wonging advantage

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

i thot about something.. i roughly calculated i have a .3% advantage, and to find my win rate (which i think is money won per hour right?) i used the usual calculation of .003(edge)*75(hph)*10(bet), but i dont think you can do it like that if your not playing all hands.. this is pretty straight forward, but ive been wrong before on simple things.. i have to multiply it by exactly how many hands i play, but more importantly because i didnt get that .3% from the negative hands, thus i cant assume play all for win rate right? since im playing with a .3% advantage only on the hands i play, which is +1 RC or better, i would have to figure out how many hands im playing per hour, which i guess i would do by looking at a frequency chart, which is how i calculated my edge in the first place, but i would think its close to 48%, since i play anything over zero, and clearly the count frequency is balanced on either side of zero.. this is all pretty easy, just wondering if there is anything else anybody wants to add, or worse, correct

 

[Sonny]

It looks like you're on the right track. You'll be playing about 36 hands per hour which gives you a .003*36*10 = $1.08/hr win rate. If you’re flat betting $10 then your SD will be about +/-$70 per hour.

-Sonny-

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

It looks like you're on the right track. You'll be playing about 36 hands per hour which gives you a .003*36*10 = $1.08/hr win rate. If you’re flat betting $10 then your SD will be about +/-$70 per hour.

-Sonny-

36 hands an hour is assuming 75 hands per hour right? thus 48% of my hands..

i really want to get a sim program, and i was wondering, which program should i get that can calculate stuff like: playing only certain run counts, the frequency of certain run counts (not true counts, because i play in between 0 and +1 TC, thus taking the frequency of either of those would be wrong), standard deviation, the effects of certain index plays, comparing a 1-2 spread to a 1-1 spread, comparing ko to hi-lo with flat bet wonging, etc.. i also dont think spending more than $100 is a wise investment either, unless i have to.. thanks

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, blackjackforumonline has a link to powersim, which is free. it's kind of clunky, but it's free. And it can answer basic questions like what are the effects of different rules or betting strategies on your game. Including the effect of wonging (just bet "zero" at certain counts).

If you actually want an easier interface or more options, qfit's software is real popular.

 

[Dog Hand]

CVData

i really want to get a sim program, and i was wondering, which program should i get that can calculate stuff like: playing only certain run counts, the frequency of certain run counts (not true counts, because i play in between 0 and +1 TC, thus taking the frequency of either of those would be wrong), standard deviation, the effects of certain index plays, comparing a 1-2 spread to a 1-1 spread, comparing ko to hi-lo with flat bet wonging, etc.. i also dont think spending more than $100 is a wise investment either, unless i have to.. thanks

CVData version 4, at $160, will do all that you ask and more. I highly recommend it. Furthermore, you cannot beat Norm's customer service!

http://www.qfit.com/ordersm.htm

Dog Hand

 

[Kasi]

i thot about something.. i roughly calculated i have a .3% advantage, and to find my win rate (which i think is money won per hour right?) i used the usual calculation of .003(edge)*75(hph)*10(bet), but i dont think you can do it like that if your not playing all hands.. this is pretty straight forward, but ive been wrong before on simple things.. i have to multiply it by exactly how many hands i play, but more importantly because i didnt get that .3% from the negative hands, thus i cant assume play all for win rate right? since im playing with a .3% advantage only on the hands i play, which is +1 RC or better, i would have to figure out how many hands im playing per hour, which i guess i would do by looking at a frequency chart, which is how i calculated my edge in the first place, but i would think its close to 48%, since i play anything over zero, and clearly the count frequency is balanced on either side of zero.. this is all pretty easy, just wondering if there is anything else anybody wants to add, or worse, correct

All I can add is don't forget that .3% is an average advantage based on a certain game dealt to a certain depth.

It certainly would change with different depths in the same game and in different games with different rules.

So multiplying all hands played by average advantage is fine as long as you realize that includes very high counts that occur infrequently. Just be aware that the majority of hands played are at a very low hoiuse edge, if any, and can definitely effect that number.

And don't forget there's no magic in expressing a win rate per hour. Fine if you want to but don't forget it's ok to figure it out per hand played if you want. Win rates per hour is a useful way of comparing different games, etc, but don't forget it's an outgrowth of win rate per hand.

All the more reason to include in your diary such things as penetration, rules, number of players at the table, etc.

As far as buying a sim, I'm not saying you have to right away. Checking out that free sim certainly can't hurt. But, eventually, it may more than pay for itself. Look at is as $1 a month for the next 12 years lol.

It may even give you different ideas on how to bet the same $2000 bankroll.
Maybe fewer hands per hour played but at a higher advantage with a higher unit with whatever risk of ruin.

BTW, as an aside, and neither here or there, but at what ROR do you think you're currently playing?

 

[mdlbj]

The best thing Mr. Sanford has done is coined the phrase Wong..

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

All I can add is don't forget that .3% is an average advantage based on a certain game dealt to a certain depth.

It certainly would change with different depths in the same game and in different games with different rules.

So multiplying all hands played by average advantage is fine as long as you realize that includes very high counts that occur infrequently. Just be aware that the majority of hands played are at a very low hoiuse edge, if any, and can definitely effect that number.

And don't forget there's no magic in expressing a win rate per hour. Fine if you want to but don't forget it's ok to figure it out per hand played if you want. Win rates per hour is a useful way of comparing different games, etc, but don't forget it's an outgrowth of win rate per hand.

All the more reason to include in your diary such things as penetration, rules, number of players at the table, etc.

As far as buying a sim, I'm not saying you have to right away. Checking out that free sim certainly can't hurt. But, eventually, it may more than pay for itself. Look at is as $1 a month for the next 12 years lol.

It may even give you different ideas on how to bet the same $2000 bankroll.
Maybe fewer hands per hour played but at a higher advantage with a higher unit with whatever risk of ruin.

BTW, as an aside, and neither here or there, but at what ROR do you think you're currently playing?

i have no idea what RoR im currently playing with, but id guess its over 20%

 

[Sonny]

i have no idea what RoR im currently playing with, but id guess its over 20%

It's probably more than double that. With a 200-unit bankroll, an EV of 0.003/hand and a SD of 1.16/hand your ROR comes out to around 41%. Of course, if you make any mistakes with your counting or playing, or the dealer decides to cut off a few extra cards, then your advantage turns negative and your ROR becomes 100%. Such a tiny advantage can disappear very easily.

-Sonny-