YTD Winnings?
- Thread starter NightStalker
- Start date
I'm not crazy about posting results mid year. We are only in the sixth inning. :laugh:
If I am going to post results, I have to give details because it hasn't been a smooth ride.
I am doing ok, plus 2120 units, at the moment. I was up 2035 units at the end of February, so the last 28 weeks have yeilded me an additional 85 units. Even worse is the fact that I am down just about 800 units from my high point of the year +2915 units back in early July, despite the fact that I have had limited play throughout the summer. My personal, worse backslide ever. But there is still time for (and hoping for) a strong finish. If nothing else, it confirmed a lesson I learned a long time ago. The need for a large bankroll to withstand such trying times.
If I am going to post results, I have to give details because it hasn't been a smooth ride.
I am doing ok, plus 2120 units, at the moment. I was up 2035 units at the end of February, so the last 28 weeks have yeilded me an additional 85 units. Even worse is the fact that I am down just about 800 units from my high point of the year +2915 units back in early July, despite the fact that I have had limited play throughout the summer. My personal, worse backslide ever. But there is still time for (and hoping for) a strong finish. If nothing else, it confirmed a lesson I learned a long time ago. The need for a large bankroll to withstand such trying times.
Looks like a pretty healthy graph to me Froggy. I remember that the red line represents your first involvement with the bash and things certainly went north for you after that. (except the days immediately following when there was a bit of a dip due to hangover/recovery reasons :laugh My question is did all other aspects of your game, like bet spreads and quality of games remain constant or did some things change at that point as you learned new AP methods and techniques?
I remember that the red line represents your first involvement with the bash and things certainly went north for you after that. (except the days immediately following when there was a bit of a dip due to hangover/recovery reasons :laugh My question is did all other aspects of your game, like bet spreads and quality of games remain constant or did some things change at that point as you learned new AP methods and techniques?
kewljason said:
Looks like a pretty healthy graph to me Froggy. I remember that the red line represents your first involvement with the bash and things certainly went north for you after that. (except the days immediately following when there was a bit of a dip due to hangover/recovery reasons :laugh My question is did all other aspects of your game, like bet spreads and quality of games remain constant or did some things change at that point as you learned new AP methods and techniques?
I remember that the red line represents your first involvement with the bash and things certainly went north for you after that. (except the days immediately following when there was a bit of a dip due to hangover/recovery reasons :laugh My question is did all other aspects of your game, like bet spreads and quality of games remain constant or did some things change at that point as you learned new AP methods and techniques?
far as blackjack game aspects, for the most part i'm stuck with the same crappy games with poor pen locally:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php?numdecks=6+decks&soft17=h17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=ls&peek=yes
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php?numdecks=2+decks&soft17=s17&dbl=d10&das=yes&surr=ns&peek=yes
i still only just have a 1:8 spread
sometimes with travel i can find better games, but even then my nerve fails me far as initiating a larger spread, even though my bankroll can now better support a higher spread.
for me, as far as things changing relative to bj stuff after having learned new AP stuff and having exchanged notes with other AP's, the thing that's changed for me has been philosophical, sort of.
like now i look at things on a play by play basis, whereas before how i looked at bj stuff was just sort of jumbled up, just i knew how to properly play bj sorta thing and went out and tried to do it. now it's more of an assault, a hunt, stalk the prey down and pounce, with definite range of results in mind sorta thing, lol. and far as bj, i tend to now use it as a stop gap sorta measure, a filler if you will, as the other AP stuff tends to have a lot of dead time and that time may be better spent giving bj a shot, sorta thing.
edit: errh just for the record the red line wasn't first involvement with the bash, there had been many other bash's before that red line bash. the red line bash represented learning some new AP stuff besides bj stuff.
