Yet Another Insurance Question

[darco77]

I searched for the answer to this in both my book collection and the archives here, to no avail. Hope someone can help.

Assume you are playing a 6D game, using Hi Lo, and the TC is currently +4, which is an insurance count. As the next round of cards are dealt, a fleet of large cards find their way to the players, but the dealer makes out with an Ace up. The TC is now +2. Do you take insurance here?

(Conversely, another hypothetical situation would be where the TC moves from +2 to +4, but we'll stick with the scenario listed above.)

I can rationalize this either way - a Devil's Advocate for either side of the argument. However, I'm not looking to make the debate team, I'm looking for the right move.

Below is a sample of the debate that's been running through my head:

1) The obvious answer here is to not take insurance. All index moves should incorporate the current TC, as it reflects the make-up of the cards remaining in the deck. The current TC is +2, which is not an insurance count.

2) However, the dealer's hole card - along with his top card and each of the players' cards - was dealt when the TC was +4. The updated TC of +2 represents the make-up of the cards left in the shoe, not what's on the table. Hence, you take insurance.

3) Understandable, but incorrect. The dealer's hole card is still unknown. Hence, it should be considered part of the shoe. Use the updated TC of +2 and skip the insurance.

Clearly I'm overanalyzing this. If someone could break me out of this vicious internal debate I would greatly appreciate it :whip:

 

[Unshake]

You want to count all of the additional cards on the table before making the decision as it's more accurate. You have more information knowing those other cards. The same idea is why sitting at 3rd base is slightly more advantageous, because you are able to see more cards before making a decision (obviously this isn't true with insurance, but other index plays, as everybody makes the decision after seeing the same number of cards).

 

[EasyRhino]

Make the decision based on the instantaneous count.

 

[jnrwilliam]

whether to insur base on all the cards u have seen.

try to think it in a extreme case, suppose 100% pene, and all the cds r dealt,
RC is +1. what do u do?
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I searched for the answer to this in both my book collection and the archives here, to no avail. Hope someone can help.

Assume you are playing a 6D game, using Hi Lo, and the TC is currently +4, which is an insurance count. As the next round of cards are dealt, a fleet of small cards find their way to the players, but the dealer makes out with an Ace up. The TC is now +2. Do you take insurance here?

(Conversely, another hypothetical situation would be where the TC moves from +2 to +4, but we'll stick with the scenario listed above.)

I can rationalize this either way - a Devil's Advocate for either side of the argument. However, I'm not looking to make the debate team, I'm looking for the right move.

Below is a sample of the debate that's been running through my head:

1) The obvious answer here is to not take insurance. All index moves should incorporate the current TC, as it reflects the make-up of the cards remaining in the deck. The current TC is +2, which is not an insurance count.

2) However, the dealer's hole card - along with his top card and each of the players' cards - was dealt when the TC was +4. The updated TC of +2 represents the make-up of the cards left in the shoe, not what's on the table. Hence, you take insurance.

3) Understandable, but incorrect. The dealer's hole card is still unknown. Hence, it should be considered part of the shoe. Use the updated TC of +2 and skip the insurance.

Clearly I'm overanalyzing this. If someone could break me out of this vicious internal debate I would greatly appreciate it :whip:

 

[bj bob]

I searched for the answer to this in both my book collection and the archives here, to no avail. Hope someone can help.

Assume you are playing a 6D game, using Hi Lo, and the TC is currently +4, which is an insurance count. As the next round of cards are dealt, a fleet of small cards find their way to the players,. The TC is now +2. Do you take insurance here?

Excuse my confusion here, but how can the TC possibly decrease if the initial TC was +4 and was followed by a bunch of more small cards. That scenario would only cause the TC to rise.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

The insurance decision is gauging the probibility of the dealer having a ten in the hole, the dealers hole card is the last card to be dealt prior to making the insurance decision, so you count all of the cards on the table and base your insurance decision off of them.

 

[darco77]

Excuse my confusion here, but how can the TC possibly decrease if the initial TC was +4 and was followed by a bunch of more small cards. That scenario would only cause the TC to rise.

Good catch, bj bob. Error corrected.

 

[darco77]

Thanks for all the replies. The answer makes perfect sense now, and you've all saved me from an infinite loop of overanalysis :cool2:

 

[SleightOfHand]

Thanks for all the replies. The answer makes perfect sense now, and you've all saved me from an infinite loop of overanalysis :cool2:

Just remember, anytime you are making any decision, more (current) information is always better.

 

[ccibball50]

dont take it

I would not take insurance unless you are an avid shuffel tracker.

 

[SleightOfHand]

?!?!

I would not take insurance unless you are an avid shuffel tracker.

He's counting... With an accurate insurance index, he should absolutely take insurance when the index says so...

 

[Unshake]

I would not take insurance unless you are an avid shuffel tracker.

You don't know how to count/correctly use indices then... The insurance index is probably the most important one and you don't need to shuffle track to know when to take insurance. Keep using your insurance index usually ~+4 to the original poster.

 

[1357111317]

In my opinion the obvious answer is figure out what the count was when the dealers down card was dealt and use that to make your decision.

 

[Unshake]

In my opinion the obvious answer is figure out what the count was when the dealers down card was dealt and use that to make your decision.

But does it matter what the count was when the dealers down card was dealt or after the rest of the cards are out though? :joker: That was basically the initial question though, it doesn't matter because that down card is still an unknown, and thus you should make your decision on the instantaneous count.

 

[SleightOfHand]

In my opinion the obvious answer is figure out what the count was when the dealers down card was dealt and use that to make your decision.

But does it matter what the count was when the dealers down card was dealt or after the rest of the cards are out though? :joker: That was basically the initial question though, it doesn't matter because that down card is still an unknown, and thus you should make your decision on the instantaneous count.

Primenumbers is wrong here. Using the most current information is always better. Lets say that we have a deck of cards and we give the dealer an ace and an unknown card. At this point, the unknown can be pretty much anything, minus the ace, which means that taking insurance would be a bad idea. Then, we take the rest of the deck, and spread it so we can see all the cards. Counting them shows that there is a ten missing. Whats the chance that the dealer has a blackjack now?

 

[creeping panther]

Unshake

But does it matter what the count was when the dealers down card was dealt or after the rest of the cards are out though? :joker: That was basically the initial question though, it doesn't matter because that down card is still an unknown, and thus you should make your decision on the instantaneous count.

The count at the down card, you already know of the ace, it is what is under the ace, you are correct. I was taught this early on in my career by a very gifted PRO that I ran with.

CP

 

[1357111317]

Primenumbers is wrong here. Using the most current information is always better. Lets say that we have a deck of cards and we give the dealer an ace and an unknown card. At this point, the unknown can be pretty much anything, minus the ace, which means that taking insurance would be a bad idea. Then, we take the rest of the deck, and spread it so we can see all the cards. Counting them shows that there is a ten missing. Whats the chance that the dealer has a blackjack now?

Yeah thinking about this a second time I realize that I was originally wrong. Your right that you should take the count at its most current point, that way you have the most information.

 

[darco77]

Glad this thread got so much traction. Hopefully others besides myself got some answers from this. In this stage of my progression, some of the "obviously simple" questions are the most difficult :grin: