Wonging risk of ruin?

#1
Would anyone mind calculating my risk of ruin? There is little heat at my local casino but the rules aren't great. I am thinking about becoming good enough to back count 2 tables at once and wong in at counts of 3+.

Rules:

H17
DAS
1 Card on split aces, no RS
No surrender

Bankroll = $3500

Bet = 2 x 25 to 2 x 50 (recommendations appreciated)

although there is little heat NO ONE spreads there bets more than 2:1 at this casino so regular counting is practically off limits.

please make some recommendations to optimize my strategy. Thanks a lot.
 
#2
Decks, pen

mikeS said:
Would anyone mind calculating my risk of ruin? There is little heat at my local casino but the rules aren't great. I am thinking about becoming good enough to back count 2 tables at once and wong in at counts of 3+.

Rules:

H17
DAS
1 Card on split aces, no RS
No surrender

Bankroll = $3500

Bet = 2 x 25 to 2 x 50 (recommendations appreciated)

although there is little heat NO ONE spreads there bets more than 2:1 at this casino so regular counting is practically off limits.

please make some recommendations to optimize my strategy. Thanks a lot.
Hi Mike,

You don't mention the number of decks and pen. Also, you don't mention what ROR you're willing to accept. Full Kelly is about 13.5% and 1/2 Kelly, 1.83%. If you let me know, I'll sim this for you.

Cheers,

BJ Warrior
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#3
What are the mins? If they're below $25 I would start with a lower bet around $2, and then ramp up to max at about +5. Maybe 10 to 2x30.
 
#5
BJ Warrior said:
Hi Mike,

You don't mention the number of decks and pen. Also, you don't mention what ROR you're willing to accept. Full Kelly is about 13.5% and 1/2 Kelly, 1.83%. If you let me know, I'll sim this for you.

Cheers,

BJ Warrior
Thanks a lot.

6 Decks

cut off is usually 1.5. i know a couple of dealers who often cut off slightly more than 1.

I haven't decided what risk of ruin is acceptable. How much risk do most players here typically accept?
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#6
shinyam said:
You're not going to make any money with a $3500 bankroll.
I would have to flatly disagree with that. If you insist on less than 1% risk of ruin and play AC shoe games, maybe.

But back-counting decent games with a 5% ROR should get you over $20 an hour.
 
#7
Some thoughts

mikeS said:
Thanks a lot.

6 Decks

cut off is usually 1.5. i know a couple of dealers who often cut off slightly more than 1.

I haven't decided what risk of ruin is acceptable. How much risk do most players here typically accept?
Hi mike,

Re ROR, obviously with full Kelly, you have about a 1/7 chance of losing your bank before doubling, and with 1/2 Kelly, it's 1/50. Most pros use 1/2 or even 1/4, but they're playing to much larger banks. If you're working and can easily replenish your bank full Kelly should be okay, given that this is recreational play. If you can't afford to lose the bank, you might be better off not playing, and wait until you build your bank, because this is a pretty bad game, and you'll barely make a cent playing 1/2 Kelly.

I'm assuming that, given the game's low D.I. you'll be looking to wong this game, so I'll give you the bet ramp for Full Kelly, playing two hands in positive counts: +1-$5, +2-$15, +3- $25, +4-$39, +5-$49. I've modified this ramp, since the gains are minimal above this level, and with an eye to the spreading constraint you mentioned. Win per 100 is $15.51. If you truly can't play a spread above 1-2, you're better off flat-betting, only if you come in +2, and flat-betting $28 (obviously rounding to 25 or 30), for a $12.39 Win per 100. BTW, these bet ramps are from BJRM, and if you play seriously, you would be well served by getting a copy, or possibly better, Norm Wattenberger's CVCX.

If you have any questions, let me know. Bon chance.

Cheers,

BJ Warrior
 
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