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Not exactly sure what this means frog, but I have some, what I call 'blackjack related winnings' that I have not added into my blackjack total. It consists of a video poker royal flush win for 4 grand. What makes it blackjack related is that even though I only play blackjack, this particular casino gives me cashback in the form of slot dollars which must be played through once before cashing out. In the process of playing through...bingo...Royal flush, so indirectly it is blackjack winnings, but I don't really call it that. Doesn't really matter what I call it. It spends the same. :laugh:
right that's what i do with the first graph, it's just bankroll growth, however it was obtained, sorta thing.
the second graph was a value obtained other than currency sorta thing, comps stuff essentially.
that said there are other value considerations not included, such as say, what is the value of turning down your furnace when you are gone on a ten day trip in the middle of winter, sorta thing.
the second graph was a value obtained other than currency sorta thing, comps stuff essentially.
that said there are other value considerations not included, such as say, what is the value of turning down your furnace when you are gone on a ten day trip in the middle of winter, sorta thing.
Oh wow. I gottch ya. Being a single guy who usually eats at least one meal a day that I don't pay for, I often figured somehow I should figure that into earnings, but never have bothered. What about someone who lives in Vegas, but gets the hell out for the summer. Imagine the elctric bill savings. :laugh:
bingo!!
far as your question about any new way of dealing with blackjack since learning new AP stuff. well, i came away with a whole new appreciation for the concept of value.
heck lol, one guy at the bash got me to respecting the value of a hundredth of a cent, sorta thing, lol. no crap, it's important, those hundredths of a cent add up!
but yeah value comes in all kind of forms, it's an AP thing to find value far as i see it. heck doubtless it's can be a whole subject of study and reflection.
i mean i guess it can get kind of deep considering just these small excerpts form the kelly faq for example:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm (Archive copy)
Q7: How does taxation effect proper bet size?
A7: You should be sure to include the effects of taxation on your CE for they may be quite significant. Both your average win and your variance are reduced when your government reduces the magnitude of your results via income taxes due on wins and income tax refunds on losses. If you will be able to deduct net losses for income tax purposes (which is not necessarily possible in the United States, even for professionals) then the effect is to multiply your expected winnings E by (1-t) and your variance V by (1-t)^2 where "t" is your marginal tax rate. The net effect is to raise your optimal betting unit by a factor of 1/(1-t). Intuitively, a fraction "t" of every bet you make is not a bet by you, but by your government, so you must increase your betting unit until "your part" of the bet is optimal for you.
If your government does not allow income tax refunds on net losses, be sure to include that fact in your calculations! You will need to use your simulator, or approximations involving integrals of portions of a Gaussian bell curve to do this calculation. You must determine what the distribution of outcomes (i.e. profit) is for a calendar year's worth of card counting. Instead of averaging these raw values and finding their variance immediately, first subtract from all the positive outcomes the effect of taxation. Then compute the average and variance of all the values (including all the negative outcomes and adjusted positive outcomes) and plug the result into the formula for CE.
Q8: How big is my bankroll?
A8: The answer to this question is useful outside of blackjack. Your bankroll is your bankroll for all endeavors including stock market investments, house purchases, ..., and blackjack. It should *not* be divided up among your various investments. The full value should be used in calculations for any potential investment. If this bankroll size seems too large for you, see the answer to the questions "What is a good Kelly Number for me?"
According to utility theory purists your bankroll is your surplus assets plus the present value of your net income after reasonable living expenses. Your surplus assets are all your assets except those you need to maintain a sufficiently comfortable lifestyle. The present value of your net income after living expenses is the answer to the question: How much additional debt are you able to take on while still maintaining a sufficiently comfortable lifestyle?
Some Notes:
Be careful not to overcount any assets or liabilities. If you have $10,000 in a savings account you should either add that to your bankroll because it is an asset or include the interest it earns as net income that could be used to pay off additional debt, but not both! If you account for the $10,000 in one of these two ways, do not also include an additional $10,000 as an amount of debt you could pay off by draining your savings account. As another example, if you have a mortgage either subtract the amount of principal from your assets or include your mortgage payments as a living expense, but not both.
If you own a house which you consider necessary for a comfortable lifestyle and have a mortgage you must include your mortgage as a subtraction from assets or income even though you are not including your house as a surplus asset.
