making money in the long term. But your advantage on your first night out counting is the same as it will be over your entire lifetime. My first 11 trips were winners. And I've had 3 losing trips in a row that almost bankrupted me. If my first 3 trips had been the losers, I'd likely have been disgusted by counting and given it up, believing I was not able to do it right.
In short, it doesn't matter how often or how long you count in terms of your percent advantage. Standard deviation is a different story. But your standard deviation is equally likely to be good as bad. So play your game, concentrate on what your role in the game is (counting and all the things that go with it) and hope for good variance.
what I like to do
Raise your spread to get a large win rate and win % . In my opinion, the better the winrate and win % and the lower the NO, the quicker you will see the results. Also, find a great game. I found a game here near my neck-of-the- woods with an off-the-top advantage. Yeah, I couldn't believe it. I could play basic strategy and still come away a slight winner. If you got the cash, and they let you play, you'd make a nice hourly wage off that.
Raise your spread to get a large win rate and win % . In my opinion, the better the winrate and win % and the lower the NO, the quicker you will see the results. Also, find a great game. I found a game here near my neck-of-the- woods with an off-the-top advantage. Yeah, I couldn't believe it. I could play basic strategy and still come away a slight winner. If you got the cash, and they let you play, you'd make a nice hourly wage off that.