If your salary is *less* than your living expenses then you should *subtract* from your bankroll the amount on which you would need to be earning interest in order to maintain a sufficiently comfortable lifestyle.
far as your question about any new way of dealing with blackjack since learning new AP stuff. well, i came away with a whole new appreciation for the concept of value.
heck lol, one guy at the bash got me to respecting the value of a hundredth of a cent, sorta thing, lol. no crap, it's important, those hundredths of a cent add up!
but yeah value comes in all kind of forms, it's an AP thing to find value far as i see it. heck doubtless it's can be a whole subject of study and reflection.
i mean i guess it can get kind of deep considering just these small excerpts form the kelly faq for example:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm (Archive copy)
Q7: How does taxation effect proper bet size?
A7: You should be sure to include the effects of taxation on your CE for they may be quite significant. Both your average win and your variance are reduced when your government reduces the magnitude of your results via income taxes due on wins and income tax refunds on losses. If you will be able to deduct net losses for income tax purposes (which is not necessarily possible in the United States, even for professionals) then the effect is to multiply your expected winnings E by (1-t) and your variance V by (1-t)^2 where "t" is your marginal tax rate. The net effect is to raise your optimal betting unit by a factor of 1/(1-t). Intuitively, a fraction "t" of every bet you make is not a bet by you, but by your government, so you must increase your betting unit until "your part" of the bet is optimal for you.
If your government does not allow income tax refunds on net losses, be sure to include that fact in your calculations! You will need to use your simulator, or approximations involving integrals of portions of a Gaussian bell curve to do this calculation. You must determine what the distribution of outcomes (i.e. profit) is for a calendar year's worth of card counting. Instead of averaging these raw values and finding their variance immediately, first subtract from all the positive outcomes the effect of taxation. Then compute the average and variance of all the values (including all the negative outcomes and adjusted positive outcomes) and plug the result into the formula for CE.
Q8: How big is my bankroll?
A8: The answer to this question is useful outside of blackjack. Your bankroll is your bankroll for all endeavors including stock market investments, house purchases, ..., and blackjack. It should *not* be divided up among your various investments. The full value should be used in calculations for any potential investment. If this bankroll size seems too large for you, see the answer to the questions "What is a good Kelly Number for me?"
According to utility theory purists your bankroll is your surplus assets plus the present value of your net income after reasonable living expenses. Your surplus assets are all your assets except those you need to maintain a sufficiently comfortable lifestyle. The present value of your net income after living expenses is the answer to the question: How much additional debt are you able to take on while still maintaining a sufficiently comfortable lifestyle?
Some Notes:
Be careful not to overcount any assets or liabilities. If you have $10,000 in a savings account you should either add that to your bankroll because it is an asset or include the interest it earns as net income that could be used to pay off additional debt, but not both! If you account for the $10,000 in one of these two ways, do not also include an additional $10,000 as an amount of debt you could pay off by draining your savings account. As another example, if you have a mortgage either subtract the amount of principal from your assets or include your mortgage payments as a living expense, but not both.
If you own a house which you consider necessary for a comfortable lifestyle and have a mortgage you must include your mortgage as a subtraction from assets or income even though you are not including your house as a surplus asset.
If your salary is *less* than your living expenses then you should *subtract* from your bankroll the amount on which you would need to be earning interest in order to maintain a sufficiently comfortable lifestyle.
So far this year it looks like I have played right around 300 hours (time sitting at the table). The first half of the graph is mainly BJ related, and the second half of the graph is mostly playing other games with a few bj sessions mixed in. For an AP results graph I find this looks fairly linear, which I contribute mainly to team play and playing strong games. The axis' are in units and sessions.
I think I need to cancel my cable TV. It would be added value if I canceled my cable, since I watch so little TV at home now... and am instead spending that time playing rather than being a couch potato. Who needs all those hundreds of channels? Now that I think about it, I do watch a lot of TV at the casino...